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Towards a Bayesian Approach in Criminology: A Case Study of Risk Assessment in Youth Justice / Helen R. Hodges

DOI (Published version): 10.23889/Suthesis.48027

Abstract

This research makes a significant and original contribution to emerging debates within criminology and the social sciences more broadly, concerning the academic merit of using Bayesian statistics to analyse complex social problems, such as crime, with a view to promoting progressive and evidence-bas...

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Published: 2019
Institution: Swansea University
Degree level: Doctoral
Degree name: Ph.D
URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa48027
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first_indexed 2019-01-03T14:00:27Z
last_indexed 2019-10-21T16:52:50Z
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spelling 2019-01-04T14:53:59.3760549 v2 48027 2019-01-03 Towards a Bayesian Approach in Criminology: A Case Study of Risk Assessment in Youth Justice 2019-01-03 This research makes a significant and original contribution to emerging debates within criminology and the social sciences more broadly, concerning the academic merit of using Bayesian statistics to analyse complex social problems, such as crime, with a view to promoting progressive and evidence-based policy reform agendas. It uses the risk assessment process in youth justice as a case study to demonstrate the utility of adding Bayesian approaches in the standard analytical tool box used to investigate the aetiology of offending behaviours, particularly when dealing with relatively small data-sets.The findings presented reinforce that it is possible using a Bayesian approach to ‘do more with less’ in terms of the number of cases analysed, and model the impact on the likelihood of further offending of individual characteristics, offending history, different types of offending and contact with the youth justice system. In considering the implications of its findings, the thesis considers how adopting a post-positivist stance - as called for by critics of the risk assessment process used within youth justice in England and Wales – enables new insights to be offered concerning the complex relationship between the framework of risk and protective factors and offending behaviours.It is concluded that they are distinct advantages associated with the adoption of novel statistical techniques within criminology, especially at a time where there is an increased emphasis on making greater use of administrative data to develop robust evidence-based policy. E-Thesis Criminology, Bayesian, Youth Justice, Modelling 31 12 2019 2019-12-31 10.23889/Suthesis.48027 A selection of third party content is redacted or is partially redacted from this thesis. COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University Doctoral Ph.D 2019-01-04T14:53:59.3760549 2019-01-03T10:36:19.5059745 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Social Sciences - Criminology, Sociology and Social Policy Helen R. Hodges 1 0048027-03012019141200.pdf 2018_HODGES-807913-Thesis_Redacted.pdf 2019-01-03T14:12:00.6330000 Output 25948032 application/pdf Redacted version - open access true 2019-01-02T00:00:00.0000000 true
title Towards a Bayesian Approach in Criminology: A Case Study of Risk Assessment in Youth Justice
spellingShingle Towards a Bayesian Approach in Criminology: A Case Study of Risk Assessment in Youth Justice
,
title_short Towards a Bayesian Approach in Criminology: A Case Study of Risk Assessment in Youth Justice
title_full Towards a Bayesian Approach in Criminology: A Case Study of Risk Assessment in Youth Justice
title_fullStr Towards a Bayesian Approach in Criminology: A Case Study of Risk Assessment in Youth Justice
title_full_unstemmed Towards a Bayesian Approach in Criminology: A Case Study of Risk Assessment in Youth Justice
title_sort Towards a Bayesian Approach in Criminology: A Case Study of Risk Assessment in Youth Justice
author ,
author2 Helen R. Hodges
format E-Thesis
publishDate 2019
institution Swansea University
doi_str_mv 10.23889/Suthesis.48027
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Social Sciences - Criminology, Sociology and Social Policy{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Social Sciences - Criminology, Sociology and Social Policy
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description This research makes a significant and original contribution to emerging debates within criminology and the social sciences more broadly, concerning the academic merit of using Bayesian statistics to analyse complex social problems, such as crime, with a view to promoting progressive and evidence-based policy reform agendas. It uses the risk assessment process in youth justice as a case study to demonstrate the utility of adding Bayesian approaches in the standard analytical tool box used to investigate the aetiology of offending behaviours, particularly when dealing with relatively small data-sets.The findings presented reinforce that it is possible using a Bayesian approach to ‘do more with less’ in terms of the number of cases analysed, and model the impact on the likelihood of further offending of individual characteristics, offending history, different types of offending and contact with the youth justice system. In considering the implications of its findings, the thesis considers how adopting a post-positivist stance - as called for by critics of the risk assessment process used within youth justice in England and Wales – enables new insights to be offered concerning the complex relationship between the framework of risk and protective factors and offending behaviours.It is concluded that they are distinct advantages associated with the adoption of novel statistical techniques within criminology, especially at a time where there is an increased emphasis on making greater use of administrative data to develop robust evidence-based policy.
published_date 2019-12-31T03:58:18Z
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score 11.028798

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