No Cover Image

Journal article 287 views 16 downloads

Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries

Jane Pirkis, Ann John Orcid Logo, Sangsoo Shin, Marcos del Pozo Banos Orcid Logo, Vikas Arya, Pablo Analuisa-Aguilar, Louis Appleby, Ella Arensman, Jason Bantjes, Anna Baran, Jose M Bertolote, Guilherme Borges, Petrana Brečić, Eric Caine, Giulio Castelpietra, Shu-Sen Chang, David Colchester, David Crompton, Marko Curkovic, Eberhard A Deisenhammer, Chengan Du, Jeremy Dwyer, Annette Erlangsen, Jeremy S Faust, Sarah Fortune, Andrew Garrett, Devin George, Rebekka Gerstner, Renske Gilissen, Madelyn Gould, Keith Hawton, Joseph Kanter, Navneet Kapur, Murad Khan, Olivia J Kirtley, Duleeka Knipe, Kairi Kolves, Stuart Leske, Kedar Marahatta, Ellenor Mittendorfer-Rutz, Nikolay Neznanov, Thomas Niederkrotenthaler, Emma Nielsen, Merete Nordentoft, Herwig Oberlerchner, Rory C O’Connor, Melissa Pearson, Michael R Phillips, Steve Platt, Paul L Plener, Georg Psota, Ping Qin, Daniel Radeloff, Christa Rados, Andreas Reif, Christine Reif-Leonhard, Vsevolod Rozanov, Christiane Schlang, Barbara Schneider, Natalia Semenova, Mark Sinyor, Ellen Townsend, Michiko Ueda, Lakshmi Vijayakumar, Roger T Webb, Manjula Weerasinghe, Gil Zalsman, David Gunnell, Matthew J Spittal

The Lancet Psychiatry, Volume: 8, Issue: 7, Pages: 579 - 588

Swansea University Authors: Ann John Orcid Logo, Marcos del Pozo Banos Orcid Logo

  • 56357.pdf

    PDF | Accepted Manuscript

    ©2021 All rights reserved. All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License (CC-BY-NC-ND)

    Download (901.14KB)
  • 56357_Supplemental_Material.pdf

    PDF | Supplemental material

    ©2021 All rights reserved. All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License (CC-BY-NC-ND)

    Download (438.29KB)

Abstract

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic is having profound mental health consequences for many people. Concerns have been expressed that at its most extreme, this may manifest itself in increased suicide rates.MethodsWe sourced real-time suicide data from around the world via a systematic internet search an...

Full description

Published in: The Lancet Psychiatry
ISSN: 2215-0366
Published: Elsevier BV 2021
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa56357
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
first_indexed 2021-03-02T13:17:08Z
last_indexed 2021-08-14T03:20:16Z
id cronfa56357
recordtype SURis
fullrecord <?xml version="1.0"?><rfc1807><datestamp>2021-08-13T13:47:01.1601261</datestamp><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>56357</id><entry>2021-03-02</entry><title>Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>ed8a9c37bd7b7235b762d941ef18ee55</sid><ORCID>0000-0002-5657-6995</ORCID><firstname>Ann</firstname><surname>John</surname><name>Ann John</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author><author><sid>f141785b1c0ab9efe45665d35c081b84</sid><ORCID>0000-0003-1502-389X</ORCID><firstname>Marcos</firstname><surname>del Pozo Banos</surname><name>Marcos del Pozo Banos</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2021-03-02</date><deptcode>HDAT</deptcode><abstract>BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic is having profound mental health consequences for many people. Concerns have been expressed that at its most extreme, this may manifest itself in increased suicide rates.MethodsWe sourced real-time suicide data from around the world via a systematic internet search and recourse to our networks and the published literature. We used interrupted time series analysis to model the trend in monthly suicides prior to COVID-19 in each country/area-within-country, comparing the expected number of suicides derived from the model with the observed number of suicides in the early months of the pandemic. Countries/areas-within countries contributed data from at least 1 January 2019 to 31 July 2020 and potentially from as far back as 1 January 2016 until as recently as 31 October 2020. We conducted a primary analysis in which we treated 1 April to 31 July 2020 as the COVID-19 period, and two sensitivity analyses in which we varied its start and end dates (for those countries/areas-within-countries with data beyond July 2020).OutcomesWe sourced data from 21 countries (high income [n=16], upper-middle income [n=5]; whole country [n=10], area(s)-within-the-country [n=11]). In general, there does not appear to have been a significant increase in suicides since the pandemic began in the countries for which we had data. In fact, in a number of countries/areas-within-countries there appears to have been a decrease.InterpretationThis is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in multiple countries. It offers a consistent picture, albeit from high- and upper-middle income countries, of suicide numbers largely remaining unchanged or declining in the early months of the pandemic. We need to remain vigilant and be poised to respond if the situation changes as the longer-term mental health and economic impacts of the pandemic unfold.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>The Lancet Psychiatry</journal><volume>8</volume><journalNumber>7</journalNumber><paginationStart>579</paginationStart><paginationEnd>588</paginationEnd><publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint>2215-0366</issnPrint><issnElectronic/><keywords/><publishedDay>1</publishedDay><publishedMonth>7</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2021</publishedYear><publishedDate>2021-07-01</publishedDate><doi>10.1016/s2215-0366(21)00091-2</doi><url/><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Health Data Science</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>HDAT</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><lastEdited>2021-08-13T13:47:01.1601261</lastEdited><Created>2021-03-02T13:01:53.4158076</Created><path><level id="1">Swansea University Medical School</level><level id="2">Swansea University Medical School</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Jane</firstname><surname>Pirkis</surname><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Ann</firstname><surname>John</surname><orcid>0000-0002-5657-6995</orcid><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>Sangsoo</firstname><surname>Shin</surname><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>Marcos</firstname><surname>del Pozo Banos</surname><orcid>0000-0003-1502-389X</orcid><order>4</order></author><author><firstname>Vikas</firstname><surname>Arya</surname><order>5</order></author><author><firstname>Pablo</firstname><surname>Analuisa-Aguilar</surname><order>6</order></author><author><firstname>Louis</firstname><surname>Appleby</surname><order>7</order></author><author><firstname>Ella</firstname><surname>Arensman</surname><order>8</order></author><author><firstname>Jason</firstname><surname>Bantjes</surname><order>9</order></author><author><firstname>Anna</firstname><surname>Baran</surname><order>10</order></author><author><firstname>Jose M</firstname><surname>Bertolote</surname><order>11</order></author><author><firstname>Guilherme</firstname><surname>Borges</surname><order>12</order></author><author><firstname>Petrana</firstname><surname>Bre&#x10D;i&#x107;</surname><order>13</order></author><author><firstname>Eric</firstname><surname>Caine</surname><order>14</order></author><author><firstname>Giulio</firstname><surname>Castelpietra</surname><order>15</order></author><author><firstname>Shu-Sen</firstname><surname>Chang</surname><order>16</order></author><author><firstname>David</firstname><surname>Colchester</surname><order>17</order></author><author><firstname>David</firstname><surname>Crompton</surname><order>18</order></author><author><firstname>Marko</firstname><surname>Curkovic</surname><order>19</order></author><author><firstname>Eberhard A</firstname><surname>Deisenhammer</surname><order>20</order></author><author><firstname>Chengan</firstname><surname>Du</surname><order>21</order></author><author><firstname>Jeremy</firstname><surname>Dwyer</surname><order>22</order></author><author><firstname>Annette</firstname><surname>Erlangsen</surname><order>23</order></author><author><firstname>Jeremy S</firstname><surname>Faust</surname><order>24</order></author><author><firstname>Sarah</firstname><surname>Fortune</surname><order>25</order></author><author><firstname>Andrew</firstname><surname>Garrett</surname><order>26</order></author><author><firstname>Devin</firstname><surname>George</surname><order>27</order></author><author><firstname>Rebekka</firstname><surname>Gerstner</surname><order>28</order></author><author><firstname>Renske</firstname><surname>Gilissen</surname><order>29</order></author><author><firstname>Madelyn</firstname><surname>Gould</surname><order>30</order></author><author><firstname>Keith</firstname><surname>Hawton</surname><order>31</order></author><author><firstname>Joseph</firstname><surname>Kanter</surname><order>32</order></author><author><firstname>Navneet</firstname><surname>Kapur</surname><order>33</order></author><author><firstname>Murad</firstname><surname>Khan</surname><order>34</order></author><author><firstname>Olivia J</firstname><surname>Kirtley</surname><order>35</order></author><author><firstname>Duleeka</firstname><surname>Knipe</surname><order>36</order></author><author><firstname>Kairi</firstname><surname>Kolves</surname><order>37</order></author><author><firstname>Stuart</firstname><surname>Leske</surname><order>38</order></author><author><firstname>Kedar</firstname><surname>Marahatta</surname><order>39</order></author><author><firstname>Ellenor</firstname><surname>Mittendorfer-Rutz</surname><order>40</order></author><author><firstname>Nikolay</firstname><surname>Neznanov</surname><order>41</order></author><author><firstname>Thomas</firstname><surname>Niederkrotenthaler</surname><order>42</order></author><author><firstname>Emma</firstname><surname>Nielsen</surname><order>43</order></author><author><firstname>Merete</firstname><surname>Nordentoft</surname><order>44</order></author><author><firstname>Herwig</firstname><surname>Oberlerchner</surname><order>45</order></author><author><firstname>Rory C</firstname><surname>O&#x2019;Connor</surname><order>46</order></author><author><firstname>Melissa</firstname><surname>Pearson</surname><order>47</order></author><author><firstname>Michael R</firstname><surname>Phillips</surname><order>48</order></author><author><firstname>Steve</firstname><surname>Platt</surname><order>49</order></author><author><firstname>Paul L</firstname><surname>Plener</surname><order>50</order></author><author><firstname>Georg</firstname><surname>Psota</surname><order>51</order></author><author><firstname>Ping</firstname><surname>Qin</surname><order>52</order></author><author><firstname>Daniel</firstname><surname>Radeloff</surname><order>53</order></author><author><firstname>Christa</firstname><surname>Rados</surname><order>54</order></author><author><firstname>Andreas</firstname><surname>Reif</surname><order>55</order></author><author><firstname>Christine</firstname><surname>Reif-Leonhard</surname><order>56</order></author><author><firstname>Vsevolod</firstname><surname>Rozanov</surname><order>57</order></author><author><firstname>Christiane</firstname><surname>Schlang</surname><order>58</order></author><author><firstname>Barbara</firstname><surname>Schneider</surname><order>59</order></author><author><firstname>Natalia</firstname><surname>Semenova</surname><order>60</order></author><author><firstname>Mark</firstname><surname>Sinyor</surname><order>61</order></author><author><firstname>Ellen</firstname><surname>Townsend</surname><order>62</order></author><author><firstname>Michiko</firstname><surname>Ueda</surname><order>63</order></author><author><firstname>Lakshmi</firstname><surname>Vijayakumar</surname><order>64</order></author><author><firstname>Roger T</firstname><surname>Webb</surname><order>65</order></author><author><firstname>Manjula</firstname><surname>Weerasinghe</surname><order>66</order></author><author><firstname>Gil</firstname><surname>Zalsman</surname><order>67</order></author><author><firstname>David</firstname><surname>Gunnell</surname><order>68</order></author><author><firstname>Matthew J</firstname><surname>Spittal</surname><order>69</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>56357__19547__e933816c20b14558963bcb1f1a632c4f.pdf</filename><originalFilename>56357.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2021-03-24T15:48:36.5983689</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>922764</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Accepted Manuscript</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><embargoDate>2021-10-13T00:00:00.0000000</embargoDate><documentNotes>&#xA9;2021 All rights reserved. All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License (CC-BY-NC-ND)</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>eng</language><licence>https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/</licence></document><document><filename>56357__19548__87f2e6f83aa74048bf7399dd8e1b7c13.pdf</filename><originalFilename>56357_Supplemental_Material.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2021-03-24T15:49:51.2488775</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>448805</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Supplemental material</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><embargoDate>2021-10-13T00:00:00.0000000</embargoDate><documentNotes>&#xA9;2021 All rights reserved. All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License (CC-BY-NC-ND)</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>eng</language><licence>https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/</licence></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807>
spelling 2021-08-13T13:47:01.1601261 v2 56357 2021-03-02 Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries ed8a9c37bd7b7235b762d941ef18ee55 0000-0002-5657-6995 Ann John Ann John true false f141785b1c0ab9efe45665d35c081b84 0000-0003-1502-389X Marcos del Pozo Banos Marcos del Pozo Banos true false 2021-03-02 HDAT BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic is having profound mental health consequences for many people. Concerns have been expressed that at its most extreme, this may manifest itself in increased suicide rates.MethodsWe sourced real-time suicide data from around the world via a systematic internet search and recourse to our networks and the published literature. We used interrupted time series analysis to model the trend in monthly suicides prior to COVID-19 in each country/area-within-country, comparing the expected number of suicides derived from the model with the observed number of suicides in the early months of the pandemic. Countries/areas-within countries contributed data from at least 1 January 2019 to 31 July 2020 and potentially from as far back as 1 January 2016 until as recently as 31 October 2020. We conducted a primary analysis in which we treated 1 April to 31 July 2020 as the COVID-19 period, and two sensitivity analyses in which we varied its start and end dates (for those countries/areas-within-countries with data beyond July 2020).OutcomesWe sourced data from 21 countries (high income [n=16], upper-middle income [n=5]; whole country [n=10], area(s)-within-the-country [n=11]). In general, there does not appear to have been a significant increase in suicides since the pandemic began in the countries for which we had data. In fact, in a number of countries/areas-within-countries there appears to have been a decrease.InterpretationThis is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in multiple countries. It offers a consistent picture, albeit from high- and upper-middle income countries, of suicide numbers largely remaining unchanged or declining in the early months of the pandemic. We need to remain vigilant and be poised to respond if the situation changes as the longer-term mental health and economic impacts of the pandemic unfold. Journal Article The Lancet Psychiatry 8 7 579 588 Elsevier BV 2215-0366 1 7 2021 2021-07-01 10.1016/s2215-0366(21)00091-2 COLLEGE NANME Health Data Science COLLEGE CODE HDAT Swansea University 2021-08-13T13:47:01.1601261 2021-03-02T13:01:53.4158076 Swansea University Medical School Swansea University Medical School Jane Pirkis 1 Ann John 0000-0002-5657-6995 2 Sangsoo Shin 3 Marcos del Pozo Banos 0000-0003-1502-389X 4 Vikas Arya 5 Pablo Analuisa-Aguilar 6 Louis Appleby 7 Ella Arensman 8 Jason Bantjes 9 Anna Baran 10 Jose M Bertolote 11 Guilherme Borges 12 Petrana Brečić 13 Eric Caine 14 Giulio Castelpietra 15 Shu-Sen Chang 16 David Colchester 17 David Crompton 18 Marko Curkovic 19 Eberhard A Deisenhammer 20 Chengan Du 21 Jeremy Dwyer 22 Annette Erlangsen 23 Jeremy S Faust 24 Sarah Fortune 25 Andrew Garrett 26 Devin George 27 Rebekka Gerstner 28 Renske Gilissen 29 Madelyn Gould 30 Keith Hawton 31 Joseph Kanter 32 Navneet Kapur 33 Murad Khan 34 Olivia J Kirtley 35 Duleeka Knipe 36 Kairi Kolves 37 Stuart Leske 38 Kedar Marahatta 39 Ellenor Mittendorfer-Rutz 40 Nikolay Neznanov 41 Thomas Niederkrotenthaler 42 Emma Nielsen 43 Merete Nordentoft 44 Herwig Oberlerchner 45 Rory C O’Connor 46 Melissa Pearson 47 Michael R Phillips 48 Steve Platt 49 Paul L Plener 50 Georg Psota 51 Ping Qin 52 Daniel Radeloff 53 Christa Rados 54 Andreas Reif 55 Christine Reif-Leonhard 56 Vsevolod Rozanov 57 Christiane Schlang 58 Barbara Schneider 59 Natalia Semenova 60 Mark Sinyor 61 Ellen Townsend 62 Michiko Ueda 63 Lakshmi Vijayakumar 64 Roger T Webb 65 Manjula Weerasinghe 66 Gil Zalsman 67 David Gunnell 68 Matthew J Spittal 69 56357__19547__e933816c20b14558963bcb1f1a632c4f.pdf 56357.pdf 2021-03-24T15:48:36.5983689 Output 922764 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2021-10-13T00:00:00.0000000 ©2021 All rights reserved. All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License (CC-BY-NC-ND) true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ 56357__19548__87f2e6f83aa74048bf7399dd8e1b7c13.pdf 56357_Supplemental_Material.pdf 2021-03-24T15:49:51.2488775 Output 448805 application/pdf Supplemental material true 2021-10-13T00:00:00.0000000 ©2021 All rights reserved. All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License (CC-BY-NC-ND) true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
title Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries
spellingShingle Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries
Ann, John
Marcos, del Pozo Banos
title_short Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries
title_full Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries
title_fullStr Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries
title_full_unstemmed Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries
title_sort Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries
author_id_str_mv ed8a9c37bd7b7235b762d941ef18ee55
f141785b1c0ab9efe45665d35c081b84
author_id_fullname_str_mv ed8a9c37bd7b7235b762d941ef18ee55_***_Ann, John_***_0000-0002-5657-6995
f141785b1c0ab9efe45665d35c081b84_***_Marcos, del Pozo Banos_***_0000-0003-1502-389X
author Ann, John
Marcos, del Pozo Banos
author2 Jane Pirkis
Ann John
Sangsoo Shin
Marcos del Pozo Banos
Vikas Arya
Pablo Analuisa-Aguilar
Louis Appleby
Ella Arensman
Jason Bantjes
Anna Baran
Jose M Bertolote
Guilherme Borges
Petrana Brečić
Eric Caine
Giulio Castelpietra
Shu-Sen Chang
David Colchester
David Crompton
Marko Curkovic
Eberhard A Deisenhammer
Chengan Du
Jeremy Dwyer
Annette Erlangsen
Jeremy S Faust
Sarah Fortune
Andrew Garrett
Devin George
Rebekka Gerstner
Renske Gilissen
Madelyn Gould
Keith Hawton
Joseph Kanter
Navneet Kapur
Murad Khan
Olivia J Kirtley
Duleeka Knipe
Kairi Kolves
Stuart Leske
Kedar Marahatta
Ellenor Mittendorfer-Rutz
Nikolay Neznanov
Thomas Niederkrotenthaler
Emma Nielsen
Merete Nordentoft
Herwig Oberlerchner
Rory C O’Connor
Melissa Pearson
Michael R Phillips
Steve Platt
Paul L Plener
Georg Psota
Ping Qin
Daniel Radeloff
Christa Rados
Andreas Reif
Christine Reif-Leonhard
Vsevolod Rozanov
Christiane Schlang
Barbara Schneider
Natalia Semenova
Mark Sinyor
Ellen Townsend
Michiko Ueda
Lakshmi Vijayakumar
Roger T Webb
Manjula Weerasinghe
Gil Zalsman
David Gunnell
Matthew J Spittal
format Journal article
container_title The Lancet Psychiatry
container_volume 8
container_issue 7
container_start_page 579
publishDate 2021
institution Swansea University
issn 2215-0366
doi_str_mv 10.1016/s2215-0366(21)00091-2
publisher Elsevier BV
college_str Swansea University Medical School
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id swanseauniversitymedicalschool
hierarchy_top_title Swansea University Medical School
hierarchy_parent_id swanseauniversitymedicalschool
hierarchy_parent_title Swansea University Medical School
department_str Swansea University Medical School{{{_:::_}}}Swansea University Medical School{{{_:::_}}}Swansea University Medical School
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic is having profound mental health consequences for many people. Concerns have been expressed that at its most extreme, this may manifest itself in increased suicide rates.MethodsWe sourced real-time suicide data from around the world via a systematic internet search and recourse to our networks and the published literature. We used interrupted time series analysis to model the trend in monthly suicides prior to COVID-19 in each country/area-within-country, comparing the expected number of suicides derived from the model with the observed number of suicides in the early months of the pandemic. Countries/areas-within countries contributed data from at least 1 January 2019 to 31 July 2020 and potentially from as far back as 1 January 2016 until as recently as 31 October 2020. We conducted a primary analysis in which we treated 1 April to 31 July 2020 as the COVID-19 period, and two sensitivity analyses in which we varied its start and end dates (for those countries/areas-within-countries with data beyond July 2020).OutcomesWe sourced data from 21 countries (high income [n=16], upper-middle income [n=5]; whole country [n=10], area(s)-within-the-country [n=11]). In general, there does not appear to have been a significant increase in suicides since the pandemic began in the countries for which we had data. In fact, in a number of countries/areas-within-countries there appears to have been a decrease.InterpretationThis is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in multiple countries. It offers a consistent picture, albeit from high- and upper-middle income countries, of suicide numbers largely remaining unchanged or declining in the early months of the pandemic. We need to remain vigilant and be poised to respond if the situation changes as the longer-term mental health and economic impacts of the pandemic unfold.
published_date 2021-07-01T04:24:56Z
_version_ 1723080372147716096
score 10.854061