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What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections

Matthew Wall Orcid Logo, Maria Laura Sudulich, Kevin Cunningham

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, Volume: 22, Issue: 1, Pages: 3 - 26

Swansea University Author: Matthew Wall Orcid Logo

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Abstract

This article investigates methodologies for translating data from constituency betting markets in each of the UK's 650 constituencies into national-level predictions of parties' seat shares for the 2010 House of Commons election. It argues that information from betting markets is highly di...

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Published in: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties
ISSN: 1745-7289 1745-7297
Published: 2012
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa13631
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spelling 2016-10-13T13:07:10.8991723 v2 13631 2012-12-12 What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections 22914658d586a5759d4d4b945ea140bd 0000-0001-8265-4910 Matthew Wall Matthew Wall true false 2012-12-12 APC This article investigates methodologies for translating data from constituency betting markets in each of the UK's 650 constituencies into national-level predictions of parties' seat shares for the 2010 House of Commons election. It argues that information from betting markets is highly disaggregated (offering candidate-level predictions), adjustable throughout the campaign, and free to access – meaning that such data should be a useful resource for electoral forecasters. However, constituency-market gambling data from the site Betfair.com proved to be a relatively poor basis for predicting party seat shares, and there is also evidence suggesting that the data were systematically biased in several ways. Nonetheless, we argue that future research in this area should compensate for these biases to harness the potential of constituency prediction markets for electoral forecasting. Journal Article Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties 22 1 3 26 1745-7289 1745-7297 Betting Markets; Election Forecasting; UK 2010 Election 31 12 2012 2012-12-31 10.1080/17457289.2011.629727 COLLEGE NANME Politics, Philosophy and International Relations COLLEGE CODE APC Swansea University 2016-10-13T13:07:10.8991723 2012-12-12T10:42:17.4969327 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Culture and Communication - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations Matthew Wall 0000-0001-8265-4910 1 Maria Laura Sudulich 2 Kevin Cunningham 3
title What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections
spellingShingle What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections
Matthew Wall
title_short What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections
title_full What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections
title_fullStr What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections
title_full_unstemmed What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections
title_sort What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections
author_id_str_mv 22914658d586a5759d4d4b945ea140bd
author_id_fullname_str_mv 22914658d586a5759d4d4b945ea140bd_***_Matthew Wall
author Matthew Wall
author2 Matthew Wall
Maria Laura Sudulich
Kevin Cunningham
format Journal article
container_title Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties
container_volume 22
container_issue 1
container_start_page 3
publishDate 2012
institution Swansea University
issn 1745-7289
1745-7297
doi_str_mv 10.1080/17457289.2011.629727
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Culture and Communication - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Culture and Communication - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations
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description This article investigates methodologies for translating data from constituency betting markets in each of the UK's 650 constituencies into national-level predictions of parties' seat shares for the 2010 House of Commons election. It argues that information from betting markets is highly disaggregated (offering candidate-level predictions), adjustable throughout the campaign, and free to access – meaning that such data should be a useful resource for electoral forecasters. However, constituency-market gambling data from the site Betfair.com proved to be a relatively poor basis for predicting party seat shares, and there is also evidence suggesting that the data were systematically biased in several ways. Nonetheless, we argue that future research in this area should compensate for these biases to harness the potential of constituency prediction markets for electoral forecasting.
published_date 2012-12-31T03:17:26Z
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