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Confounding Environmental Colour and Distribution Shape Leads to Underestimation of Population Extinction Risk

Mike Fowler Orcid Logo, Lasse Ruokolainen

PLoS ONE, Volume: 8, Issue: 2, Start page: e55855

Swansea University Author: Mike Fowler Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1371/journal.pone.0055855

Abstract

Coloured stochastic processes show slow (red), fast (blue) or purely random (white) variation, important across biology, engineering and physics. Changing colour from white to red or blue in traditional models generates coloured stochastic series that are not normally distributed; confounding compar...

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Published in: PLoS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
Published: 2013
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa14224
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first_indexed 2013-07-23T12:12:02Z
last_indexed 2018-02-09T04:45:30Z
id cronfa14224
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spelling 2017-03-28T17:47:39.7197855 v2 14224 2013-02-14 Confounding Environmental Colour and Distribution Shape Leads to Underestimation of Population Extinction Risk a3a29027498d4b43a3f082a0a5ba16b4 0000-0003-1544-0407 Mike Fowler Mike Fowler true false 2013-02-14 SBI Coloured stochastic processes show slow (red), fast (blue) or purely random (white) variation, important across biology, engineering and physics. Changing colour from white to red or blue in traditional models generates coloured stochastic series that are not normally distributed; confounding comparison with normally distributed white series. We illustrate this with a stochastic population model previously used to estimate extinction risk in coloured environments, demonstrating that previous extinction estimates were based on methodological artefacts rather than the actual effect of coloured environmental variation. We propose a method for generating normally distributed coloured series, which must be used to avoid spurious inference. Journal Article PLoS ONE 8 2 e55855 1932-6203 Coloured environmental variation, AR(1), 1/f, sinusoidal, spectral analysis, confounding factor, spurious results 31 12 2013 2013-12-31 10.1371/journal.pone.0055855 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0055855 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences COLLEGE CODE SBI Swansea University 2017-03-28T17:47:39.7197855 2013-02-14T10:58:31.8005875 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Mike Fowler 0000-0003-1544-0407 1 Lasse Ruokolainen 2
title Confounding Environmental Colour and Distribution Shape Leads to Underestimation of Population Extinction Risk
spellingShingle Confounding Environmental Colour and Distribution Shape Leads to Underestimation of Population Extinction Risk
Mike Fowler
title_short Confounding Environmental Colour and Distribution Shape Leads to Underestimation of Population Extinction Risk
title_full Confounding Environmental Colour and Distribution Shape Leads to Underestimation of Population Extinction Risk
title_fullStr Confounding Environmental Colour and Distribution Shape Leads to Underestimation of Population Extinction Risk
title_full_unstemmed Confounding Environmental Colour and Distribution Shape Leads to Underestimation of Population Extinction Risk
title_sort Confounding Environmental Colour and Distribution Shape Leads to Underestimation of Population Extinction Risk
author_id_str_mv a3a29027498d4b43a3f082a0a5ba16b4
author_id_fullname_str_mv a3a29027498d4b43a3f082a0a5ba16b4_***_Mike Fowler
author Mike Fowler
author2 Mike Fowler
Lasse Ruokolainen
format Journal article
container_title PLoS ONE
container_volume 8
container_issue 2
container_start_page e55855
publishDate 2013
institution Swansea University
issn 1932-6203
doi_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pone.0055855
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0055855
document_store_str 0
active_str 0
description Coloured stochastic processes show slow (red), fast (blue) or purely random (white) variation, important across biology, engineering and physics. Changing colour from white to red or blue in traditional models generates coloured stochastic series that are not normally distributed; confounding comparison with normally distributed white series. We illustrate this with a stochastic population model previously used to estimate extinction risk in coloured environments, demonstrating that previous extinction estimates were based on methodological artefacts rather than the actual effect of coloured environmental variation. We propose a method for generating normally distributed coloured series, which must be used to avoid spurious inference.
published_date 2013-12-31T03:16:19Z
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score 10.997843

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