No Cover Image

Journal article 1835 views

A quantile double AR model: estimation and forecasting

Yuzhi Cai Orcid Logo, Gabriel Montes-Rojas, Jose Olmo

Journal of Forecasting, Volume: 32

Swansea University Author: Yuzhi Cai Orcid Logo

Abstract

We develop a novel quantile double autoregressive model for modelling financial time series. This is done byspecifying a generalized lambda distribution to the quantile function of the location-scale double autoregressive modeldeveloped by Ling (2004, 2007). Parameter estimation uses Markov chain Mo...

Full description

Published in: Journal of Forecasting
Published: 2013
URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa15289
first_indexed 2013-08-22T01:57:36Z
last_indexed 2018-02-09T04:47:07Z
id cronfa15289
recordtype SURis
fullrecord <?xml version="1.0"?><rfc1807><datestamp>2016-10-31T11:01:35.9341600</datestamp><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>15289</id><entry>2013-07-30</entry><title>A quantile double AR model: estimation and forecasting</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>eff7b8626ab4cc6428eef52516fda7d6</sid><ORCID>0000-0003-3509-9787</ORCID><firstname>Yuzhi</firstname><surname>Cai</surname><name>Yuzhi Cai</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2013-07-30</date><deptcode>CBAE</deptcode><abstract>We develop a novel quantile double autoregressive model for modelling financial time series. This is done byspecifying a generalized lambda distribution to the quantile function of the location-scale double autoregressive modeldeveloped by Ling (2004, 2007). Parameter estimation uses Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian methods. A simulationtechnique is introduced for forecasting the conditional distribution of financial returns m periods ahead, and henceany for predictive quantities of interest. The application to forecasting value-at-risk at different time horizons andcoverage probabilities for Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that our method works very well in practice. Copyright&#xA9; 2013 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Journal of Forecasting</journal><volume>32</volume><paginationEnd>560</paginationEnd><publisher/><keywords>Bayesian methods; density forecasts; generalized lambda distribution; quantile function;</keywords><publishedDay>31</publishedDay><publishedMonth>7</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2013</publishedYear><publishedDate>2013-07-31</publishedDate><doi/><url/><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Management School</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>CBAE</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><lastEdited>2016-10-31T11:01:35.9341600</lastEdited><Created>2013-07-30T10:12:24.4884007</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences</level><level id="2">School of Management - Accounting and Finance</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Yuzhi</firstname><surname>Cai</surname><orcid>0000-0003-3509-9787</orcid><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Gabriel</firstname><surname>Montes-Rojas</surname><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>Jose</firstname><surname>Olmo</surname><order>3</order></author></authors><documents/><OutputDurs/></rfc1807>
spelling 2016-10-31T11:01:35.9341600 v2 15289 2013-07-30 A quantile double AR model: estimation and forecasting eff7b8626ab4cc6428eef52516fda7d6 0000-0003-3509-9787 Yuzhi Cai Yuzhi Cai true false 2013-07-30 CBAE We develop a novel quantile double autoregressive model for modelling financial time series. This is done byspecifying a generalized lambda distribution to the quantile function of the location-scale double autoregressive modeldeveloped by Ling (2004, 2007). Parameter estimation uses Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian methods. A simulationtechnique is introduced for forecasting the conditional distribution of financial returns m periods ahead, and henceany for predictive quantities of interest. The application to forecasting value-at-risk at different time horizons andcoverage probabilities for Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that our method works very well in practice. Copyright© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Journal Article Journal of Forecasting 32 560 Bayesian methods; density forecasts; generalized lambda distribution; quantile function; 31 7 2013 2013-07-31 COLLEGE NANME Management School COLLEGE CODE CBAE Swansea University 2016-10-31T11:01:35.9341600 2013-07-30T10:12:24.4884007 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Management - Accounting and Finance Yuzhi Cai 0000-0003-3509-9787 1 Gabriel Montes-Rojas 2 Jose Olmo 3
title A quantile double AR model: estimation and forecasting
spellingShingle A quantile double AR model: estimation and forecasting
Yuzhi Cai
title_short A quantile double AR model: estimation and forecasting
title_full A quantile double AR model: estimation and forecasting
title_fullStr A quantile double AR model: estimation and forecasting
title_full_unstemmed A quantile double AR model: estimation and forecasting
title_sort A quantile double AR model: estimation and forecasting
author_id_str_mv eff7b8626ab4cc6428eef52516fda7d6
author_id_fullname_str_mv eff7b8626ab4cc6428eef52516fda7d6_***_Yuzhi Cai
author Yuzhi Cai
author2 Yuzhi Cai
Gabriel Montes-Rojas
Jose Olmo
format Journal article
container_title Journal of Forecasting
container_volume 32
publishDate 2013
institution Swansea University
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Management - Accounting and Finance{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Management - Accounting and Finance
document_store_str 0
active_str 0
description We develop a novel quantile double autoregressive model for modelling financial time series. This is done byspecifying a generalized lambda distribution to the quantile function of the location-scale double autoregressive modeldeveloped by Ling (2004, 2007). Parameter estimation uses Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian methods. A simulationtechnique is introduced for forecasting the conditional distribution of financial returns m periods ahead, and henceany for predictive quantities of interest. The application to forecasting value-at-risk at different time horizons andcoverage probabilities for Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that our method works very well in practice. Copyright© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
published_date 2013-07-31T10:47:54Z
_version_ 1850664995324428288
score 11.088971

Similar Items