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Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models

Qing-Ping Zou, Yongping Chen, Ian Cluckie, Richard Hewston, Shunqi Pan, Zhong Peng, Dominic Reeve

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume: 139, Issue: 671, Pages: 298 - 313

Swansea University Author: Ian Cluckie

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DOI (Published version): 10.1002/qj.2078

Abstract

This paper presents an integrated ‘Clouds-to-Coast’ ensemble modelling framework of coastal flood risk due to wave overtopping. The modelling framework consists of four key components: meteorological forecasts, wave–tide–surge predictions, nearshore wave models and surf zone models. This type of ens...

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Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
ISSN: 0035-9009
Published: 2013
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa15567
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Abstract: This paper presents an integrated ‘Clouds-to-Coast’ ensemble modelling framework of coastal flood risk due to wave overtopping. The modelling framework consists of four key components: meteorological forecasts, wave–tide–surge predictions, nearshore wave models and surf zone models. This type of ensemble prediction approach allows us to estimate the probabilities of various outcomes and so improve our understanding of the reliability of results. It also provides a measure of the uncertainty associated with predictions, which can be particularly large for extreme storms, and allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological forecasts to overtopping and subsequent coastal flood risk predictions. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society
Keywords: Coastal Flood Risk, Ensembles, Model Cascades
College: Faculty of Science and Engineering
Issue: 671
Start Page: 298
End Page: 313