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Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds

Luca Borger Orcid Logo, Thomas D Nudds

Ecological Applications, Volume: 24, Issue: 1, Pages: 121 - 141

Swansea University Author: Luca Borger Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1890/12-1683.1

Abstract

Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time-series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Ba...

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Published in: Ecological Applications
ISSN: 1051-0761
Published: Wiley 2014
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa16634
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spelling 2020-11-12T10:37:40.5977385 v2 16634 2013-12-14 Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds 8416d0ffc3cccdad6e6d67a455e7c4a2 0000-0001-8763-5997 Luca Borger Luca Borger true false 2013-12-14 SBI Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time-series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000 - 2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: ring-necked duck (Aythya collaris) decreased and red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997 - 1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over time scales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all 84 waterbird species breeding on the Ontario shield, however, suggested that up to 30 species may instead have altered (short-term) distribution dynamics due to forestry practices. Hence, natural disturbances are critical components of the ecology of the boreal forest and forest practices which aim to approximate them may succeed in allowing the maintenance of the associated species, but improved monitoring and modeling of large-scale boreal forest bird distribution dynamics is necessary to resolve existing uncertainties, especially on less-common species. Journal Article Ecological Applications 24 1 121 141 Wiley 1051-0761 boreal forest; Canada; disturbance; forest management; habitat suitability; habitat 1 1 2014 2014-01-01 10.1890/12-1683.1 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences COLLEGE CODE SBI Swansea University 2020-11-12T10:37:40.5977385 2013-12-14T02:13:03.3759058 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Luca Borger 0000-0001-8763-5997 1 Thomas D Nudds 2 0016634-08072015101608.pdf EmulatingNaturalDisturbance_final.pdf 2015-07-08T10:16:08.4430000 Output 1013682 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2015-07-08T00:00:00.0000000 true eng
title Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds
spellingShingle Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds
Luca Borger
title_short Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds
title_full Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds
title_fullStr Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds
title_full_unstemmed Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds
title_sort Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds
author_id_str_mv 8416d0ffc3cccdad6e6d67a455e7c4a2
author_id_fullname_str_mv 8416d0ffc3cccdad6e6d67a455e7c4a2_***_Luca Borger
author Luca Borger
author2 Luca Borger
Thomas D Nudds
format Journal article
container_title Ecological Applications
container_volume 24
container_issue 1
container_start_page 121
publishDate 2014
institution Swansea University
issn 1051-0761
doi_str_mv 10.1890/12-1683.1
publisher Wiley
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
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description Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time-series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000 - 2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: ring-necked duck (Aythya collaris) decreased and red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997 - 1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over time scales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all 84 waterbird species breeding on the Ontario shield, however, suggested that up to 30 species may instead have altered (short-term) distribution dynamics due to forestry practices. Hence, natural disturbances are critical components of the ecology of the boreal forest and forest practices which aim to approximate them may succeed in allowing the maintenance of the associated species, but improved monitoring and modeling of large-scale boreal forest bird distribution dynamics is necessary to resolve existing uncertainties, especially on less-common species.
published_date 2014-01-01T03:19:01Z
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