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Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation / Bill Russell; Rosen Azad Chowdhury

Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume: 35, Pages: 24 - 38

Swansea University Author: Chowdhury, Rosen

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Abstract

Most Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated process.However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies andso cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agentsbelieve inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories...

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Published in: Journal of Macroeconomics
ISSN: 01640704
Published: 2013
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa21606
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spelling 2016-12-08T14:14:44Z v2 21606 2015-05-21 Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation Rosen Chowdhury Rosen Chowdhury true 0000-0003-1796-9603 false 6f0a211cd0023a2a351371189c33ae4b b30857fd4b4f0b1727da7dd01691f91a wlMTwmr021o7xQb0vdR9VR8j7kl4zZwebz0wEHEQAUk= 2015-05-21 BEC Most Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated process.However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies andso cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agentsbelieve inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematicerrors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillipscurve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstratedthat United States inflation data are consistent with the alternative theory butnot with the existing ‘modern’ theories. Journal article Journal of Macroeconomics 35 24 38 01640704 Phillips curve,Inflation, Structural breaks, GARCH, Non-Stationary data 0 0 2013 2013-01-01 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.11.004 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070412001115 School of Management Economics CBAE BEC None None 2016-12-08T14:14:44Z 2015-05-21T02:01:46Z School of Management Economics Bill Russell 1 Rosen Azad Chowdhury 2
title Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
spellingShingle Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
Chowdhury, Rosen
title_short Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
title_full Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
title_fullStr Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
title_full_unstemmed Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
title_sort Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
author_id_str_mv 6f0a211cd0023a2a351371189c33ae4b
author_id_fullname_str_mv 6f0a211cd0023a2a351371189c33ae4b_***_Chowdhury, Rosen
author Chowdhury, Rosen
author2 Bill Russell
Rosen Azad Chowdhury
format Journal article
container_title Journal of Macroeconomics
container_volume 35
container_start_page 24
publishDate 2013
institution Swansea University
issn 01640704
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.11.004
college_str School of Management
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id schoolofmanagement
hierarchy_top_title School of Management
hierarchy_parent_id schoolofmanagement
hierarchy_parent_title School of Management
department_str Economics{{{_:::_}}}School of Management{{{_:::_}}}Economics
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070412001115
document_store_str 0
active_str 1
description Most Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated process.However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies andso cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agentsbelieve inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematicerrors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillipscurve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstratedthat United States inflation data are consistent with the alternative theory butnot with the existing ‘modern’ theories.
published_date 2013-01-01T20:29:17Z
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