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Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems
Andres Payo,
Jim W. Hall,
Jon French,
James Sutherland,
Barend van Maanen,
Robert J. Nicholls,
Dominic Reeve
Geomorphology, Volume: 256, Pages: 36 - 48
Swansea University Author:
Dominic Reeve
DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.07.048
Abstract
As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an e...
Published in: | Geomorphology |
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ISSN: | 0169-555X |
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2016
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URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa24058 |
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<?xml version="1.0"?><rfc1807><datestamp>2020-10-30T09:15:40.0279262</datestamp><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>24058</id><entry>2015-10-30</entry><title>Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>3e76fcc2bb3cde4ddee2c8edfd2f0082</sid><ORCID>0000-0003-1293-4743</ORCID><firstname>Dominic</firstname><surname>Reeve</surname><name>Dominic Reeve</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2015-10-30</date><deptcode>CIVL</deptcode><abstract>As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion–accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a model, the modeller can readily assess if critical feedback loops are included.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Geomorphology</journal><volume>256</volume><journalNumber/><paginationStart>36</paginationStart><paginationEnd>48</paginationEnd><publisher/><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint>0169-555X</issnPrint><issnElectronic/><keywords>Systems analysis; Behavioural model; Emergent behaviour; Feedback analysis; Causal loop diagram; Directed graph; High Angle Wave Instability</keywords><publishedDay>1</publishedDay><publishedMonth>3</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2016</publishedYear><publishedDate>2016-03-01</publishedDate><doi>10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.07.048</doi><url/><notes>This paper develops ideas contained in a flagship NERC project called iCOASST to develop methods for forecasting medium scale changes in coastal morphology. The results of this project have since been taken up by consultants (HRWallingford) to implement on behalf of the Environment Agency to assist them in developing shoreline management strategies.</notes><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Civil Engineering</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>CIVL</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><lastEdited>2020-10-30T09:15:40.0279262</lastEdited><Created>2015-10-30T10:55:41.8203610</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Science and Engineering</level><level id="2">School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Andres</firstname><surname>Payo</surname><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Jim W.</firstname><surname>Hall</surname><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>Jon</firstname><surname>French</surname><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>James</firstname><surname>Sutherland</surname><order>4</order></author><author><firstname>Barend van</firstname><surname>Maanen</surname><order>5</order></author><author><firstname>Robert J.</firstname><surname>Nicholls</surname><order>6</order></author><author><firstname>Dominic</firstname><surname>Reeve</surname><orcid>0000-0003-1293-4743</orcid><order>7</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>0024058-29042016144441.pdf</filename><originalFilename>1-s2v6.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2016-04-29T14:44:41.3170000</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>2119157</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Version of Record</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><documentNotes>This is an open access article under the CC BY license.</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>English</language><licence>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</licence></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807> |
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2020-10-30T09:15:40.0279262 v2 24058 2015-10-30 Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems 3e76fcc2bb3cde4ddee2c8edfd2f0082 0000-0003-1293-4743 Dominic Reeve Dominic Reeve true false 2015-10-30 CIVL As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion–accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a model, the modeller can readily assess if critical feedback loops are included. Journal Article Geomorphology 256 36 48 0169-555X Systems analysis; Behavioural model; Emergent behaviour; Feedback analysis; Causal loop diagram; Directed graph; High Angle Wave Instability 1 3 2016 2016-03-01 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.07.048 This paper develops ideas contained in a flagship NERC project called iCOASST to develop methods for forecasting medium scale changes in coastal morphology. The results of this project have since been taken up by consultants (HRWallingford) to implement on behalf of the Environment Agency to assist them in developing shoreline management strategies. COLLEGE NANME Civil Engineering COLLEGE CODE CIVL Swansea University 2020-10-30T09:15:40.0279262 2015-10-30T10:55:41.8203610 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering Andres Payo 1 Jim W. Hall 2 Jon French 3 James Sutherland 4 Barend van Maanen 5 Robert J. Nicholls 6 Dominic Reeve 0000-0003-1293-4743 7 0024058-29042016144441.pdf 1-s2v6.pdf 2016-04-29T14:44:41.3170000 Output 2119157 application/pdf Version of Record true This is an open access article under the CC BY license. true English http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
title |
Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems |
spellingShingle |
Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems Dominic Reeve |
title_short |
Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems |
title_full |
Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems |
title_fullStr |
Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems |
title_sort |
Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems |
author_id_str_mv |
3e76fcc2bb3cde4ddee2c8edfd2f0082 |
author_id_fullname_str_mv |
3e76fcc2bb3cde4ddee2c8edfd2f0082_***_Dominic Reeve |
author |
Dominic Reeve |
author2 |
Andres Payo Jim W. Hall Jon French James Sutherland Barend van Maanen Robert J. Nicholls Dominic Reeve |
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Journal article |
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Geomorphology |
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256 |
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Swansea University |
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0169-555X |
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10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.07.048 |
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Faculty of Science and Engineering |
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As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion–accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a model, the modeller can readily assess if critical feedback loops are included. |
published_date |
2016-03-01T03:28:29Z |
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1763751083688067072 |
score |
11.021648 |