Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems

Payo, Andres; Hall, Jim W.; French, Jon; Sutherland, James; Maanen, Barend van; Nicholls, Robert J.; Reeve, Dominic

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.07.048

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Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems

Andres Payo, Jim W. Hall, Jon French, James Sutherland, Barend van Maanen, Robert J. Nicholls, Dominic Reeve

Geomorphology, Volume: 256, Pages: 36 - 48

Swansea University Author: Dominic Reeve

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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.07.048

Abstract

As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an e...

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Published in:	Geomorphology
ISSN:	0169-555X
Published:	2016
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URI:	https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa24058
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Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion–accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a model, the modeller can readily assess if critical feedback loops are included.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Geomorphology</journal><volume>256</volume><journalNumber/><paginationStart>36</paginationStart><paginationEnd>48</paginationEnd><publisher/><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint>0169-555X</issnPrint><issnElectronic/><keywords>Systems analysis; Behavioural model; Emergent behaviour; Feedback analysis; Causal loop diagram; Directed graph; High Angle Wave Instability</keywords><publishedDay>1</publishedDay><publishedMonth>3</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2016</publishedYear><publishedDate>2016-03-01</publishedDate><doi>10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.07.048</doi><url/><notes>This paper develops ideas contained in a flagship NERC project called iCOASST to develop methods for forecasting medium scale changes in coastal morphology. The results of this project have since been taken up by consultants (HRWallingford) to implement on behalf of the Environment Agency to assist them in developing shoreline management strategies.</notes><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Civil Engineering</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>CIVL</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><lastEdited>2020-10-30T09:15:40.0279262</lastEdited><Created>2015-10-30T10:55:41.8203610</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Science and Engineering</level><level id="2">School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Andres</firstname><surname>Payo</surname><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Jim W.</firstname><surname>Hall</surname><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>Jon</firstname><surname>French</surname><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>James</firstname><surname>Sutherland</surname><order>4</order></author><author><firstname>Barend van</firstname><surname>Maanen</surname><order>5</order></author><author><firstname>Robert J.</firstname><surname>Nicholls</surname><order>6</order></author><author><firstname>Dominic</firstname><surname>Reeve</surname><orcid>0000-0003-1293-4743</orcid><order>7</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>0024058-29042016144441.pdf</filename><originalFilename>1-s2v6.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2016-04-29T14:44:41.3170000</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>2119157</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Version of Record</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><documentNotes>This is an open access article under the CC BY license.</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>English</language><licence>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</licence></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807>
spelling	2020-10-30T09:15:40.0279262 v2 24058 2015-10-30 Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems 3e76fcc2bb3cde4ddee2c8edfd2f0082 0000-0003-1293-4743 Dominic Reeve Dominic Reeve true false 2015-10-30 CIVL As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion–accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a model, the modeller can readily assess if critical feedback loops are included. Journal Article Geomorphology 256 36 48 0169-555X Systems analysis; Behavioural model; Emergent behaviour; Feedback analysis; Causal loop diagram; Directed graph; High Angle Wave Instability 1 3 2016 2016-03-01 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.07.048 This paper develops ideas contained in a flagship NERC project called iCOASST to develop methods for forecasting medium scale changes in coastal morphology. The results of this project have since been taken up by consultants (HRWallingford) to implement on behalf of the Environment Agency to assist them in developing shoreline management strategies. COLLEGE NANME Civil Engineering COLLEGE CODE CIVL Swansea University 2020-10-30T09:15:40.0279262 2015-10-30T10:55:41.8203610 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering Andres Payo 1 Jim W. Hall 2 Jon French 3 James Sutherland 4 Barend van Maanen 5 Robert J. Nicholls 6 Dominic Reeve 0000-0003-1293-4743 7 0024058-29042016144441.pdf 1-s2v6.pdf 2016-04-29T14:44:41.3170000 Output 2119157 application/pdf Version of Record true This is an open access article under the CC BY license. true English http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title	Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems
spellingShingle	Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems Dominic Reeve
title_short	Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems
title_full	Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems
title_fullStr	Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems
title_full_unstemmed	Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems
title_sort	Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems
author_id_str_mv	3e76fcc2bb3cde4ddee2c8edfd2f0082
author_id_fullname_str_mv	3e76fcc2bb3cde4ddee2c8edfd2f0082_***_Dominic Reeve
author	Dominic Reeve
author2	Andres Payo Jim W. Hall Jon French James Sutherland Barend van Maanen Robert J. Nicholls Dominic Reeve
format	Journal article
container_title	Geomorphology
container_volume	256
container_start_page	36
publishDate	2016
institution	Swansea University
issn	0169-555X
doi_str_mv	10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.07.048
college_str	Faculty of Science and Engineering
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description	As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion–accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a model, the modeller can readily assess if critical feedback loops are included.
published_date	2016-03-01T03:28:29Z
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Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems

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