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Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept

David L. Strayer, Carla M. D'Antonio, Franz Essl, Mike Fowler Orcid Logo, Juergen Geist, Sabine Hilt, Ivan Jarić, Klaus Jöhnk, Clive G. Jones, Xavier Lambin, Alexander W. Latzka, Jan Pergl, Petr Pyšek, Peter Robertson, Menja von Schmalensee, Robert A. Stefansson, Justin Wright, Jonathan M. Jeschke

Ecology Letters, Volume: 20, Issue: 10, Pages: 1337 - 1350

Swansea University Author: Mike Fowler Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1111/ele.12822

Abstract

Boom-bust dynamics – the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline – have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage trouble- some invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. H...

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Published in: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
Published: 2017
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa34947
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first_indexed 2017-08-21T18:50:38Z
last_indexed 2018-02-12T14:17:02Z
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spelling 2018-02-09T12:15:35.8498011 v2 34947 2017-08-21 Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept a3a29027498d4b43a3f082a0a5ba16b4 0000-0003-1544-0407 Mike Fowler Mike Fowler true false 2017-08-21 SBI Boom-bust dynamics – the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline – have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage trouble- some invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations. Journal Article Ecology Letters 20 10 1337 1350 1461023X alien species, biological invasions, concepts, exotic species, invasive species, long-term, manage- ment, non-native species, population collapse, population crash, population dynamics, reckless invaders, systematic review 17 9 2017 2017-09-17 10.1111/ele.12822 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences COLLEGE CODE SBI Swansea University 2018-02-09T12:15:35.8498011 2017-08-21T14:11:32.5286149 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences David L. Strayer 1 Carla M. D'Antonio 2 Franz Essl 3 Mike Fowler 0000-0003-1544-0407 4 Juergen Geist 5 Sabine Hilt 6 Ivan Jarić 7 Klaus Jöhnk 8 Clive G. Jones 9 Xavier Lambin 10 Alexander W. Latzka 11 Jan Pergl 12 Petr Pyšek 13 Peter Robertson 14 Menja von Schmalensee 15 Robert A. Stefansson 16 Justin Wright 17 Jonathan M. Jeschke 18
title Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept
spellingShingle Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept
Mike Fowler
title_short Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept
title_full Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept
title_fullStr Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept
title_full_unstemmed Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept
title_sort Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept
author_id_str_mv a3a29027498d4b43a3f082a0a5ba16b4
author_id_fullname_str_mv a3a29027498d4b43a3f082a0a5ba16b4_***_Mike Fowler
author Mike Fowler
author2 David L. Strayer
Carla M. D'Antonio
Franz Essl
Mike Fowler
Juergen Geist
Sabine Hilt
Ivan Jarić
Klaus Jöhnk
Clive G. Jones
Xavier Lambin
Alexander W. Latzka
Jan Pergl
Petr Pyšek
Peter Robertson
Menja von Schmalensee
Robert A. Stefansson
Justin Wright
Jonathan M. Jeschke
format Journal article
container_title Ecology Letters
container_volume 20
container_issue 10
container_start_page 1337
publishDate 2017
institution Swansea University
issn 1461023X
doi_str_mv 10.1111/ele.12822
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
document_store_str 0
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description Boom-bust dynamics – the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline – have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage trouble- some invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.
published_date 2017-09-17T03:43:23Z
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