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Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories / Fraser Januchowski-Hartley, Nicholas A. J. Graham, Shaun K. Wilson, Simon Jennings, Chris T. Perry

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Volume: 284, Issue: 1847, Start page: 20162533

Swansea University Author: Fraser Januchowski-Hartley

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DOI (Published version): 10.1098/rspb.2016.2533

Abstract

The largest threat to the long-term existent of coral reefs is climate change, and this topic has received much attention over the past 20 years as coral bleaching and mortality events have become more frequent and more intense. As a result of these events, changes in different aspects of coral reef...

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Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
ISSN: 0962-8452 1471-2954
Published: The Royal Society 2017
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa41156
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spelling 2020-11-12T20:17:20.3938226 v2 41156 2018-07-30 Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories 77e5e32d2047f69a621d6d810ff9299b 0000-0003-2468-8199 Fraser Januchowski-Hartley Fraser Januchowski-Hartley true false 2018-07-30 SBI The largest threat to the long-term existent of coral reefs is climate change, and this topic has received much attention over the past 20 years as coral bleaching and mortality events have become more frequent and more intense. As a result of these events, changes in different aspects of coral reef ecosystems have potentially changed the balance of carbonate accretion and erosion. These geomorphic consequences of coral bleaching have yet to received significant attention, with most studies being conducted on reef ecology, and here we begin to rectify this omission. Using data collected on inner Seychelles reefs from 1994 to 2014 we track the carbonate budget of these reefs across the 1998 coral bleaching event when 90% of coral cover was lost, and subsequent recovery. We found that while all reefs were estimated have positive budgets, and thus were accreting in 1994, in 2005 almost all reefs were in an erosional (negative budget) state. By 2014, 7 reefs had recovered to positive carbonate budgets. However, where macroalgae was previously found, and was now dominant, carbonate budgets remained negative. Boosted regression tree models indicated that reefs with higher massive coral, low macroalgae cover and low biomass of excavating parrotfishes in 1994 were more likely to recover by 2014. However, in 2016 a second bleaching-induced mass-mortality of corals occurred. If this mortality is similar to 1998, we predict that six of eight reefs that had positive budgets in 2014 would recover to positive budgets again by 2030. However, no currently negative budget reef would recover. Our results highlighted that coral reef framework maintenance potential should not be assumed from ecological state, and that management has a role to play in promoting resilient carbonate accretion on coral reefs. Journal Article Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 284 1847 20162533 The Royal Society 0962-8452 1471-2954 25 1 2017 2017-01-25 10.1098/rspb.2016.2533 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences COLLEGE CODE SBI Swansea University 2020-11-12T20:17:20.3938226 2018-07-30T09:49:01.2543781 College of Science Biosciences Fraser Januchowski-Hartley 0000-0003-2468-8199 1 Nicholas A. J. Graham 2 Shaun K. Wilson 3 Simon Jennings 4 Chris T. Perry 5 0041156-06092018121703.pdf 20162533.full.pdf 2018-09-06T12:17:03.5700000 Output 688067 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2017 The Authors. Released under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution License true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories
spellingShingle Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories
Fraser, Januchowski-Hartley
title_short Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories
title_full Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories
title_fullStr Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories
title_full_unstemmed Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories
title_sort Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories
author_id_str_mv 77e5e32d2047f69a621d6d810ff9299b
author_id_fullname_str_mv 77e5e32d2047f69a621d6d810ff9299b_***_Fraser, Januchowski-Hartley
author Fraser, Januchowski-Hartley
author2 Fraser Januchowski-Hartley
Nicholas A. J. Graham
Shaun K. Wilson
Simon Jennings
Chris T. Perry
format Journal article
container_title Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
container_volume 284
container_issue 1847
container_start_page 20162533
publishDate 2017
institution Swansea University
issn 0962-8452
1471-2954
doi_str_mv 10.1098/rspb.2016.2533
publisher The Royal Society
college_str College of Science
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hierarchy_top_title College of Science
hierarchy_parent_id collegeofscience
hierarchy_parent_title College of Science
department_str Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}College of Science{{{_:::_}}}Biosciences
document_store_str 1
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description The largest threat to the long-term existent of coral reefs is climate change, and this topic has received much attention over the past 20 years as coral bleaching and mortality events have become more frequent and more intense. As a result of these events, changes in different aspects of coral reef ecosystems have potentially changed the balance of carbonate accretion and erosion. These geomorphic consequences of coral bleaching have yet to received significant attention, with most studies being conducted on reef ecology, and here we begin to rectify this omission. Using data collected on inner Seychelles reefs from 1994 to 2014 we track the carbonate budget of these reefs across the 1998 coral bleaching event when 90% of coral cover was lost, and subsequent recovery. We found that while all reefs were estimated have positive budgets, and thus were accreting in 1994, in 2005 almost all reefs were in an erosional (negative budget) state. By 2014, 7 reefs had recovered to positive carbonate budgets. However, where macroalgae was previously found, and was now dominant, carbonate budgets remained negative. Boosted regression tree models indicated that reefs with higher massive coral, low macroalgae cover and low biomass of excavating parrotfishes in 1994 were more likely to recover by 2014. However, in 2016 a second bleaching-induced mass-mortality of corals occurred. If this mortality is similar to 1998, we predict that six of eight reefs that had positive budgets in 2014 would recover to positive budgets again by 2030. However, no currently negative budget reef would recover. Our results highlighted that coral reef framework maintenance potential should not be assumed from ecological state, and that management has a role to play in promoting resilient carbonate accretion on coral reefs.
published_date 2017-01-25T03:56:59Z
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