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Antecedents of war: the geopolitics of low oil prices and decelerating financial liquidity

Hany Mohamed, Mahmoud El-Gamal

Applied Economics Letters, Volume: 26, Issue: 9, Pages: 765 - 769

Swansea University Author: Hany Mohamed

Abstract

We investigate the joint dynamics of oil prices, financial liquidity and geopolitical risk, within a multi-country global vector autoregressive model. We find that low oil prices are expected to trigger higher levels of geopolitical risk and that decelerating financial liquidity serves as an acceler...

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Published in: Applied Economics Letters
ISSN: 1350-4851 1466-4291
Published: Informa UK Limited 2019
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa43860
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Abstract: We investigate the joint dynamics of oil prices, financial liquidity and geopolitical risk, within a multi-country global vector autoregressive model. We find that low oil prices are expected to trigger higher levels of geopolitical risk and that decelerating financial liquidity serves as an accelerator.
Keywords: Geopolitics, global liquidity, oil prices, global VAR
College: Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
Issue: 9
Start Page: 765
End Page: 769