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Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates

Jaime Espin, Michael Schlander, Brian Godman, Pippa Anderson, Jorge Mestre-Ferrandiz, Isabelle Borget, Adam Hutchings, Steven Flostrand, Adam Parnaby, Claudio Jommi

Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Pages: 1 - 15

Swansea University Author: Pippa Anderson

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DOI (Published version): 10.1007/s40258-018-0419-1

Abstract

Within (European) healthcare systems, the main goal for pharmaceutical expenditure is cost containment. This is due to a general belief among healthcare policy makers that pharmaceutical expenditure—driven by high prices—will be unsustainable unless further reforms are enacted.The aim of the researc...

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Published in: Applied Health Economics and Health Policy
ISSN: 1175-5652 1179-1896
Published: 2018
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa44211
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spelling 2019-05-29T15:52:43.9450255 v2 44211 2018-09-14 Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates 128cdedfba6e5e6374fdc85d5c78c428 Pippa Anderson Pippa Anderson true false 2018-09-14 FGMHL Within (European) healthcare systems, the main goal for pharmaceutical expenditure is cost containment. This is due to a general belief among healthcare policy makers that pharmaceutical expenditure—driven by high prices—will be unsustainable unless further reforms are enacted.The aim of the research published in this paper is to provide more realistic expectations of pharmaceutical expenditure for all key stakeholder groups by estimating pharmaceutical expenditure at ‘net’ prices. We also aim to estimate any gaps developing between list and net pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). We adjusted an established forecast of pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries, from 2017 to 2021, by reflecting discounts and rebates not previously considered, i.e. we moved from ‘list’ to ‘net’ prices, as far as data were available.We found an increasing divergence between expenditure measured at list and net prices. When the forecasts for the five countries were aggregated, the EU5 (unweighted) average historical growth (2010–2016) rate fell from 3.4% compound annual growth rate at list to 2.5% at net. For the forecast, the net growth rate was estimated at 1.5 versus 2.9% at list.Our results suggest that future growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe is likely to be (1) lower than previously understood from forecasts based on list prices and (2) below predicted healthcare expenditure growth in Europe and in line with long-term economic growth rates. For policy makers concerned about the sustainability of pharmaceutical expenditure, this study may provide some comfort, in that the perceived problem is not as large as expected. Journal Article Applied Health Economics and Health Policy 1 15 1175-5652 1179-1896 18 8 2018 2018-08-18 10.1007/s40258-018-0419-1 COLLEGE NANME Medicine, Health and Life Science - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGMHL Swansea University 2019-05-29T15:52:43.9450255 2018-09-14T21:20:47.1731769 Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences School of Health and Social Care Jaime Espin 1 Michael Schlander 2 Brian Godman 3 Pippa Anderson 4 Jorge Mestre-Ferrandiz 5 Isabelle Borget 6 Adam Hutchings 7 Steven Flostrand 8 Adam Parnaby 9 Claudio Jommi 10 0044211-14092018212159.pdf Espin2018_Article_ProjectingPharmaceuticalExpend.pdf 2018-09-14T21:21:59.0270000 Output 1378520 application/pdf Version of Record true 2018-09-14T00:00:00.0000000 This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. true eng
title Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates
spellingShingle Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates
Pippa Anderson
title_short Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates
title_full Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates
title_fullStr Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates
title_full_unstemmed Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates
title_sort Projecting Pharmaceutical Expenditure in EU5 to 2021: Adjusting for the Impact of Discounts and Rebates
author_id_str_mv 128cdedfba6e5e6374fdc85d5c78c428
author_id_fullname_str_mv 128cdedfba6e5e6374fdc85d5c78c428_***_Pippa Anderson
author Pippa Anderson
author2 Jaime Espin
Michael Schlander
Brian Godman
Pippa Anderson
Jorge Mestre-Ferrandiz
Isabelle Borget
Adam Hutchings
Steven Flostrand
Adam Parnaby
Claudio Jommi
format Journal article
container_title Applied Health Economics and Health Policy
container_start_page 1
publishDate 2018
institution Swansea University
issn 1175-5652
1179-1896
doi_str_mv 10.1007/s40258-018-0419-1
college_str Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
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hierarchy_top_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
department_str School of Health and Social Care{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Health and Social Care
document_store_str 1
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description Within (European) healthcare systems, the main goal for pharmaceutical expenditure is cost containment. This is due to a general belief among healthcare policy makers that pharmaceutical expenditure—driven by high prices—will be unsustainable unless further reforms are enacted.The aim of the research published in this paper is to provide more realistic expectations of pharmaceutical expenditure for all key stakeholder groups by estimating pharmaceutical expenditure at ‘net’ prices. We also aim to estimate any gaps developing between list and net pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). We adjusted an established forecast of pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries, from 2017 to 2021, by reflecting discounts and rebates not previously considered, i.e. we moved from ‘list’ to ‘net’ prices, as far as data were available.We found an increasing divergence between expenditure measured at list and net prices. When the forecasts for the five countries were aggregated, the EU5 (unweighted) average historical growth (2010–2016) rate fell from 3.4% compound annual growth rate at list to 2.5% at net. For the forecast, the net growth rate was estimated at 1.5 versus 2.9% at list.Our results suggest that future growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe is likely to be (1) lower than previously understood from forecasts based on list prices and (2) below predicted healthcare expenditure growth in Europe and in line with long-term economic growth rates. For policy makers concerned about the sustainability of pharmaceutical expenditure, this study may provide some comfort, in that the perceived problem is not as large as expected.
published_date 2018-08-18T03:55:24Z
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