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An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards

Geraldo Moura Ramos Filho, Victor Hugo Rabelo Coelho, Emerson da Silva Freitas, Yunqing Xuan Orcid Logo, Cristiano das Neves Almeida

Natural Hazards, Volume: 105, Issue: 3, Pages: 2409 - 2429

Swansea University Author: Yunqing Xuan Orcid Logo

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Abstract

This paper presents an improved method of using threshold of peak rainfall intensity for robust flood/flash flood evaluation and warnings in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The improvements involve the use of two tolerance levels and the delineating of an intermediate threshold by incorporating an e...

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Published in: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921-030X 1573-0840
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2021
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa55586
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first_indexed 2020-11-03T12:41:34Z
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spelling 2021-02-04T15:12:28.8281791 v2 55586 2020-11-03 An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards 3ece84458da360ff84fa95aa1c0c912b 0000-0003-2736-8625 Yunqing Xuan Yunqing Xuan true false 2020-11-03 CIVL This paper presents an improved method of using threshold of peak rainfall intensity for robust flood/flash flood evaluation and warnings in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The improvements involve the use of two tolerance levels and the delineating of an intermediate threshold by incorporating an exponential curve that relates rainfall intensity and Antecedent Precipitation Index (API). The application of the tolerance levels presents an average increase of 14% in the Probability of Detection (POD) of flood and flash flood occurrences above the upper threshold. Moreover, a considerable exclusion (63%) of non-occurrences of floods and flash floods in between the two thresholds significantly reduce the number of false alarms. The intermediate threshold using the exponential curves also exhibits improvements for almost all time steps of both hydrological hazards, with the best results found for floods correlating 8-h peak intensity and 8 days API, with POD and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) values equal to 81% and 82%, respectively. This study provides strong indications that the new proposed rainfall threshold-based approach can help reduce the uncertainties in predicting the occurrences of floods and flash floods. Journal Article Natural Hazards 105 3 2409 2429 Springer Science and Business Media LLC 0921-030X 1573-0840 Flood hazards warning; Rainfall threshold method; Peak rainfall intensity; Antecedent precipitation index; Tolerance limits; Intermediate rainfall intensity threshold 1 2 2021 2021-02-01 10.1007/s11069-020-04405-x COLLEGE NANME Civil Engineering COLLEGE CODE CIVL Swansea University 2021-02-04T15:12:28.8281791 2020-11-03T12:31:39.3178732 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering Geraldo Moura Ramos Filho 1 Victor Hugo Rabelo Coelho 2 Emerson da Silva Freitas 3 Yunqing Xuan 0000-0003-2736-8625 4 Cristiano das Neves Almeida 5 55586__18576__20888c158ac04c3da2132589355a3eb4.pdf RamosFilho2020_Article_AnImprovedRainfall-thresholdAp.pdf 2020-11-03T12:40:11.0403131 Output 3868788 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards
spellingShingle An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards
Yunqing Xuan
title_short An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards
title_full An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards
title_fullStr An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards
title_full_unstemmed An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards
title_sort An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards
author_id_str_mv 3ece84458da360ff84fa95aa1c0c912b
author_id_fullname_str_mv 3ece84458da360ff84fa95aa1c0c912b_***_Yunqing Xuan
author Yunqing Xuan
author2 Geraldo Moura Ramos Filho
Victor Hugo Rabelo Coelho
Emerson da Silva Freitas
Yunqing Xuan
Cristiano das Neves Almeida
format Journal article
container_title Natural Hazards
container_volume 105
container_issue 3
container_start_page 2409
publishDate 2021
institution Swansea University
issn 0921-030X
1573-0840
doi_str_mv 10.1007/s11069-020-04405-x
publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
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hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description This paper presents an improved method of using threshold of peak rainfall intensity for robust flood/flash flood evaluation and warnings in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The improvements involve the use of two tolerance levels and the delineating of an intermediate threshold by incorporating an exponential curve that relates rainfall intensity and Antecedent Precipitation Index (API). The application of the tolerance levels presents an average increase of 14% in the Probability of Detection (POD) of flood and flash flood occurrences above the upper threshold. Moreover, a considerable exclusion (63%) of non-occurrences of floods and flash floods in between the two thresholds significantly reduce the number of false alarms. The intermediate threshold using the exponential curves also exhibits improvements for almost all time steps of both hydrological hazards, with the best results found for floods correlating 8-h peak intensity and 8 days API, with POD and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) values equal to 81% and 82%, respectively. This study provides strong indications that the new proposed rainfall threshold-based approach can help reduce the uncertainties in predicting the occurrences of floods and flash floods.
published_date 2021-02-01T04:06:29Z
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