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Public and expert perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary

Merryn Thomas

Swansea University Author: Merryn Thomas

Abstract

As coastal communities become increasingly exposed to the risks posed by sea-level change, understanding their beliefs and responses becomes more important. While studies have identified differences in lay and expert understandings of climate change, little research has investigated how these groups...

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Published: Cardiff 2013
Online Access: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/59443/
URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa56187
first_indexed 2021-02-04T09:07:34Z
last_indexed 2025-07-13T02:30:15Z
id cronfa56187
recordtype SURis
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spelling 2025-07-11T12:56:08.4710401 v2 56187 2021-02-04 Public and expert perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary 82aca05941f2ff78c16feb32b01acca9 Merryn Thomas Merryn Thomas true false 2021-02-04 As coastal communities become increasingly exposed to the risks posed by sea-level change, understanding their beliefs and responses becomes more important. While studies have identified differences in lay and expert understandings of climate change, little research has investigated how these groups understand sea-level change. This thesis uses a mental models approach to explore and compare expert and public perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary, a threatened coastal environment in the southwest of the United Kingdom. A three-phase methodology is adopted. First, expert perceptions are investigated through semi-structured interviews, probability elicitations and cognitive mapping with experts in the field of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary (N=11). Second, public perceptions are investigated through mental models interviews that include a semi-structured discussion, a picture sorting task, and a cognitive mapping session (N=20). Third, perceptions raised during public interviews are explored by way of a wider survey of members of the public living around the Severn Estuary (N=359). These perceptions are then compared and contrasted. A grounded approach is utilised to explore themes emerging from expert and public qualitative interviews, while regression analyses explore the relationships between themes explored in the quantitative public survey. Results show areas of public understanding consistent with expert understandings: most public respondents think that sea levels will rise, leading to increased flooding and property damage. However, the Severn Estuary public does not feel well informed about sea-level change, and there are a number of key differences between expert and public perceptions. For example, there is low public salience of some of the key drivers of sea-level change and its indirect impacts. Perceptions are influenced by many factors including information sources, the ways in which individuals think about the future, and the biases that they hold. Many findings are consistent with climate change research more generally. For example, respondents tend to express low concern about sea-level change in relation to other matters such as the economy; they feel detached from the issue, seeing it as something that will happen in the future to other people; and they perceive that neither the causes of nor responses to sea-level change are their responsibility. From an applied perspective, the study fills a research gap in how the Severn Estuary public perceives sea-level change in their region, and provides insights into how it might best be communicated. From a methodological perspective, the study illustrates the utility of using mixed methods, interdisciplinary approaches for investigating public and expert perceptions of specific climate change risks. Thesis Cardiff 1 10 2013 2013-10-01 http://orca.cf.ac.uk/59443/ Thesis available at http://orca.cf.ac.uk/59443/ COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University Not Required 2025-07-11T12:56:08.4710401 2021-02-04T09:07:01.4578468 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Merryn Thomas 1
title Public and expert perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary
spellingShingle Public and expert perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary
Merryn Thomas
title_short Public and expert perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary
title_full Public and expert perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary
title_fullStr Public and expert perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary
title_full_unstemmed Public and expert perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary
title_sort Public and expert perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary
author_id_str_mv 82aca05941f2ff78c16feb32b01acca9
author_id_fullname_str_mv 82aca05941f2ff78c16feb32b01acca9_***_Merryn Thomas
author Merryn Thomas
author2 Merryn Thomas
format Staff Thesis
publishDate 2013
institution Swansea University
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
url http://orca.cf.ac.uk/59443/
document_store_str 0
active_str 0
description As coastal communities become increasingly exposed to the risks posed by sea-level change, understanding their beliefs and responses becomes more important. While studies have identified differences in lay and expert understandings of climate change, little research has investigated how these groups understand sea-level change. This thesis uses a mental models approach to explore and compare expert and public perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary, a threatened coastal environment in the southwest of the United Kingdom. A three-phase methodology is adopted. First, expert perceptions are investigated through semi-structured interviews, probability elicitations and cognitive mapping with experts in the field of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary (N=11). Second, public perceptions are investigated through mental models interviews that include a semi-structured discussion, a picture sorting task, and a cognitive mapping session (N=20). Third, perceptions raised during public interviews are explored by way of a wider survey of members of the public living around the Severn Estuary (N=359). These perceptions are then compared and contrasted. A grounded approach is utilised to explore themes emerging from expert and public qualitative interviews, while regression analyses explore the relationships between themes explored in the quantitative public survey. Results show areas of public understanding consistent with expert understandings: most public respondents think that sea levels will rise, leading to increased flooding and property damage. However, the Severn Estuary public does not feel well informed about sea-level change, and there are a number of key differences between expert and public perceptions. For example, there is low public salience of some of the key drivers of sea-level change and its indirect impacts. Perceptions are influenced by many factors including information sources, the ways in which individuals think about the future, and the biases that they hold. Many findings are consistent with climate change research more generally. For example, respondents tend to express low concern about sea-level change in relation to other matters such as the economy; they feel detached from the issue, seeing it as something that will happen in the future to other people; and they perceive that neither the causes of nor responses to sea-level change are their responsibility. From an applied perspective, the study fills a research gap in how the Severn Estuary public perceives sea-level change in their region, and provides insights into how it might best be communicated. From a methodological perspective, the study illustrates the utility of using mixed methods, interdisciplinary approaches for investigating public and expert perceptions of specific climate change risks.
published_date 2013-10-01T04:53:36Z
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score 11.097799

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