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A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections

Jack Tudor, Matthew Wall Orcid Logo

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, Volume: 34, Issue: 1, Pages: 18 - 40

Swansea University Authors: Jack Tudor, Matthew Wall Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1080/17457289.2021.1972305

Abstract

This article argues that electoral context affects the projection mechanisms inherent in polling. This insight applies both to the estimation of party vote shares by pollsters and to poll-driven substantive political expectations. We test this contention by analysing 794 in-campaign polls covering t...

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Published in: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
ISSN: 1745-7289 1745-7297
Published: Informa UK Limited 2024
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa58301
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first_indexed 2021-10-12T11:51:22Z
last_indexed 2023-01-11T14:38:48Z
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spelling v2 58301 2021-10-12 A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections df9894ac4288a616edc2bae7d573c89a Jack Tudor Jack Tudor true false 22914658d586a5759d4d4b945ea140bd 0000-0001-8265-4910 Matthew Wall Matthew Wall true false 2021-10-12 SOSS This article argues that electoral context affects the projection mechanisms inherent in polling. This insight applies both to the estimation of party vote shares by pollsters and to poll-driven substantive political expectations. We test this contention by analysing 794 in-campaign polls covering the UK’s 21 post-war general elections, as well as an updated version of Jennings and Wlezien’s (2018) international polling dataset. We demonstrate that the election level accounts for a significant portion of the observed variance in polling error. This finding is shown to be valid across several modelling approaches and measures of polling accuracy. Journal Article Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 34 1 18 40 Informa UK Limited 1745-7289 1745-7297 Polling error; electoral context; multi-level modelling; British general elections; intra-class correlation 2 1 2024 2024-01-02 10.1080/17457289.2021.1972305 COLLEGE NANME Social Sciences School COLLEGE CODE SOSS Swansea University 2024-06-05T16:35:53.9726418 2021-10-12T12:39:21.3209125 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Social Sciences - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations Jack Tudor 1 Matthew Wall 0000-0001-8265-4910 2 58301__21144__cc61fd7016dd480d81dfe90903f56ece.pdf Blinded Submission Final.pdf 2021-10-12T12:49:41.8395018 Output 811599 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2023-02-28T00:00:00.0000000 Released under the terms of a CC BY-NC license. true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
title A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
spellingShingle A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
Jack Tudor
Matthew Wall
title_short A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
title_full A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
title_fullStr A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
title_full_unstemmed A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
title_sort A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
author_id_str_mv df9894ac4288a616edc2bae7d573c89a
22914658d586a5759d4d4b945ea140bd
author_id_fullname_str_mv df9894ac4288a616edc2bae7d573c89a_***_Jack Tudor
22914658d586a5759d4d4b945ea140bd_***_Matthew Wall
author Jack Tudor
Matthew Wall
author2 Jack Tudor
Matthew Wall
format Journal article
container_title Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
container_volume 34
container_issue 1
container_start_page 18
publishDate 2024
institution Swansea University
issn 1745-7289
1745-7297
doi_str_mv 10.1080/17457289.2021.1972305
publisher Informa UK Limited
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Social Sciences - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Social Sciences - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations
document_store_str 1
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description This article argues that electoral context affects the projection mechanisms inherent in polling. This insight applies both to the estimation of party vote shares by pollsters and to poll-driven substantive political expectations. We test this contention by analysing 794 in-campaign polls covering the UK’s 21 post-war general elections, as well as an updated version of Jennings and Wlezien’s (2018) international polling dataset. We demonstrate that the election level accounts for a significant portion of the observed variance in polling error. This finding is shown to be valid across several modelling approaches and measures of polling accuracy.
published_date 2024-01-02T16:35:53Z
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score 11.016235

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