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Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface

Mick Roberts, Andrew Dobson, Olivier Restif, Konstans Wells Orcid Logo

Epidemics, Volume: 37, Start page: 100523

Swansea University Author: Konstans Wells Orcid Logo

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Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife-human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need...

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Published in: Epidemics
ISSN: 1755-4365
Published: Elsevier BV 2021
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa58714
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first_indexed 2021-11-20T10:42:16Z
last_indexed 2021-12-08T04:18:57Z
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spelling 2021-12-07T12:17:15.0715556 v2 58714 2021-11-20 Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface d18166c31e89833c55ef0f2cbb551243 0000-0003-0377-2463 Konstans Wells Konstans Wells true false 2021-11-20 SBI The Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife-human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need a better understanding of the dynamic nature of such interfaces, the underpinning diversity of pathogens and host-pathogen association networks, and the scales and frequencies at which environmental conditions enable spillover and host shifting from animals to humans to occur. The major drivers of the emergence of zoonoses are anthropogenic, including the global change in climate and land use. These, and other ecological processes pose challenges that must be overcome to counterbalance pandemic risk. The development of more detailed and nuanced models will provide better tools for analysing and understanding infectious disease emergence and spread. Journal Article Epidemics 37 100523 Elsevier BV 1755-4365 Ecological dynamics; Zoonoses; Spillover; Climate change; Ecological invasions 1 12 2021 2021-12-01 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100523 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences COLLEGE CODE SBI Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee EPSRC grant no. EP/R014604/1 2021-12-07T12:17:15.0715556 2021-11-20T10:37:42.2826422 College of Science Biosciences Mick Roberts 1 Andrew Dobson 2 Olivier Restif 3 Konstans Wells 0000-0003-0377-2463 4 58714__21830__4b8625d336a247fc8ec19c6c38271948.pdf 58714.pdf 2021-12-07T12:15:17.1463609 Output 626216 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2021 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY license true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
spellingShingle Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
Konstans Wells
title_short Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
title_full Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
title_fullStr Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
title_full_unstemmed Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
title_sort Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface
author_id_str_mv d18166c31e89833c55ef0f2cbb551243
author_id_fullname_str_mv d18166c31e89833c55ef0f2cbb551243_***_Konstans Wells
author Konstans Wells
author2 Mick Roberts
Andrew Dobson
Olivier Restif
Konstans Wells
format Journal article
container_title Epidemics
container_volume 37
container_start_page 100523
publishDate 2021
institution Swansea University
issn 1755-4365
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100523
publisher Elsevier BV
college_str College of Science
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hierarchy_top_title College of Science
hierarchy_parent_id collegeofscience
hierarchy_parent_title College of Science
department_str Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}College of Science{{{_:::_}}}Biosciences
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description The Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife-human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need a better understanding of the dynamic nature of such interfaces, the underpinning diversity of pathogens and host-pathogen association networks, and the scales and frequencies at which environmental conditions enable spillover and host shifting from animals to humans to occur. The major drivers of the emergence of zoonoses are anthropogenic, including the global change in climate and land use. These, and other ecological processes pose challenges that must be overcome to counterbalance pandemic risk. The development of more detailed and nuanced models will provide better tools for analysing and understanding infectious disease emergence and spread.
published_date 2021-12-01T04:15:33Z
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