Journal article 983 views 105 downloads
Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure
,
Owen R. Jones,
Luca Borger ,
Novella Franconi ,
Roma Banga,
Kate Lock,
Thomas B. Stringell
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Volume: 288, Issue: 1964, Start page: 20212284
Swansea University Authors:
James Bull , Luca Borger , Novella Franconi
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DOI (Published version): 10.1098/rspb.2021.2284
Abstract
There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longit...
| Published in: | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
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| ISSN: | 0962-8452 1471-2954 |
| Published: |
The Royal Society
2021
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| Online Access: |
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| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa58898 |
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| Abstract: |
There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992–2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus, to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2°C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management. |
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| Item Description: |
Electronic supplementary material is available online at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5713077. |
| Keywords: |
age structure, climate change, grey seal, phenology, population dynamics, sea surface temperature |
| College: |
Faculty of Science and Engineering |
| Funders: |
Natural Resources Wales or its predecessor organization Countryside Council for Wales |
| Issue: |
1964 |
| Start Page: |
20212284 |