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Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)

Hayley Holt, Mohammad Talaei Orcid Logo, Matthew Greenig, Dominik Zenner, Jane Symons, Clare Relton, Katherine S Young, Molly R Davies, Katherine N Thompson, Jed Ashman, Sultan Saeed Rajpoot, Ahmed Ali Kayyale, Sarah El Rifai Orcid Logo, Philippa J Lloyd Orcid Logo, David Jolliffe, Olivia Timmis, Sarah Finer, Stamatina Iliodromiti, Alec Miners, Nicholas S Hopkinson Orcid Logo, Bodrul Alam, Graham Lloyd-Jones Orcid Logo, Thomas Dietrich, Iain Chapple, Paul E Pfeffer Orcid Logo, David McCoy, Gwyneth Davies Orcid Logo, Ronan Lyons Orcid Logo, Christopher Griffiths, Frank Kee Orcid Logo, Aziz Sheikh, Gerome Breen, Seif O Shaheen, Adrian R Martineau Orcid Logo

Thorax, Volume: 77, Issue: 9, Pages: 900 - 912

Swansea University Authors: Gwyneth Davies Orcid Logo, Ronan Lyons Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487

Abstract

Background: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. Methods: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (...

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Published in: Thorax
ISSN: 0040-6376 1468-3296
Published: BMJ 2022
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa58899
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fullrecord <?xml version="1.0"?><rfc1807><datestamp>2022-12-09T11:01:02.4077994</datestamp><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>58899</id><entry>2021-12-06</entry><title>Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>92d69cf8519a334ced3f55142c811d95</sid><ORCID>0000-0003-1218-1008</ORCID><firstname>Gwyneth</firstname><surname>Davies</surname><name>Gwyneth Davies</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author><author><sid>83efcf2a9dfcf8b55586999d3d152ac6</sid><ORCID>0000-0001-5225-000X</ORCID><firstname>Ronan</firstname><surname>Lyons</surname><name>Ronan Lyons</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2021-12-06</date><deptcode>HDAT</deptcode><abstract>Background: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. Methods: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 May 2020 to 5 February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted ORs (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and odds of COVID-19. Results: We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15 227 participants (2.9%). Increased odds of developing COVID-19 were independently associated with Asian/Asian British versus white ethnicity (aOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.91), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11 to 1.43), any versus no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.31, 1.06 to 1.62), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.02 to 1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care versus no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12 to 1.98) and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.50 (1.19 to 1.89) for BMI 25.0&#x2013;30.0 kg/m2 and 1.39 (1.06 to 1.84) for BMI &gt;30.0 kg/m2 versus BMI &lt;25.0 kg/m2). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased odds (aOR 0.75, 0.59 to 0.97). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet or micronutrient supplement use. Conclusions: After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased odds of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased odds. Trial registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04330599).</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Thorax</journal><volume>77</volume><journalNumber>9</journalNumber><paginationStart>900</paginationStart><paginationEnd>912</paginationEnd><publisher>BMJ</publisher><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint>0040-6376</issnPrint><issnElectronic>1468-3296</issnElectronic><keywords/><publishedDay>1</publishedDay><publishedMonth>9</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2022</publishedYear><publishedDate>2022-09-01</publishedDate><doi>10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487</doi><url/><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Health Data Science</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>HDAT</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><funders>Health Data Research UK Grant: MC_PC_19004 Barts Charity Grant: MGU0466 Identifier: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100015652</funders><projectreference/><lastEdited>2022-12-09T11:01:02.4077994</lastEdited><Created>2021-12-06T11:15:30.4370598</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences</level><level id="2">Swansea University Medical School - Medicine</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Hayley</firstname><surname>Holt</surname><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Mohammad</firstname><surname>Talaei</surname><orcid>0000-0002-6901-3665</orcid><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>Matthew</firstname><surname>Greenig</surname><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>Dominik</firstname><surname>Zenner</surname><order>4</order></author><author><firstname>Jane</firstname><surname>Symons</surname><order>5</order></author><author><firstname>Clare</firstname><surname>Relton</surname><order>6</order></author><author><firstname>Katherine S</firstname><surname>Young</surname><order>7</order></author><author><firstname>Molly R</firstname><surname>Davies</surname><order>8</order></author><author><firstname>Katherine N</firstname><surname>Thompson</surname><order>9</order></author><author><firstname>Jed</firstname><surname>Ashman</surname><order>10</order></author><author><firstname>Sultan Saeed</firstname><surname>Rajpoot</surname><order>11</order></author><author><firstname>Ahmed Ali</firstname><surname>Kayyale</surname><order>12</order></author><author><firstname>Sarah El</firstname><surname>Rifai</surname><orcid>0000-0002-9194-479x</orcid><order>13</order></author><author><firstname>Philippa J</firstname><surname>Lloyd</surname><orcid>0000-0002-6946-0780</orcid><order>14</order></author><author><firstname>David</firstname><surname>Jolliffe</surname><order>15</order></author><author><firstname>Olivia</firstname><surname>Timmis</surname><order>16</order></author><author><firstname>Sarah</firstname><surname>Finer</surname><order>17</order></author><author><firstname>Stamatina</firstname><surname>Iliodromiti</surname><order>18</order></author><author><firstname>Alec</firstname><surname>Miners</surname><order>19</order></author><author><firstname>Nicholas S</firstname><surname>Hopkinson</surname><orcid>0000-0003-3235-0454</orcid><order>20</order></author><author><firstname>Bodrul</firstname><surname>Alam</surname><order>21</order></author><author><firstname>Graham</firstname><surname>Lloyd-Jones</surname><orcid>0000-0001-8191-4389</orcid><order>22</order></author><author><firstname>Thomas</firstname><surname>Dietrich</surname><order>23</order></author><author><firstname>Iain</firstname><surname>Chapple</surname><order>24</order></author><author><firstname>Paul E</firstname><surname>Pfeffer</surname><orcid>0000-0003-0369-2885</orcid><order>25</order></author><author><firstname>David</firstname><surname>McCoy</surname><order>26</order></author><author><firstname>Gwyneth</firstname><surname>Davies</surname><orcid>0000-0003-1218-1008</orcid><order>27</order></author><author><firstname>Ronan</firstname><surname>Lyons</surname><orcid>0000-0001-5225-000X</orcid><order>28</order></author><author><firstname>Christopher</firstname><surname>Griffiths</surname><order>29</order></author><author><firstname>Frank</firstname><surname>Kee</surname><orcid>0000-0002-0606-8167</orcid><order>30</order></author><author><firstname>Aziz</firstname><surname>Sheikh</surname><order>31</order></author><author><firstname>Gerome</firstname><surname>Breen</surname><order>32</order></author><author><firstname>Seif O</firstname><surname>Shaheen</surname><order>33</order></author><author><firstname>Adrian R</firstname><surname>Martineau</surname><orcid>0000-0001-5387-1721</orcid><order>34</order></author></authors><documents/><OutputDurs/></rfc1807>
spelling 2022-12-09T11:01:02.4077994 v2 58899 2021-12-06 Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK) 92d69cf8519a334ced3f55142c811d95 0000-0003-1218-1008 Gwyneth Davies Gwyneth Davies true false 83efcf2a9dfcf8b55586999d3d152ac6 0000-0001-5225-000X Ronan Lyons Ronan Lyons true false 2021-12-06 HDAT Background: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. Methods: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 May 2020 to 5 February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted ORs (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and odds of COVID-19. Results: We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15 227 participants (2.9%). Increased odds of developing COVID-19 were independently associated with Asian/Asian British versus white ethnicity (aOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.91), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11 to 1.43), any versus no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.31, 1.06 to 1.62), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.02 to 1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care versus no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12 to 1.98) and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.50 (1.19 to 1.89) for BMI 25.0–30.0 kg/m2 and 1.39 (1.06 to 1.84) for BMI >30.0 kg/m2 versus BMI <25.0 kg/m2). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased odds (aOR 0.75, 0.59 to 0.97). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet or micronutrient supplement use. Conclusions: After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased odds of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased odds. Trial registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04330599). Journal Article Thorax 77 9 900 912 BMJ 0040-6376 1468-3296 1 9 2022 2022-09-01 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487 COLLEGE NANME Health Data Science COLLEGE CODE HDAT Swansea University Health Data Research UK Grant: MC_PC_19004 Barts Charity Grant: MGU0466 Identifier: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100015652 2022-12-09T11:01:02.4077994 2021-12-06T11:15:30.4370598 Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Swansea University Medical School - Medicine Hayley Holt 1 Mohammad Talaei 0000-0002-6901-3665 2 Matthew Greenig 3 Dominik Zenner 4 Jane Symons 5 Clare Relton 6 Katherine S Young 7 Molly R Davies 8 Katherine N Thompson 9 Jed Ashman 10 Sultan Saeed Rajpoot 11 Ahmed Ali Kayyale 12 Sarah El Rifai 0000-0002-9194-479x 13 Philippa J Lloyd 0000-0002-6946-0780 14 David Jolliffe 15 Olivia Timmis 16 Sarah Finer 17 Stamatina Iliodromiti 18 Alec Miners 19 Nicholas S Hopkinson 0000-0003-3235-0454 20 Bodrul Alam 21 Graham Lloyd-Jones 0000-0001-8191-4389 22 Thomas Dietrich 23 Iain Chapple 24 Paul E Pfeffer 0000-0003-0369-2885 25 David McCoy 26 Gwyneth Davies 0000-0003-1218-1008 27 Ronan Lyons 0000-0001-5225-000X 28 Christopher Griffiths 29 Frank Kee 0000-0002-0606-8167 30 Aziz Sheikh 31 Gerome Breen 32 Seif O Shaheen 33 Adrian R Martineau 0000-0001-5387-1721 34
title Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)
spellingShingle Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)
Gwyneth Davies
Ronan Lyons
title_short Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)
title_full Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)
title_fullStr Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)
title_full_unstemmed Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)
title_sort Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)
author_id_str_mv 92d69cf8519a334ced3f55142c811d95
83efcf2a9dfcf8b55586999d3d152ac6
author_id_fullname_str_mv 92d69cf8519a334ced3f55142c811d95_***_Gwyneth Davies
83efcf2a9dfcf8b55586999d3d152ac6_***_Ronan Lyons
author Gwyneth Davies
Ronan Lyons
author2 Hayley Holt
Mohammad Talaei
Matthew Greenig
Dominik Zenner
Jane Symons
Clare Relton
Katherine S Young
Molly R Davies
Katherine N Thompson
Jed Ashman
Sultan Saeed Rajpoot
Ahmed Ali Kayyale
Sarah El Rifai
Philippa J Lloyd
David Jolliffe
Olivia Timmis
Sarah Finer
Stamatina Iliodromiti
Alec Miners
Nicholas S Hopkinson
Bodrul Alam
Graham Lloyd-Jones
Thomas Dietrich
Iain Chapple
Paul E Pfeffer
David McCoy
Gwyneth Davies
Ronan Lyons
Christopher Griffiths
Frank Kee
Aziz Sheikh
Gerome Breen
Seif O Shaheen
Adrian R Martineau
format Journal article
container_title Thorax
container_volume 77
container_issue 9
container_start_page 900
publishDate 2022
institution Swansea University
issn 0040-6376
1468-3296
doi_str_mv 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2021-217487
publisher BMJ
college_str Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
department_str Swansea University Medical School - Medicine{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences{{{_:::_}}}Swansea University Medical School - Medicine
document_store_str 0
active_str 0
description Background: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. Methods: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 May 2020 to 5 February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted ORs (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and odds of COVID-19. Results: We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15 227 participants (2.9%). Increased odds of developing COVID-19 were independently associated with Asian/Asian British versus white ethnicity (aOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.91), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11 to 1.43), any versus no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.31, 1.06 to 1.62), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.02 to 1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care versus no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12 to 1.98) and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.50 (1.19 to 1.89) for BMI 25.0–30.0 kg/m2 and 1.39 (1.06 to 1.84) for BMI >30.0 kg/m2 versus BMI <25.0 kg/m2). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased odds (aOR 0.75, 0.59 to 0.97). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet or micronutrient supplement use. Conclusions: After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased odds of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased odds. Trial registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04330599).
published_date 2022-09-01T04:15:47Z
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