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On revolutions

Armand M. Leroi Orcid Logo, Ben Lambert Orcid Logo, Matthias Mauch Orcid Logo, Marina Papadopoulou Orcid Logo, Sophia Ananiadou, Staffan I. Lindberg Orcid Logo, Patrik Lindenfors

Palgrave Communications, Volume: 6, Issue: 1

Swansea University Author: Marina Papadopoulou Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1057/s41599-019-0371-1

Abstract

Sometimes the normal course of events is disrupted by a particularly swift and profound change. Historians have often referred to such changes as “revolutions”, and, though they have identified many of them, they have rarely supported their claims with statistical evidence. Here, we present a method...

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Published in: Palgrave Communications
ISSN: 2055-1045
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2020
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa59583
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spelling 2022-03-30T09:40:55.1138253 v2 59583 2022-03-11 On revolutions a2fe90e37bd6b78c6fdb9e640057c0ea 0000-0002-6478-8365 Marina Papadopoulou Marina Papadopoulou true false 2022-03-11 BGPS Sometimes the normal course of events is disrupted by a particularly swift and profound change. Historians have often referred to such changes as “revolutions”, and, though they have identified many of them, they have rarely supported their claims with statistical evidence. Here, we present a method to identify revolutions based on a measure of multivariate rate of change called Foote novelty. We define revolutions as those periods of time when the value of this measure is, by a non-parametric test, shown to significantly exceed the background rate. Our method also identifies conservative periods when the rate of change is unusually low. We apply it to several quantitative data sets that capture long-term political, social and cultural changes and, in some of them, identify revolutions — both well known and not. Our method is general and can be applied to any phenomenon captured by multivariate time series data of sufficient quality. Journal Article Palgrave Communications 6 1 Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2055-1045 7 1 2020 2020-01-07 10.1057/s41599-019-0371-1 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University B.L. was supported by EPSRC grant code: EP/F500394/1. V-Dem data collection was supported by European Research Council, Grant 724191; Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, Grant M13-0559:1; Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation to Wallenberg Academy Fellow, Grant 2013.0166; as well as by internal grants from the Vice-Chancellor’s office, the Dean of the College of Social Sciences, and the Department of Political Science at University of Gothenburg and the Marianne and Marcus Wallenbergs Foundation Grant 2017.0049. 2022-03-30T09:40:55.1138253 2022-03-11T09:39:12.0366041 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Armand M. Leroi 0000-0002-5603-0351 1 Ben Lambert 0000-0003-4274-4158 2 Matthias Mauch 0000-0002-4352-6809 3 Marina Papadopoulou 0000-0002-6478-8365 4 Sophia Ananiadou 5 Staffan I. Lindberg 0000-0003-0386-7390 6 Patrik Lindenfors 7 59583__23734__5df3f107ed0043c4b443e267340b1b01.pdf 59583.pdf 2022-03-30T09:39:22.4434676 Output 2298886 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title On revolutions
spellingShingle On revolutions
Marina Papadopoulou
title_short On revolutions
title_full On revolutions
title_fullStr On revolutions
title_full_unstemmed On revolutions
title_sort On revolutions
author_id_str_mv a2fe90e37bd6b78c6fdb9e640057c0ea
author_id_fullname_str_mv a2fe90e37bd6b78c6fdb9e640057c0ea_***_Marina Papadopoulou
author Marina Papadopoulou
author2 Armand M. Leroi
Ben Lambert
Matthias Mauch
Marina Papadopoulou
Sophia Ananiadou
Staffan I. Lindberg
Patrik Lindenfors
format Journal article
container_title Palgrave Communications
container_volume 6
container_issue 1
publishDate 2020
institution Swansea University
issn 2055-1045
doi_str_mv 10.1057/s41599-019-0371-1
publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
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hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
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description Sometimes the normal course of events is disrupted by a particularly swift and profound change. Historians have often referred to such changes as “revolutions”, and, though they have identified many of them, they have rarely supported their claims with statistical evidence. Here, we present a method to identify revolutions based on a measure of multivariate rate of change called Foote novelty. We define revolutions as those periods of time when the value of this measure is, by a non-parametric test, shown to significantly exceed the background rate. Our method also identifies conservative periods when the rate of change is unusually low. We apply it to several quantitative data sets that capture long-term political, social and cultural changes and, in some of them, identify revolutions — both well known and not. Our method is general and can be applied to any phenomenon captured by multivariate time series data of sufficient quality.
published_date 2020-01-07T02:30:47Z
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