No Cover Image

Journal article 42 views 3 downloads

Runoff Forecast for the Flood Season Based on Physical Factors and Their Effect Process and Its Application in the Second Songhua River Basin, China

Yangzong Cidan, Hongyan Li, Yunqing Xuan Orcid Logo, Hong Sun, Fang You

Sustainability, Volume: 14, Issue: 17, Start page: 10627

Swansea University Author: Yunqing Xuan Orcid Logo

  • sustainability-14-10627.pdf

    PDF | Version of Record

    © 2022 by the authors. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license

    Download (4.44MB)

Check full text

DOI (Published version): 10.3390/su141710627

Abstract

The Second Songhua River Basin is located at the northern edge of the East Asian monsoonregion in China. The river basin has a large interannual rainfall-runoff variation often associated withfrequent droughts and floods. Therefore, the mid-long-term runoff prediction is of great significance.Accord...

Full description

Published in: Sustainability
ISSN: 2071-1050
Published: MDPI AG 2022
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa60997
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Abstract: The Second Songhua River Basin is located at the northern edge of the East Asian monsoonregion in China. The river basin has a large interannual rainfall-runoff variation often associated withfrequent droughts and floods. Therefore, the mid-long-term runoff prediction is of great significance.According to a review of the national and international literature, there are few studies on sunspots inthe prediction of medium- and long-term runoff. In this study, sunspots are selected as the influencingfactors of runoff based on the mechanism of astronomical factors; sensitivity analysis was used toidentify the time delay of sunspots’ influence on runoff and determine the prediction factor (relativenumber of sunspots in January and March). The BP (backpropagation) network is used to identifythe correlation between prediction factors and prediction items (monthly average inflow rate of theFengman Reservoir and the Baishan Reservoir in the flood season), and then the prediction model isconstructed. According to the test results of historical data and the actual forecast results, the forecastis working well, and the accuracy of qualitative forecasting is high.
Keywords: medium-long-term runoff forecast; sunspots; BP (backpropagation) network; sensitivity analysis; Second Songhua River Basin
College: College of Engineering
Funders: This study was supported by key R&D project funding from Jilin Province Science and Technology Department, China, 20200403070SF.
Issue: 17
Start Page: 10627