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A Comparison Study of Observed and the CMIP5 Modelled Precipitation over Iraq 1941–2005

Salam Abbas, Yunqing Xuan Orcid Logo, Ali H. Al-Rammahi Orcid Logo, Haider F. Addab

Atmosphere, Volume: 13, Issue: 11, Start page: 1869

Swansea University Authors: Salam Abbas, Yunqing Xuan Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.3390/atmos13111869

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the annual precipitation observed by a network of 30 rain gauges in Iraq over a 65-year period (1941–2005). The simulated precipitation from 18 climate models in the CMIP5 project is investigated over the same area and time window. The Mann–Kendall test is used to...

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Published in: Atmosphere
ISSN: 2073-4433
Published: MDPI AG 2022
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa61872
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Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the annual precipitation observed by a network of 30 rain gauges in Iraq over a 65-year period (1941–2005). The simulated precipitation from 18 climate models in the CMIP5 project is investigated over the same area and time window. The Mann–Kendall test is used to assess the strength and the significance of the trends (if any) in both the simulations and the observations. Several exploratory techniques are used to identify the similarity (or disagreement) in the probability distributions that are fitted to both datasets. While the results show that large biases exist in the projected rainfall data compared with the observation, a clear agreement is also observed between the observed and modelled annual precipitation time series with respect to the direction of the trends of annual precipitation over the period.
Keywords: precipitation; trend analysis; Iraq; climate projection; CMIP5
College: Faculty of Science and Engineering
Funders: This research received no external funding.
Issue: 11
Start Page: 1869