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A ~700 years perspective on the 21st century drying in the eastern part of Europe based on δ18O in tree ring cellulose

Viorica Nagavciuc Orcid Logo, Monica Ionita Orcid Logo, Zoltán Kern Orcid Logo, Danny McCarroll, Ionel Popa Orcid Logo

Communications Earth and Environment, Volume: 3, Issue: 1

Swansea University Author: Danny McCarroll

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DOI (Published version): 10.1038/s43247-022-00605-4

Abstract

Numerical simulations indicate that extreme climate events (e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves) will increase in a warming world, putting enormous pressure on society and political decision-makers. To provide a long-term perspective on the variability of these extreme events, here we use a ~700 year...

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Published in: Communications Earth and Environment
ISSN: 2662-4435
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2022
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa62008
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first_indexed 2022-11-23T08:53:49Z
last_indexed 2023-01-13T19:23:10Z
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spelling 2022-12-15T13:06:01.5828742 v2 62008 2022-11-23 A ~700 years perspective on the 21st century drying in the eastern part of Europe based on δ18O in tree ring cellulose 6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960 Danny McCarroll Danny McCarroll true false 2022-11-23 FGSEN Numerical simulations indicate that extreme climate events (e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves) will increase in a warming world, putting enormous pressure on society and political decision-makers. To provide a long-term perspective on the variability of these extreme events, here we use a ~700 years tree-ring oxygen isotope chronology from Eastern Europe, in combination with paleo-reanalysis data, to show that the summer drying over Eastern Europe observed over the last ~150 years is to the best of our knowledge unprecedented over the last 700 years. This drying is driven by a change in the pressure patterns over Europe, characterized by a shift from zonal to a wavier flow around 1850CE, leading to extreme summer droughts and aridification. To our knowledge, this is the first and longest reconstruction of drought variability, based on stable oxygen isotopes in the tree-ring cellulose, for Eastern Europe, helping to fill a gap in the spatial coverage of paleoclimate reconstructions. Journal Article Communications Earth and Environment 3 1 Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2662-4435 15 11 2022 2022-11-15 10.1038/s43247-022-00605-4 COLLEGE NANME Science and Engineering - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGSEN Swansea University Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. 2022-12-15T13:06:01.5828742 2022-11-23T08:45:13.4394822 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Viorica Nagavciuc 0000-0003-1111-9616 1 Monica Ionita 0000-0001-8240-4380 2 Zoltán Kern 0000-0003-4900-2587 3 Danny McCarroll 4 Ionel Popa 0000-0003-0069-0905 5 62008__25875__b41911ddc57348528276421a04e6bac0.pdf 62008.pdf 2022-11-23T08:52:15.5954368 Output 6026921 application/pdf Version of Record true This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title A ~700 years perspective on the 21st century drying in the eastern part of Europe based on δ18O in tree ring cellulose
spellingShingle A ~700 years perspective on the 21st century drying in the eastern part of Europe based on δ18O in tree ring cellulose
Danny McCarroll
title_short A ~700 years perspective on the 21st century drying in the eastern part of Europe based on δ18O in tree ring cellulose
title_full A ~700 years perspective on the 21st century drying in the eastern part of Europe based on δ18O in tree ring cellulose
title_fullStr A ~700 years perspective on the 21st century drying in the eastern part of Europe based on δ18O in tree ring cellulose
title_full_unstemmed A ~700 years perspective on the 21st century drying in the eastern part of Europe based on δ18O in tree ring cellulose
title_sort A ~700 years perspective on the 21st century drying in the eastern part of Europe based on δ18O in tree ring cellulose
author_id_str_mv 6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960
author_id_fullname_str_mv 6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960_***_Danny McCarroll
author Danny McCarroll
author2 Viorica Nagavciuc
Monica Ionita
Zoltán Kern
Danny McCarroll
Ionel Popa
format Journal article
container_title Communications Earth and Environment
container_volume 3
container_issue 1
publishDate 2022
institution Swansea University
issn 2662-4435
doi_str_mv 10.1038/s43247-022-00605-4
publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Numerical simulations indicate that extreme climate events (e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves) will increase in a warming world, putting enormous pressure on society and political decision-makers. To provide a long-term perspective on the variability of these extreme events, here we use a ~700 years tree-ring oxygen isotope chronology from Eastern Europe, in combination with paleo-reanalysis data, to show that the summer drying over Eastern Europe observed over the last ~150 years is to the best of our knowledge unprecedented over the last 700 years. This drying is driven by a change in the pressure patterns over Europe, characterized by a shift from zonal to a wavier flow around 1850CE, leading to extreme summer droughts and aridification. To our knowledge, this is the first and longest reconstruction of drought variability, based on stable oxygen isotopes in the tree-ring cellulose, for Eastern Europe, helping to fill a gap in the spatial coverage of paleoclimate reconstructions.
published_date 2022-11-15T04:21:17Z
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score 11.035634

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