Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model

PALMER, LEWIS; Robertson, Iain; Lavergne, Aliénor; Hemming, Deborah; Loader, Neil; Young, Giles; Davies, Darren; Rinne‐Garmston, Katja; Los, Sietse; Williams, Jamie

doi:10.1029/2022jg007041

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Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model

LEWIS PALMER, Iain Robertson

, Aliénor Lavergne, Deborah Hemming, Neil Loader

, Giles Young, Darren Davies, Katja Rinne‐Garmston, Sietse Los, Jamie Williams

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Volume: 127, Issue: 12

Swansea University Authors: LEWIS PALMER, Iain Robertson , Neil Loader , Giles Young, Darren Davies, Sietse Los, Jamie Williams

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DOI (Published version): 10.1029/2022jg007041

Abstract

Stable carbon isotopes in plants can help evaluate and improve the representation of carbon and water cycles in land-surface models, increasing confidence in projections of vegetation response to climate change. Here, we evaluated the predictive skills of the Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator (J...

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Published in:	Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
ISSN:	2169-8953 2169-8961
Published:	American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2022
Online Access:	Check full text
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Here, we evaluated the predictive skills of the Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator (JULES) to capture spatio-temporal variations in carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) reconstructed by tree rings at twelve sites in the United Kingdom over the period 1979-2016. Modelled and measured Δ13C time series were compared at each site and their relationships with local climate investigated. Modelled Δ13C time series were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with tree-ring Δ13C at eight sites, but JULES underestimated mean Δ13C values at all sites, by up to 2.6‰. Differences in mean Δ13C may result from post-photosynthetic isotopic fractionations that were not considered in JULES. Inter-annual variability in Δ13C was also underestimated by JULES at all sites. While modelled Δ13C typically increased over time across the UK, tree-ring Δ13C values increased only at five sites located in the northern regions but decreased at the southern-most sites. Considering all sites together, JULES captured the overall influence of environmental drivers on Δ13C but failed to capture the direction of change in Δ13C caused by air temperature, atmospheric CO2 and vapour pressure deficit at some sites. Results indicate that the representation of carbon-water coupling in JULES could be improved to reproduce both the trend and magnitude of interannual variability in isotopic records, the influence of local climate on Δ13C, and to reduce uncertainties in predicting vegetation-environment interactions.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences</journal><volume>127</volume><journalNumber>12</journalNumber><paginationStart/><paginationEnd/><publisher>American Geophysical Union (AGU)</publisher><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint>2169-8953</issnPrint><issnElectronic>2169-8961</issnElectronic><keywords>carbon isotope discrimination; tree-ring; JULES; land-surface model; UK</keywords><publishedDay>4</publishedDay><publishedMonth>12</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2022</publishedYear><publishedDate>2022-12-04</publishedDate><doi>10.1029/2022jg007041</doi><url/><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm>SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal)</apcterm><funders>L.P. was supported by Swansea University’s SPIN placement grant. A.L was funded by a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement no: 838739 ECAW-ISO). K.R.-G. ackowledges funding from European Research Council (755865) and Academy of Finland (295319). The BIFoR FACE facility is a research infrastructure project supported by the JABBS foundation and the University of Birmingham. The facility has received support for scientific studies from the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council, the JABBS foundation, and The John Horseman Trust. NJL thanks Rob Wilson and Gareth James for field and laboratory support, the UK NERC (NE/P011527/1) and Leverhulme Trust (RPG-327-2014). 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spelling	2022-12-12T09:14:42.2738053 v2 62118 2022-12-05 Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model ac305f9529f6f960813716f777dafd42 LEWIS PALMER LEWIS PALMER true false ef8912c57e0140e9ecb2a69b7e34467e 0000-0001-7174-4523 Iain Robertson Iain Robertson true false 8267a62100791965d08df6a7842676e6 0000-0002-6841-1813 Neil Loader Neil Loader true false e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a Giles Young Giles Young true false 9fa284670cd135b40307d8550bfbb306 Darren Davies Darren Davies true false 6d529d947d3b37d7597b36956983cf16 Sietse Los Sietse Los true false 24aaa3f5bed634d203a882021484c76a Jamie Williams Jamie Williams true false 2022-12-05 Stable carbon isotopes in plants can help evaluate and improve the representation of carbon and water cycles in land-surface models, increasing confidence in projections of vegetation response to climate change. Here, we evaluated the predictive skills of the Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator (JULES) to capture spatio-temporal variations in carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) reconstructed by tree rings at twelve sites in the United Kingdom over the period 1979-2016. Modelled and measured Δ13C time series were compared at each site and their relationships with local climate investigated. Modelled Δ13C time series were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with tree-ring Δ13C at eight sites, but JULES underestimated mean Δ13C values at all sites, by up to 2.6‰. Differences in mean Δ13C may result from post-photosynthetic isotopic fractionations that were not considered in JULES. Inter-annual variability in Δ13C was also underestimated by JULES at all sites. While modelled Δ13C typically increased over time across the UK, tree-ring Δ13C values increased only at five sites located in the northern regions but decreased at the southern-most sites. Considering all sites together, JULES captured the overall influence of environmental drivers on Δ13C but failed to capture the direction of change in Δ13C caused by air temperature, atmospheric CO2 and vapour pressure deficit at some sites. Results indicate that the representation of carbon-water coupling in JULES could be improved to reproduce both the trend and magnitude of interannual variability in isotopic records, the influence of local climate on Δ13C, and to reduce uncertainties in predicting vegetation-environment interactions. Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 127 12 American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2169-8953 2169-8961 carbon isotope discrimination; tree-ring; JULES; land-surface model; UK 4 12 2022 2022-12-04 10.1029/2022jg007041 COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal) L.P. was supported by Swansea University’s SPIN placement grant. A.L was funded by a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement no: 838739 ECAW-ISO). K.R.-G. ackowledges funding from European Research Council (755865) and Academy of Finland (295319). The BIFoR FACE facility is a research infrastructure project supported by the JABBS foundation and the University of Birmingham. The facility has received support for scientific studies from the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council, the JABBS foundation, and The John Horseman Trust. NJL thanks Rob Wilson and Gareth James for field and laboratory support, the UK NERC (NE/P011527/1) and Leverhulme Trust (RPG-327-2014). Jamie Williams was supported by a NERC grant (NE/G523763/1). 2022-12-12T09:14:42.2738053 2022-12-05T10:35:36.7157398 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography LEWIS PALMER 1 Iain Robertson 0000-0001-7174-4523 2 Aliénor Lavergne 3 Deborah Hemming 4 Neil Loader 0000-0002-6841-1813 5 Giles Young 6 Darren Davies 7 Katja Rinne‐Garmston 8 Sietse Los 9 Jamie Williams 10 62118__26055__4047b00eb7c349fd9ccf34abcb08d892.pdf 62118.VOR.pdf 2022-12-12T08:48:42.7491518 Output 2238688 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2022. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title	Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model
spellingShingle	Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model LEWIS PALMER Iain Robertson Neil Loader Giles Young Darren Davies Sietse Los Jamie Williams
title_short	Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model
title_full	Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model
title_fullStr	Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model
title_full_unstemmed	Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model
title_sort	Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model
author_id_str_mv	ac305f9529f6f960813716f777dafd42 ef8912c57e0140e9ecb2a69b7e34467e 8267a62100791965d08df6a7842676e6 e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a 9fa284670cd135b40307d8550bfbb306 6d529d947d3b37d7597b36956983cf16 24aaa3f5bed634d203a882021484c76a
author_id_fullname_str_mv	ac305f9529f6f960813716f777dafd42_*_LEWIS PALMER ef8912c57e0140e9ecb2a69b7e34467e__Iain Robertson 8267a62100791965d08df6a7842676e6__Neil Loader e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a__Giles Young 9fa284670cd135b40307d8550bfbb306__Darren Davies 6d529d947d3b37d7597b36956983cf16__Sietse Los 24aaa3f5bed634d203a882021484c76a_**_Jamie Williams
author	LEWIS PALMER Iain Robertson Neil Loader Giles Young Darren Davies Sietse Los Jamie Williams
author2	LEWIS PALMER Iain Robertson Aliénor Lavergne Deborah Hemming Neil Loader Giles Young Darren Davies Katja Rinne‐Garmston Sietse Los Jamie Williams
format	Journal article
container_title	Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
container_volume	127
container_issue	12
publishDate	2022
institution	Swansea University
issn	2169-8953 2169-8961
doi_str_mv	10.1029/2022jg007041
publisher	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
college_str	Faculty of Science and Engineering
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hierarchy_top_title	Faculty of Science and Engineering
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department_str	School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
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description	Stable carbon isotopes in plants can help evaluate and improve the representation of carbon and water cycles in land-surface models, increasing confidence in projections of vegetation response to climate change. Here, we evaluated the predictive skills of the Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator (JULES) to capture spatio-temporal variations in carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) reconstructed by tree rings at twelve sites in the United Kingdom over the period 1979-2016. Modelled and measured Δ13C time series were compared at each site and their relationships with local climate investigated. Modelled Δ13C time series were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with tree-ring Δ13C at eight sites, but JULES underestimated mean Δ13C values at all sites, by up to 2.6‰. Differences in mean Δ13C may result from post-photosynthetic isotopic fractionations that were not considered in JULES. Inter-annual variability in Δ13C was also underestimated by JULES at all sites. While modelled Δ13C typically increased over time across the UK, tree-ring Δ13C values increased only at five sites located in the northern regions but decreased at the southern-most sites. Considering all sites together, JULES captured the overall influence of environmental drivers on Δ13C but failed to capture the direction of change in Δ13C caused by air temperature, atmospheric CO2 and vapour pressure deficit at some sites. Results indicate that the representation of carbon-water coupling in JULES could be improved to reproduce both the trend and magnitude of interannual variability in isotopic records, the influence of local climate on Δ13C, and to reduce uncertainties in predicting vegetation-environment interactions.
published_date	2022-12-04T04:19:10Z
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score	10.938396

Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model

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