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Trajectories in chronic disease accrual and mortality across the lifespan in Wales, UK (2005–2019), by area deprivation profile: linked electronic health records cohort study on 965,905 individuals

Jane Lyons, Ashley Akbari Orcid Logo, Keith R. Abrams, Amaya Azcoaga Lorenzo, Thamer Ba Dhafari, James Chess, Spiros Denaxas, Rich Fry Orcid Logo, Chris P. Gale, John Gallacher, Lucy Griffiths Orcid Logo, Bruce Guthrie Orcid Logo, Marlous Hall, Farideh Jalali-najafabadi, Ann John Orcid Logo, Clare MacRae, Colin McCowan, Niels Peek, Dermot O’Reilly, Jim Rafferty Orcid Logo, Ronan Lyons Orcid Logo, Rhiannon Owen Orcid Logo

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Volume: 32, Start page: 100687

Swansea University Authors: Jane Lyons, Ashley Akbari Orcid Logo, Rich Fry Orcid Logo, Lucy Griffiths Orcid Logo, Ann John Orcid Logo, Jim Rafferty Orcid Logo, Ronan Lyons Orcid Logo, Rhiannon Owen Orcid Logo

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Abstract

Background: Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to in...

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Published in: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
ISSN: 2666-7762
Published: Elsevier BV 2023
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa63905
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Abstract: Background: Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortality between socioeconomic groups in Wales, UK.Methods: Population-wide electronic linked cohort study, following Welsh residents for up to 20 years (2000-2019). Chronic disease diagnoses were obtained from general practice and hospitalisation records using the CALIBER disease phenotype register. Multi-state models were used to examine trajectories of accrual of 132 diseases and mortality, adjusted for sex, age and area-level deprivation. Restricted mean survival time was calculated to measure time spent free of chronic disease(s) or mortality between socioeconomic groups.Findings: In total, 965,905 individuals aged 5-104 were included, from a possible 2.9 m individuals following a 5-year clearance period, with an average follow-up of 13.2 years (12.7 million person-years). Some 673,189 (69.7%) individuals developed at least one chronic disease or died within the study period. From ages 10 years upwards, the individuals living in the most deprived areas consistently experienced reduced time between health states, demonstrating accelerated transitions to first and subsequent morbidities and death compared to their demographic equivalent living in the least deprived areas. The largest difference were observed in 10 and 20 year old males developing multimorbidity (-0.45 years (99% CI: -0.45, -0.44)) and in 70 year old males dying after developing multimorbidity (-1.98 years (99% CI: -2.01, -1.95)).Interpretation: This study adds to the existing literature on health inequalities by demonstrating that individuals living in more deprived areas consistently experience accelerated time to diagnosis of chronic disease and death across all ages, accounting for competing risks.
Keywords: Chronic Disease, Mortality, Disease Trajectories, Population, Health Equity
College: Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
Funders: UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and Administrative Data Research Wales (MRS02770/1).
Start Page: 100687