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Conference Paper/Proceeding/Abstract 138 views

An interactive tool for enhancing hospital capacity predictions using an epidemiological model

F. Gibson, R. Fabbro, Alma Rahat Orcid Logo, T. Torsney-Weir, D. Archambault, Michael Gravenor Orcid Logo, Biagio Lucini Orcid Logo

Proceedings of the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference Companion

Swansea University Authors: Alma Rahat Orcid Logo, Michael Gravenor Orcid Logo, Biagio Lucini Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1145/3449726.3462738

Abstract

Hospital managers have limited resources, and they have to plan on how best to allocate these resources based on predicted demand, which is often based on linear or exponential models. In this paper, we propose an interactive tool that produces a forecast of bed occupancy based on an epidemiological...

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Published in: Proceedings of the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference Companion
ISBN: 978-1-4503-8351-6 978-1-4503-8351-6
Published: New York, NY, USA ACM 2021
Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3449726.3462738
URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64016
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Abstract: Hospital managers have limited resources, and they have to plan on how best to allocate these resources based on predicted demand, which is often based on linear or exponential models. In this paper, we propose an interactive tool that produces a forecast of bed occupancy based on an epidemiological model. We optimise this model to fit recently observed data, and interactivity is conferred through a controllable parameter of the model such that users can readily investigate hypothetical scenarios for planning purposes. This study was designed with the Welsh National Health Service, and was born out of their practical need of accurately modelling hospital occupancy during the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.
Item Description: Editor: Francisco Chicano
College: Faculty of Science and Engineering