Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

Bevan, Suzanne; Cornford, Stephen; Gilbert, Lin; Otosaka, Inés; Martin, Daniel; Surawy-Stepney, Trystan

doi:10.1017/jog.2023.57

Journal article 377 views 61 downloads

Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

Suzanne Bevan

, Stephen Cornford, Lin Gilbert, Inés Otosaka, Daniel Martin

, Trystan Surawy-Stepney

Journal of Glaciology, Pages: 1 - 11

Swansea University Author: Suzanne Bevan

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DOI (Published version): 10.1017/jog.2023.57

Abstract

Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external f...

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Published in:	Journal of Glaciology
ISSN:	0022-1430 1727-5652
Published:	Cambridge University Press (CUP) 2023
Online Access:	Check full text
URI:	https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64517
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first_indexed	2023-09-13T08:19:27Z
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spelling	v2 64517 2023-09-13 Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change 758d19253522c8c306d4eea0e6e484f6 0000-0003-2649-2982 Suzanne Bevan Suzanne Bevan true false 2023-09-13 BGPS Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively. Journal Article Journal of Glaciology 0 1 11 Cambridge University Press (CUP) 0022-1430 1727-5652 Antarctic glaciology, glaciological model experiments, ice-sheet modelling 14 8 2023 2023-08-14 10.1017/jog.2023.57 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal) This publication was supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 71. Support for this work was provided through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research and Advanced Scientific Computing Research programs, as a part of the ProSPect SciDAC Partnership. Work at Berkeley Lab was supported by the Director, Office of Science, of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. This research used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science User Facility located at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, operated under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 using NERSC award ASCR-ERCAPm1041. 2024-09-16T16:50:50.2919786 2023-09-13T09:17:25.0746148 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Suzanne Bevan 0000-0003-2649-2982 1 Stephen Cornford 2 Lin Gilbert 3 Inés Otosaka 4 Daniel Martin 0000-0003-4488-2538 5 Trystan Surawy-Stepney 6 64517__28519__f6f6d228d65c4b889d8bc1889f2e141e.pdf 64517.VOR.pdf 2023-09-13T09:20:34.3331441 Output 16545637 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The International Glaciological Society. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title	Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change
spellingShingle	Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change Suzanne Bevan
title_short	Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change
title_full	Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change
title_fullStr	Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change
title_full_unstemmed	Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change
title_sort	Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change
author_id_str_mv	758d19253522c8c306d4eea0e6e484f6
author_id_fullname_str_mv	758d19253522c8c306d4eea0e6e484f6_***_Suzanne Bevan
author	Suzanne Bevan
author2	Suzanne Bevan Stephen Cornford Lin Gilbert Inés Otosaka Daniel Martin Trystan Surawy-Stepney
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description	Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.
published_date	2023-08-14T16:50:49Z
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Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

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