No Cover Image

Journal article 361 views 27 downloads

Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years

Jim Jordan Orcid Logo, B. W. J. Miles Orcid Logo, G. H. Gudmundsson Orcid Logo, S. S. R. Jamieson Orcid Logo, A. Jenkins Orcid Logo, C. R. Stokes Orcid Logo

Nature Communications, Volume: 14, Issue: 1

Swansea University Author: Jim Jordan Orcid Logo

  • 64520.pdf

    PDF | Version of Record

    © The Author(s) 2023. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0).

    Download (3.23MB)

Check full text

DOI (Published version): 10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2

Abstract

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the curre...

Full description

Published in: Nature Communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2023
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64520
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
first_indexed 2023-09-19T14:03:26Z
last_indexed 2023-09-19T14:03:26Z
id cronfa64520
recordtype SURis
fullrecord <?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><rfc1807 xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema"><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>64520</id><entry>2023-09-13</entry><title>Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>6f28f48bfe39cb898ba51e3114889cbe</sid><ORCID>0000-0001-8117-1976</ORCID><firstname>Jim</firstname><surname>Jordan</surname><name>Jim Jordan</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2023-09-13</date><deptcode>SGE</deptcode><abstract>The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the current ocean regime, with only limited intrusions of mCDW, the EAIS will likely gain mass over the next 200 years due to the increased precipitation from a warming atmosphere outweighing increased ice discharge due to ice-shelf melting. However, if the ocean regime were to become dominated by greater mCDW intrusions, the EAIS would have a negative mass balance, contributing up to 48 mm of SLE over this time period. Our modelling finds George V Land to be particularly at risk to increased ocean induced melting. With warmer oceans, we also find that a mid range RCP4.5 emissions scenario is likely to result in a more negative mass balance than a high RCP8.5 emissions scenario, as the relative difference between increased precipitation due to a warming atmosphere and increased ice discharge due to a warming ocean is more negative in the mid range RCP4.5 emission scenario.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Nature Communications</journal><volume>14</volume><journalNumber>1</journalNumber><paginationStart/><paginationEnd/><publisher>Springer Science and Business Media LLC</publisher><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint/><issnElectronic>2041-1723</issnElectronic><keywords>East Antarctic Ice Sheet, EAIS, modified Circumpolar Deep Water, mCDW, ice sheet model, ice discharge, ice-shelf melting</keywords><publishedDay>1</publishedDay><publishedMonth>4</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2023</publishedYear><publishedDate>2023-04-01</publishedDate><doi>10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2</doi><url>http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2</url><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Geography</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>SGE</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><funders>This work was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, grant number NE/R000719/1. This publication was supported by PROTECT. J.R.J., H.G. and A.J. have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 55. B.W.J.M. was supported by a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship (ECF-2021-484).</funders><projectreference/><lastEdited>2023-10-04T13:25:27.2392119</lastEdited><Created>2023-09-13T10:45:55.5050019</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Science and Engineering</level><level id="2">School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Jim</firstname><surname>Jordan</surname><orcid>0000-0001-8117-1976</orcid><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>B. W. J.</firstname><surname>Miles</surname><orcid>0000-0002-3388-4688</orcid><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>G. H.</firstname><surname>Gudmundsson</surname><orcid>0000-0003-4236-5369</orcid><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>S. S. R.</firstname><surname>Jamieson</surname><orcid>0000-0002-9036-2317</orcid><order>4</order></author><author><firstname>A.</firstname><surname>Jenkins</surname><orcid>0000-0002-9117-0616</orcid><order>5</order></author><author><firstname>C. R.</firstname><surname>Stokes</surname><orcid>0000-0003-3355-1573</orcid><order>6</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>64520__28589__8f7f0b570f424e5aa04ac2ced04e2c44.pdf</filename><originalFilename>64520.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2023-09-19T15:02:59.5209310</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>3388557</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Version of Record</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><documentNotes>© The Author(s) 2023. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0).</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>eng</language><licence>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</licence></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807>
spelling v2 64520 2023-09-13 Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years 6f28f48bfe39cb898ba51e3114889cbe 0000-0001-8117-1976 Jim Jordan Jim Jordan true false 2023-09-13 SGE The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the current ocean regime, with only limited intrusions of mCDW, the EAIS will likely gain mass over the next 200 years due to the increased precipitation from a warming atmosphere outweighing increased ice discharge due to ice-shelf melting. However, if the ocean regime were to become dominated by greater mCDW intrusions, the EAIS would have a negative mass balance, contributing up to 48 mm of SLE over this time period. Our modelling finds George V Land to be particularly at risk to increased ocean induced melting. With warmer oceans, we also find that a mid range RCP4.5 emissions scenario is likely to result in a more negative mass balance than a high RCP8.5 emissions scenario, as the relative difference between increased precipitation due to a warming atmosphere and increased ice discharge due to a warming ocean is more negative in the mid range RCP4.5 emission scenario. Journal Article Nature Communications 14 1 Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2041-1723 East Antarctic Ice Sheet, EAIS, modified Circumpolar Deep Water, mCDW, ice sheet model, ice discharge, ice-shelf melting 1 4 2023 2023-04-01 10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2 COLLEGE NANME Geography COLLEGE CODE SGE Swansea University This work was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, grant number NE/R000719/1. This publication was supported by PROTECT. J.R.J., H.G. and A.J. have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 55. B.W.J.M. was supported by a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship (ECF-2021-484). 2023-10-04T13:25:27.2392119 2023-09-13T10:45:55.5050019 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Jim Jordan 0000-0001-8117-1976 1 B. W. J. Miles 0000-0002-3388-4688 2 G. H. Gudmundsson 0000-0003-4236-5369 3 S. S. R. Jamieson 0000-0002-9036-2317 4 A. Jenkins 0000-0002-9117-0616 5 C. R. Stokes 0000-0003-3355-1573 6 64520__28589__8f7f0b570f424e5aa04ac2ced04e2c44.pdf 64520.pdf 2023-09-19T15:02:59.5209310 Output 3388557 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Author(s) 2023. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0). true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
spellingShingle Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
Jim Jordan
title_short Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_full Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_fullStr Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_full_unstemmed Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_sort Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
author_id_str_mv 6f28f48bfe39cb898ba51e3114889cbe
author_id_fullname_str_mv 6f28f48bfe39cb898ba51e3114889cbe_***_Jim Jordan
author Jim Jordan
author2 Jim Jordan
B. W. J. Miles
G. H. Gudmundsson
S. S. R. Jamieson
A. Jenkins
C. R. Stokes
format Journal article
container_title Nature Communications
container_volume 14
container_issue 1
publishDate 2023
institution Swansea University
issn 2041-1723
doi_str_mv 10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2
publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the current ocean regime, with only limited intrusions of mCDW, the EAIS will likely gain mass over the next 200 years due to the increased precipitation from a warming atmosphere outweighing increased ice discharge due to ice-shelf melting. However, if the ocean regime were to become dominated by greater mCDW intrusions, the EAIS would have a negative mass balance, contributing up to 48 mm of SLE over this time period. Our modelling finds George V Land to be particularly at risk to increased ocean induced melting. With warmer oceans, we also find that a mid range RCP4.5 emissions scenario is likely to result in a more negative mass balance than a high RCP8.5 emissions scenario, as the relative difference between increased precipitation due to a warming atmosphere and increased ice discharge due to a warming ocean is more negative in the mid range RCP4.5 emission scenario.
published_date 2023-04-01T13:25:29Z
_version_ 1778827740094398464
score 11.021648

Similar Items