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Northward range expansions are not the full story: A case study of Sabellaria alveolata in Great Britain

Cami Domy, Becca Stone, Ruth Callaway, James Bull Orcid Logo

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Volume: 294, Start page: 108543

Swansea University Authors: Cami Domy, Becca Stone, Ruth Callaway, James Bull Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.ecss.2023.108543

Abstract

Warming oceans are causing changes in the distribution of numerous species. If greenhouse gas production continues to follow current trends, further distribution changes will result. It is often assumed that range shifts into higher latitudes may mitigate threats to susceptible species. Sabellaria a...

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Published in: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
ISSN: 0272-7714
Published: Elsevier BV 2023
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64896
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Recent SST was then combined with predicted SST increases, leading to suitable habitat locations expanding across the southern and western GB coastlines and resulting in larger patches, hence potential for connectivity. Some northern extension was observed; however, this was limited and patchy. The greatest extensions were seen on the south coast, with most of the south coast becoming a continuous network with excellent suitability. With an increase of 1.2 °C, the extent of coast in the excellent suitability class was increased by 5.75% compared to 2020, and by 38.1% with 3.2 °C. Despite the importance of winter temperature in driving S. alveolata distribution, over-riding environmental constraints prevented any major northward migration. 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spelling v2 64896 2023-11-02 Northward range expansions are not the full story: A case study of Sabellaria alveolata in Great Britain 64de9f5eb09ce71be1f3094a91e4563b Cami Domy Cami Domy true false 88ea2ad322496fa7f1955d2c2c0cd193 Becca Stone Becca Stone true false 61d7fe28cbb286de1c9c43f45014c490 Ruth Callaway Ruth Callaway true false 20742518482c020c80b81b88e5313356 0000-0002-4373-6830 James Bull James Bull true false 2023-11-02 FGSEN Warming oceans are causing changes in the distribution of numerous species. If greenhouse gas production continues to follow current trends, further distribution changes will result. It is often assumed that range shifts into higher latitudes may mitigate threats to susceptible species. Sabellaria alveolata is an important intertidal ecosystem engineer and protected by the UK Biodiversity Action Plan. In this study we created a habitat suitability model for S. alveolata around Great Britain and quantified changes in coastal suitability with increasing sea surface temperatures (SST) using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios modelled by the International Panel on Climate Change. The model included maximum and minimum SST, substrate, slope, kinetic energy due to waves and currents, photosynthetically active radiation, and the coefficient of light attenuation. The model performed very well (AUC = 0.932, 50.2% of deviance explained) and all variables explaining comparable deviance (up to 10%). Recent SST was then combined with predicted SST increases, leading to suitable habitat locations expanding across the southern and western GB coastlines and resulting in larger patches, hence potential for connectivity. Some northern extension was observed; however, this was limited and patchy. The greatest extensions were seen on the south coast, with most of the south coast becoming a continuous network with excellent suitability. With an increase of 1.2 °C, the extent of coast in the excellent suitability class was increased by 5.75% compared to 2020, and by 38.1% with 3.2 °C. Despite the importance of winter temperature in driving S. alveolata distribution, over-riding environmental constraints prevented any major northward migration. The assertion that potential for range shifts to higher latitudes may mitigate the effects of climate change depends on niche availability which may not always be realised. Journal Article Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 294 108543 Elsevier BV 0272-7714 Sabellaria alveolata, Habitat suitability model, Great Britain, Climate change, RCP, Range shift 30 10 2023 2023-10-30 10.1016/j.ecss.2023.108543 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2023.108543 COLLEGE NANME Science and Engineering - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGSEN Swansea University SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal) RS was funded by a PhD scholarship from Tidal Lagoon Swansea Bay (TLSB). Work presented here also formed part of research undertaken by CD in fulfilment of an MSc at Swansea University. 2023-11-07T15:06:19.3687287 2023-11-02T08:24:48.9198007 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Cami Domy 1 Becca Stone 2 Ruth Callaway 3 James Bull 0000-0002-4373-6830 4 64896__28953__1f354b3d604046fa9bec20b652802786.pdf 64896.VOR.pdf 2023-11-07T15:02:27.0981160 Output 6346387 application/pdf Version of Record true This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license . true eng This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license
title Northward range expansions are not the full story: A case study of Sabellaria alveolata in Great Britain
spellingShingle Northward range expansions are not the full story: A case study of Sabellaria alveolata in Great Britain
Cami Domy
Becca Stone
Ruth Callaway
James Bull
title_short Northward range expansions are not the full story: A case study of Sabellaria alveolata in Great Britain
title_full Northward range expansions are not the full story: A case study of Sabellaria alveolata in Great Britain
title_fullStr Northward range expansions are not the full story: A case study of Sabellaria alveolata in Great Britain
title_full_unstemmed Northward range expansions are not the full story: A case study of Sabellaria alveolata in Great Britain
title_sort Northward range expansions are not the full story: A case study of Sabellaria alveolata in Great Britain
author_id_str_mv 64de9f5eb09ce71be1f3094a91e4563b
88ea2ad322496fa7f1955d2c2c0cd193
61d7fe28cbb286de1c9c43f45014c490
20742518482c020c80b81b88e5313356
author_id_fullname_str_mv 64de9f5eb09ce71be1f3094a91e4563b_***_Cami Domy
88ea2ad322496fa7f1955d2c2c0cd193_***_Becca Stone
61d7fe28cbb286de1c9c43f45014c490_***_Ruth Callaway
20742518482c020c80b81b88e5313356_***_James Bull
author Cami Domy
Becca Stone
Ruth Callaway
James Bull
author2 Cami Domy
Becca Stone
Ruth Callaway
James Bull
format Journal article
container_title Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
container_volume 294
container_start_page 108543
publishDate 2023
institution Swansea University
issn 0272-7714
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.ecss.2023.108543
publisher Elsevier BV
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department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2023.108543
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description Warming oceans are causing changes in the distribution of numerous species. If greenhouse gas production continues to follow current trends, further distribution changes will result. It is often assumed that range shifts into higher latitudes may mitigate threats to susceptible species. Sabellaria alveolata is an important intertidal ecosystem engineer and protected by the UK Biodiversity Action Plan. In this study we created a habitat suitability model for S. alveolata around Great Britain and quantified changes in coastal suitability with increasing sea surface temperatures (SST) using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios modelled by the International Panel on Climate Change. The model included maximum and minimum SST, substrate, slope, kinetic energy due to waves and currents, photosynthetically active radiation, and the coefficient of light attenuation. The model performed very well (AUC = 0.932, 50.2% of deviance explained) and all variables explaining comparable deviance (up to 10%). Recent SST was then combined with predicted SST increases, leading to suitable habitat locations expanding across the southern and western GB coastlines and resulting in larger patches, hence potential for connectivity. Some northern extension was observed; however, this was limited and patchy. The greatest extensions were seen on the south coast, with most of the south coast becoming a continuous network with excellent suitability. With an increase of 1.2 °C, the extent of coast in the excellent suitability class was increased by 5.75% compared to 2020, and by 38.1% with 3.2 °C. Despite the importance of winter temperature in driving S. alveolata distribution, over-riding environmental constraints prevented any major northward migration. The assertion that potential for range shifts to higher latitudes may mitigate the effects of climate change depends on niche availability which may not always be realised.
published_date 2023-10-30T15:06:23Z
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