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The effect of relative hypotension on 30-day mortality in older people receiving emergency care

James David van Oppen Orcid Logo, Rhiannon Owen Orcid Logo, William Jones, Lucy Beishon, Timothy John Coats

Internal and Emergency Medicine, Volume: 19, Pages: 787 - 795

Swansea University Author: Rhiannon Owen Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1007/s11739-023-03468-5

Abstract

Research has observed increased mortality among older people attending the emergency department (ED) who had systolic pressure > 7 mmHg lower than baseline primary care values. This study aimed to (1) assess feasibility of identifying this ‘relative hypotension’ using readily available ED data, (...

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Published in: Internal and Emergency Medicine
ISSN: 1828-0447 1970-9366
Published: Springer Nature 2024
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64945
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This study aimed to (1) assess feasibility of identifying this ‘relative hypotension’ using readily available ED data, (2) externally validate the 7 mmHg threshold, and (3) refine a threshold for clinically important relative hypotension. A single-centre retrospective cohort study linked year 2019 data for ED attendances by people aged over 64 to hospital discharge vital signs within the previous 18 months. Frailty and comorbidity scores were calculated. Previous discharge (‘baseline’) vital signs were subtracted from initial ED values to give individuals’ relative change. Cox regression analysis compared relative hypotension &gt; 7 mmHg with mean time to mortality censored at 30 days. The relative hypotension threshold was refined using a fully adjusted risk tool formed of logistic regression models. Receiver operating characteristics were compared to NEWS2 models with and without incorporation of relative systolic. 5136 (16%) of 32,548 ED attendances were linkable with recent discharge vital signs. Relative hypotension &gt; 7 mmHg was associated with increased 30-day mortality (HR 1.98; 95% CI 1.66–2.35). The adjusted risk tool (AUC: 0.69; sensitivity: 0.61; specificity: 0.68) estimated each 1 mmHg relative hypotension to increase 30-day mortality by 2% (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.02–1.02). 30-day mortality prediction was marginally better with NEWS2 (AUC: 0.73; sensitivity: 0.59; specificity: 0.78) and NEWS2 + relative systolic (AUC: 0.74; sensitivity: 0.63; specificity: 0.75). Comparison of ED vital signs with recent discharge observations was feasible for 16% individuals. The association of relative hypotension &gt; 7 mmHg with 30-day mortality was externally validated. Indeed, any relative hypotension appeared to increase risk, but model characteristics were poor. 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spelling v2 64945 2023-11-09 The effect of relative hypotension on 30-day mortality in older people receiving emergency care 0d30aa00eef6528f763a1e1589f703ec 0000-0001-5977-376X Rhiannon Owen Rhiannon Owen true false 2023-11-09 MEDS Research has observed increased mortality among older people attending the emergency department (ED) who had systolic pressure > 7 mmHg lower than baseline primary care values. This study aimed to (1) assess feasibility of identifying this ‘relative hypotension’ using readily available ED data, (2) externally validate the 7 mmHg threshold, and (3) refine a threshold for clinically important relative hypotension. A single-centre retrospective cohort study linked year 2019 data for ED attendances by people aged over 64 to hospital discharge vital signs within the previous 18 months. Frailty and comorbidity scores were calculated. Previous discharge (‘baseline’) vital signs were subtracted from initial ED values to give individuals’ relative change. Cox regression analysis compared relative hypotension > 7 mmHg with mean time to mortality censored at 30 days. The relative hypotension threshold was refined using a fully adjusted risk tool formed of logistic regression models. Receiver operating characteristics were compared to NEWS2 models with and without incorporation of relative systolic. 5136 (16%) of 32,548 ED attendances were linkable with recent discharge vital signs. Relative hypotension > 7 mmHg was associated with increased 30-day mortality (HR 1.98; 95% CI 1.66–2.35). The adjusted risk tool (AUC: 0.69; sensitivity: 0.61; specificity: 0.68) estimated each 1 mmHg relative hypotension to increase 30-day mortality by 2% (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.02–1.02). 30-day mortality prediction was marginally better with NEWS2 (AUC: 0.73; sensitivity: 0.59; specificity: 0.78) and NEWS2 + relative systolic (AUC: 0.74; sensitivity: 0.63; specificity: 0.75). Comparison of ED vital signs with recent discharge observations was feasible for 16% individuals. The association of relative hypotension > 7 mmHg with 30-day mortality was externally validated. Indeed, any relative hypotension appeared to increase risk, but model characteristics were poor. These findings are limited to the context of older people with recent hospital admissions. Journal Article Internal and Emergency Medicine 19 787 795 Springer Nature 1828-0447 1970-9366 Emergency care, Geriatrics, Early warning score, Physiology 1 4 2024 2024-04-01 10.1007/s11739-023-03468-5 COLLEGE NANME Medical School COLLEGE CODE MEDS Swansea University Statistical analyses were conducted with funding from the Royal College of Emergency Medicine. Three authors received National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) grants: Doctoral Research Fellowship (JvO), Academic Clinical Lectureship (LB), Senior Investigator (TC). RKO is supported by the Academy of Medical Sciences/the Wellcome Trust/ the Government Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy/the British Heart Foundation/Diabetes UK Springboard Award (SBF006\1122). 2024-09-30T15:31:30.8460257 2023-11-09T08:26:08.7177672 Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science James David van Oppen 0000-0002-2570-7112 1 Rhiannon Owen 0000-0001-5977-376X 2 William Jones 3 Lucy Beishon 4 Timothy John Coats 5 64945__29209__07216e7d4481428b988d66320fa239cf.pdf 64945.VOR.pdf 2023-12-05T11:54:35.7839963 Output 578917 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Author(s) 2023. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title The effect of relative hypotension on 30-day mortality in older people receiving emergency care
spellingShingle The effect of relative hypotension on 30-day mortality in older people receiving emergency care
Rhiannon Owen
title_short The effect of relative hypotension on 30-day mortality in older people receiving emergency care
title_full The effect of relative hypotension on 30-day mortality in older people receiving emergency care
title_fullStr The effect of relative hypotension on 30-day mortality in older people receiving emergency care
title_full_unstemmed The effect of relative hypotension on 30-day mortality in older people receiving emergency care
title_sort The effect of relative hypotension on 30-day mortality in older people receiving emergency care
author_id_str_mv 0d30aa00eef6528f763a1e1589f703ec
author_id_fullname_str_mv 0d30aa00eef6528f763a1e1589f703ec_***_Rhiannon Owen
author Rhiannon Owen
author2 James David van Oppen
Rhiannon Owen
William Jones
Lucy Beishon
Timothy John Coats
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container_title Internal and Emergency Medicine
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container_start_page 787
publishDate 2024
institution Swansea University
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doi_str_mv 10.1007/s11739-023-03468-5
publisher Springer Nature
college_str Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
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hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
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hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
department_str Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences{{{_:::_}}}Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science
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description Research has observed increased mortality among older people attending the emergency department (ED) who had systolic pressure > 7 mmHg lower than baseline primary care values. This study aimed to (1) assess feasibility of identifying this ‘relative hypotension’ using readily available ED data, (2) externally validate the 7 mmHg threshold, and (3) refine a threshold for clinically important relative hypotension. A single-centre retrospective cohort study linked year 2019 data for ED attendances by people aged over 64 to hospital discharge vital signs within the previous 18 months. Frailty and comorbidity scores were calculated. Previous discharge (‘baseline’) vital signs were subtracted from initial ED values to give individuals’ relative change. Cox regression analysis compared relative hypotension > 7 mmHg with mean time to mortality censored at 30 days. The relative hypotension threshold was refined using a fully adjusted risk tool formed of logistic regression models. Receiver operating characteristics were compared to NEWS2 models with and without incorporation of relative systolic. 5136 (16%) of 32,548 ED attendances were linkable with recent discharge vital signs. Relative hypotension > 7 mmHg was associated with increased 30-day mortality (HR 1.98; 95% CI 1.66–2.35). The adjusted risk tool (AUC: 0.69; sensitivity: 0.61; specificity: 0.68) estimated each 1 mmHg relative hypotension to increase 30-day mortality by 2% (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.02–1.02). 30-day mortality prediction was marginally better with NEWS2 (AUC: 0.73; sensitivity: 0.59; specificity: 0.78) and NEWS2 + relative systolic (AUC: 0.74; sensitivity: 0.63; specificity: 0.75). Comparison of ED vital signs with recent discharge observations was feasible for 16% individuals. The association of relative hypotension > 7 mmHg with 30-day mortality was externally validated. Indeed, any relative hypotension appeared to increase risk, but model characteristics were poor. These findings are limited to the context of older people with recent hospital admissions.
published_date 2024-04-01T15:31:29Z
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