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State of Wildfires 2023–2024
Matthew W. Jones,
Douglas I. Kelley 
,
Chantelle A. Burton ,
Francesca Di Giuseppe ,
Maria Lucia F. Barbosa,
Esther Brambleby ,
Andrew J. Hartley ,
Anna Lombardi,
Guilherme Mataveli ,
Joe R. McNorton,
Fiona R. Spuler,
Jakob B. Wessel,
John T. Abatzoglou,
Liana O. Anderson ,
Niels Andela,
Sally Archibald ,
Dolors Armenteras ,
Eleanor Burke ,
Rachel Carmenta,
Emilio Chuvieco ,
Hamish Clarke,
Stefan Doerr ,
Paulo M. Fernandes,
Louis Giglio,
Douglas S. Hamilton,
Stijn Hantson ,
Sarah Harris ,
Piyush Jain,
Crystal A. Kolden,
Tiina Kurvits,
Seppe Lampe ,
Sarah Meier,
Stacey New ,
Mark Parrington ,
Morgane M. G. Perron,
Yuquan Qu,
Natasha S. Ribeiro,
Bambang H. Saharjo,
Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz,
Jacquelyn K. Shuman,
Veerachai Tanpipat,
Guido R. van der Werf ,
Sander Veraverbeke ,
Gavriil Xanthopoulos
,
Chantelle A. Burton ,
Francesca Di Giuseppe ,
Maria Lucia F. Barbosa,
Esther Brambleby ,
Andrew J. Hartley ,
Anna Lombardi,
Guilherme Mataveli ,
Joe R. McNorton,
Fiona R. Spuler,
Jakob B. Wessel,
John T. Abatzoglou,
Liana O. Anderson ,
Niels Andela,
Sally Archibald ,
Dolors Armenteras ,
Eleanor Burke ,
Rachel Carmenta,
Emilio Chuvieco ,
Hamish Clarke,
Stefan Doerr ,
Paulo M. Fernandes,
Louis Giglio,
Douglas S. Hamilton,
Stijn Hantson ,
Sarah Harris ,
Piyush Jain,
Crystal A. Kolden,
Tiina Kurvits,
Seppe Lampe ,
Sarah Meier,
Stacey New ,
Mark Parrington ,
Morgane M. G. Perron,
Yuquan Qu,
Natasha S. Ribeiro,
Bambang H. Saharjo,
Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz,
Jacquelyn K. Shuman,
Veerachai Tanpipat,
Guido R. van der Werf ,
Sander Veraverbeke ,
Gavriil Xanthopoulos
Earth System Science Data, Volume: 16, Issue: 8, Pages: 3601 - 3685
Swansea University Author:
Stefan Doerr
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© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
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DOI (Published version): 10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024
Abstract
Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research...
| Published in: | Earth System Science Data |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1866-3516 |
| Published: |
Copernicus GmbH
2024
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| Online Access: |
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| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa67374 |
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| Abstract: |
Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–2024 fire season, 3.9×106 km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global fire C emissions were increased by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and reduced by low emissions from African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking fire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawaii (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece, a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires, whereas burned area anomalies were weaker in regions with lower fuel loads and higher direct suppression, particularly in Canada. Fire weather prediction in Canada showed a mild anomalous signal 1 to 2 months in advance, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution analyses indicated that modelled anomalies in burned area were up to 40 %, 18 %, and 50 % higher due to climate change in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia during the 2023–2024 fire season, respectively. Meanwhile, the probability of extreme fire seasons of these magnitudes has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude to 2023 in Canada are projected to occur 6.3–10.8 times more frequently under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society's resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation. New datasets presented in this work are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley et al., 2024a) |
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| College: |
Faculty of Science and Engineering |
| Funders: |
Matthew W. Jones was funded by the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (NE/V01417X/1). Douglas I. Kelley was supported by UKRI NERC as part of the LTSM2 TerraFIRMA project and NC-International programme (NE/X006247/1) delivering National Capability. Chantelle A. Burton was funded by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) Brazil project, which is supported by the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT), and by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by DSIT. Paulo M. Fernandes received support from National Funds by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (project UIDB/04033/2020, https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04033/2020). Francesca Di Giuseppe and JMCTS70 were both funded by a service contract from the Joint Research Centre (no. 942604) issued by the Joint Research Centre on behalf of the European Commission. Liana O. Anderson was supported by the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) (projects: 2021/07660-2 and 2020/16457-3) and by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), productivity scholarship (process: 314473/2020-3). Guilherme Mataveli was supported by FAPESP (grants 2019/25701-8, 2020/15230-5 and 2023/03206-0). Seppe Lampe was supported by a PhD Fundamental Research Grant by Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek– Vlaanderen (11M7723N). Sarah Meier was supported by the Dragon Capital Chair on Biodiversity Economics. Emilio Chuvieco was supported by the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) programme (FireCCI: contract no. 4000126706/19/I-NB). Crystal A. Kolden was supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (award 2022-67019-36435). Yuquan Qu was supported by the China Scholarship Council (CSC) under grant number 201906040220. Morgane M. G. Perron was supported by a HORIZON EUROPE Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Postdoctoral Fellowship 2021, funding number 101064063. Hamish Clarke was funded by the Westpac Scholars Trust via a Westpac Research Fellowship (HamishClarkeFellowship). Stefan H. Doerr was supported by UKRI NERC (grant NE/X005143/1) and the FirEUrisk project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003890. Esther Brambleby was supported by the UKRI NERC ARIES Doctoral Training Partnership (grant number NE/S007334/1). Jacquelyn K. Shuman was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) FireSense project. Niels Andela was supported by the Sense4Fire project as part of the European Space Agency C Cycle Cluster (ESA contract numbers: 4000134840/21/I-NB). Maria Lucia F. Barbosa was supported by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), FinanceCode001. The contribution of Sander Veraverbeke was funded by a Consolidator grant from the European Research Council (grant agreement no. 101000987). Rachel Carmenta was financially supported by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. |
| Issue: |
8 |
| Start Page: |
3601 |
| End Page: |
3685 |