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The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review

Gregor H Mathes Orcid Logo, Catalina Pimiento Orcid Logo, Wolfgang Kiessling, Jens-Christian Svenning Orcid Logo, Manuel J Steinbauer

Cambridge Prisms: Extinction, Volume: 3, Start page: e6

Swansea University Author: Catalina Pimiento Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1017/ext.2025.2

Abstract

One of the main objectives of ecological research is to enhance our understanding of the processes that lead to species extinction. A potentially crucial extinction pattern is the dependence of contemporary biodiversity dynamics on past climates, also known as "climate legacy". However, th...

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Published in: Cambridge Prisms: Extinction
ISSN: 2755-0958
Published: Cambridge University Press (CUP) 2025
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa69265
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Here, we conduct a systematic review to summarize the effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics. We find that few works studying the relationship between extinction dynamics and climate include the potential impact of climate legacies (10%), with even fewer studies reaching beyond merely discussing them (3%). Among the studies that quantified climate legacies, six out of seven reported an improved fit of models to extinction dynamics, with most also describing substantial impacts of legacy effects on extinction risk. These include an increase in extinction risk of up to 40% when temperature changes add to a long-term trend in the same direction, as well as substantial effects on species' adaptations, population dynamics and juvenile recruitment. 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spelling 2025-04-10T14:24:55.1298076 v2 69265 2025-04-10 The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review 7dd222e2a1d5971b3f3963f0501a9d4f 0000-0002-5320-7246 Catalina Pimiento Catalina Pimiento true false 2025-04-10 BGPS One of the main objectives of ecological research is to enhance our understanding of the processes that lead to species extinction. A potentially crucial extinction pattern is the dependence of contemporary biodiversity dynamics on past climates, also known as "climate legacy". However, the general impact of climate legacy on extinction dynamics is unknown. Here, we conduct a systematic review to summarize the effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics. We find that few works studying the relationship between extinction dynamics and climate include the potential impact of climate legacies (10%), with even fewer studies reaching beyond merely discussing them (3%). Among the studies that quantified climate legacies, six out of seven reported an improved fit of models to extinction dynamics, with most also describing substantial impacts of legacy effects on extinction risk. These include an increase in extinction risk of up to 40% when temperature changes add to a long-term trend in the same direction, as well as substantial effects on species' adaptations, population dynamics and juvenile recruitment. Various ecological processes have been identified in the literature as potential ways in which climate legacies could affect the vulnerability of modern ecosystems to anthropogenic climate change, including niche conservatism, physiological thresholds, time lags and cascading effects. Overall, we find high agreement that climate legacy is a crucial process shaping extinction dynamics. Incorporating climate legacies in biodiversity assessments could be a key step toward a better understanding of the ecological consequences arising from climate change. Journal Article Cambridge Prisms: Extinction 3 e6 Cambridge University Press (CUP) 2755-0958 Climate Legacies; Extinction Dynamics; Biodiversity Loss; Ecological Mechanisms; Anthropogenic Climate Change 17 3 2025 2025-03-17 10.1017/ext.2025.2 Review COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee This work was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (KI 806/16-1 and STE 2360/2-1) and is embedded in the Research Unit TERSANE (FOR 2332: Temperature-related stressors as a unifying principle in ancient extinctions). CP acknowledges funding through a PRIMA grant from the Swiss National Science Foundation (No. 185798). JCS considers this work a contribution to Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO), funded by Danish National Research Foundation (grant No. DNRF173) as well as to his VILLUM Investigator project “Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World” funded by VILLUM FONDEN (grant No. 16549). MJS acknowledges support by the European Research Council grant No. 741413 Humans on Planet Earth (HOPE). 2025-04-10T14:24:55.1298076 2025-04-10T14:14:11.1097203 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Gregor H Mathes 0000-0002-2788-1173 1 Catalina Pimiento 0000-0002-5320-7246 2 Wolfgang Kiessling 3 Jens-Christian Svenning 0000-0002-3415-0862 4 Manuel J Steinbauer 5 69265__34000__573670757ac84714925e7e7ff0c2bd4d.pdf 69265.VOR.pdf 2025-04-10T14:19:10.4197709 Output 630741 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Author(s), 2025. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial licence (CC BY-NC). true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
title The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review
spellingShingle The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review
Catalina Pimiento
title_short The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review
title_full The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review
title_fullStr The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review
title_full_unstemmed The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review
title_sort The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review
author_id_str_mv 7dd222e2a1d5971b3f3963f0501a9d4f
author_id_fullname_str_mv 7dd222e2a1d5971b3f3963f0501a9d4f_***_Catalina Pimiento
author Catalina Pimiento
author2 Gregor H Mathes
Catalina Pimiento
Wolfgang Kiessling
Jens-Christian Svenning
Manuel J Steinbauer
format Journal article
container_title Cambridge Prisms: Extinction
container_volume 3
container_start_page e6
publishDate 2025
institution Swansea University
issn 2755-0958
doi_str_mv 10.1017/ext.2025.2
publisher Cambridge University Press (CUP)
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
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description One of the main objectives of ecological research is to enhance our understanding of the processes that lead to species extinction. A potentially crucial extinction pattern is the dependence of contemporary biodiversity dynamics on past climates, also known as "climate legacy". However, the general impact of climate legacy on extinction dynamics is unknown. Here, we conduct a systematic review to summarize the effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics. We find that few works studying the relationship between extinction dynamics and climate include the potential impact of climate legacies (10%), with even fewer studies reaching beyond merely discussing them (3%). Among the studies that quantified climate legacies, six out of seven reported an improved fit of models to extinction dynamics, with most also describing substantial impacts of legacy effects on extinction risk. These include an increase in extinction risk of up to 40% when temperature changes add to a long-term trend in the same direction, as well as substantial effects on species' adaptations, population dynamics and juvenile recruitment. Various ecological processes have been identified in the literature as potential ways in which climate legacies could affect the vulnerability of modern ecosystems to anthropogenic climate change, including niche conservatism, physiological thresholds, time lags and cascading effects. Overall, we find high agreement that climate legacy is a crucial process shaping extinction dynamics. Incorporating climate legacies in biodiversity assessments could be a key step toward a better understanding of the ecological consequences arising from climate change.
published_date 2025-03-17T05:26:29Z
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