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Assessing Streamflow Responses to Future Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change in a Transitional Brazilian Basin Between Semiarid Dry Forest and Humid Tropical Forest Biomes

Vanine Elane Menezes de Farias Orcid Logo, Suzana Maria Gico Lima Montenegro Orcid Logo, Richarde Marques da Silva Orcid Logo, Yunqing Xuan Orcid Logo, Bruno e Silva Ursulino Orcid Logo, Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos Orcid Logo

Hydrological Processes, Volume: 39, Issue: 11

Swansea University Author: Yunqing Xuan Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1002/hyp.70316

Abstract

Historically, severe drought events, coupled with land use and land cover changes, have significantly influenced streamflow behaviour This study enhances the understanding of these hydrological processes by assessing streamflow responses to future climate and land use and land cover change in a tran...

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Published in: Hydrological Processes
ISSN: 0885-6087 1099-1085
Published: Wiley 2025
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa70898
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spelling 2026-01-16T11:24:05.6056443 v2 70898 2025-11-13 Assessing Streamflow Responses to Future Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change in a Transitional Brazilian Basin Between Semiarid Dry Forest and Humid Tropical Forest Biomes 3ece84458da360ff84fa95aa1c0c912b 0000-0003-2736-8625 Yunqing Xuan Yunqing Xuan true false 2025-11-13 ACEM Historically, severe drought events, coupled with land use and land cover changes, have significantly influenced streamflow behaviour This study enhances the understanding of these hydrological processes by assessing streamflow responses to future climate and land use and land cover change in a transitional Brazilian basin between semiarid and humid tropical forest biomes. Projections from 10 global climate models available through the Climate Change Dataset for Brazil (CLIMBra) were utilised incorporating bias correction via the Quantile Mapping method. Future land use and land cover changes were simulated using the land change modeller (LCM), while hydrological projections were generated through the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), which was calibrated and validated with satisfactory performance, achieving coefficients of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) efficiencies in the ranges of 0.62–0.79 and 0.61–0.76 for calibration and 0.48–0.90 and 0.41–0.84 for validation, respectively. The results indicate a substantial expansion of agricultural and pasture areas, with a 280% increase over recent decades. Climate projections under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios show a progressive temperature rise and declining rainfall trends, with the SSP5–8.5 scenario exhibiting a steeper increase in temperature. Paradoxically, hydrological modelling suggests an intensification of streamflow extremes, with peak discharges ranging from 200 to 300 m3/s, particularly, in regions prone to extreme precipitation events. Notably, under SSP5–8.5, a more pronounced rise in flood peaks is observed, indicating elevated flood risks, even in moderate emissions scenarios. These findings underscore the necessity for adaptive water resource management strategies to mitigate future hydrological vulnerabilities in the basin. Journal Article Hydrological Processes 39 11 Wiley 0885-6087 1099-1085 climate variability; future projections; land use and land cover change; Northeast Brazil 13 11 2025 2025-11-13 10.1002/hyp.70316 COLLEGE NANME Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, and Mechanical Engineering COLLEGE CODE ACEM Swansea University Other Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—CAPES); National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico—CNPq); INCT—National Water Security and Adaptive Management Observatory. Grant Number: 406919/2022-4; Call No. 58/2022/CNPq, CNPq/MCTIC/BRICS 29/2017. Grant Number: 442335/2017-2; Universal MCTIC/CNPq 28/2018; Productivity in Research Scholarships—PQ. Grant Numbers: 313392/2020-0, 313358/2021-4, 309330/2021-1 2026-01-16T11:24:05.6056443 2025-11-13T19:59:05.7493106 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering Vanine Elane Menezes de Farias 0000-0002-2339-7528 1 Suzana Maria Gico Lima Montenegro 0000-0002-2520-5761 2 Richarde Marques da Silva 0000-0001-6601-5174 3 Yunqing Xuan 0000-0003-2736-8625 4 Bruno e Silva Ursulino 0000-0002-4891-6195 5 Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos 0000-0001-7927-9718 6 70898__35627__62733ab3d90241cb8afc6ff8fd66a2a8.pdf Hydrological Processes - 2025 - Farias - Assessing Streamflow Responses to Future Climate and Land Use and Land Cover.pdf 2025-11-13T20:00:50.2285605 Output 8598883 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2025 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Assessing Streamflow Responses to Future Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change in a Transitional Brazilian Basin Between Semiarid Dry Forest and Humid Tropical Forest Biomes
spellingShingle Assessing Streamflow Responses to Future Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change in a Transitional Brazilian Basin Between Semiarid Dry Forest and Humid Tropical Forest Biomes
Yunqing Xuan
title_short Assessing Streamflow Responses to Future Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change in a Transitional Brazilian Basin Between Semiarid Dry Forest and Humid Tropical Forest Biomes
title_full Assessing Streamflow Responses to Future Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change in a Transitional Brazilian Basin Between Semiarid Dry Forest and Humid Tropical Forest Biomes
title_fullStr Assessing Streamflow Responses to Future Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change in a Transitional Brazilian Basin Between Semiarid Dry Forest and Humid Tropical Forest Biomes
title_full_unstemmed Assessing Streamflow Responses to Future Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change in a Transitional Brazilian Basin Between Semiarid Dry Forest and Humid Tropical Forest Biomes
title_sort Assessing Streamflow Responses to Future Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change in a Transitional Brazilian Basin Between Semiarid Dry Forest and Humid Tropical Forest Biomes
author_id_str_mv 3ece84458da360ff84fa95aa1c0c912b
author_id_fullname_str_mv 3ece84458da360ff84fa95aa1c0c912b_***_Yunqing Xuan
author Yunqing Xuan
author2 Vanine Elane Menezes de Farias
Suzana Maria Gico Lima Montenegro
Richarde Marques da Silva
Yunqing Xuan
Bruno e Silva Ursulino
Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos
format Journal article
container_title Hydrological Processes
container_volume 39
container_issue 11
publishDate 2025
institution Swansea University
issn 0885-6087
1099-1085
doi_str_mv 10.1002/hyp.70316
publisher Wiley
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Historically, severe drought events, coupled with land use and land cover changes, have significantly influenced streamflow behaviour This study enhances the understanding of these hydrological processes by assessing streamflow responses to future climate and land use and land cover change in a transitional Brazilian basin between semiarid and humid tropical forest biomes. Projections from 10 global climate models available through the Climate Change Dataset for Brazil (CLIMBra) were utilised incorporating bias correction via the Quantile Mapping method. Future land use and land cover changes were simulated using the land change modeller (LCM), while hydrological projections were generated through the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), which was calibrated and validated with satisfactory performance, achieving coefficients of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) efficiencies in the ranges of 0.62–0.79 and 0.61–0.76 for calibration and 0.48–0.90 and 0.41–0.84 for validation, respectively. The results indicate a substantial expansion of agricultural and pasture areas, with a 280% increase over recent decades. Climate projections under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios show a progressive temperature rise and declining rainfall trends, with the SSP5–8.5 scenario exhibiting a steeper increase in temperature. Paradoxically, hydrological modelling suggests an intensification of streamflow extremes, with peak discharges ranging from 200 to 300 m3/s, particularly, in regions prone to extreme precipitation events. Notably, under SSP5–8.5, a more pronounced rise in flood peaks is observed, indicating elevated flood risks, even in moderate emissions scenarios. These findings underscore the necessity for adaptive water resource management strategies to mitigate future hydrological vulnerabilities in the basin.
published_date 2025-11-13T05:32:40Z
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