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Educational Pathways and Outcomes for Care-Experienced Children: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study

Emily Lowthian Orcid Logo, Stuart Bedston, Olivia Deavall, Lucy Griffiths, Alexandra Lee, Ashley Akbari Orcid Logo, Gemma Hammerton, Jon Heron, Tom Crick Orcid Logo, Donald Forrester

British Educational Research Journal

Swansea University Authors: Emily Lowthian Orcid Logo, Stuart Bedston, Lucy Griffiths, Alexandra Lee, Ashley Akbari Orcid Logo, Tom Crick Orcid Logo

Abstract

Children who are removed from their birth families during childhood – termed care-experienced – can be at risk for lower educational attainment and poorer school experiences, often linked to deprivation and behavioural factors. However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the comple...

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Published in: British Educational Research Journal
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa71607
first_indexed 2026-03-10T19:45:54Z
last_indexed 2026-03-11T05:35:12Z
id cronfa71607
recordtype SURis
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However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexities of care (e.g. timing, and placements) and evidence is needed to understand the factors that could explain the link between care-experience and attainment.We used anonymised, individual-level, population-scale linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, covering children born in Wales between 2000&#x2013;2003. Children were followed to their examinations at age 10/11 and 15/16 to assess attainment. To capture the complexity of care-experiences, we conducted latent class analysis to identify distinct care profiles. Using a three-step approach, we estimated the association between these profiles and attainment at age 10/11. To explore the pathways to attainment, we applied causal mediation analysis to assess how school-related factors&#x2014;school moves, free school meals, and suspension or exclusion&#x2014;mediated the relationship between the care profiles and their attainment at age 15/16.We identified seven care-experience profiles. Children who were adopted had the highest attainment, while those entering foster care later had the lowest. School-related factors explained some of the lower attainment among children with short, early care who returned home.These findings highlight the complexity of care-experiences and their association with attainment. 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spelling 2026-03-10T19:45:52.6880571 v2 71607 2026-03-10 Educational Pathways and Outcomes for Care-Experienced Children: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study db5bc529b8a9dfca2b4a268d14e03479 0000-0001-9362-0046 Emily Lowthian Emily Lowthian true false c79d07eaba5c9515c0df82b372b76a41 Stuart Bedston Stuart Bedston true false d19770aa25d67560d59552cd2e8aa67b Lucy Griffiths Lucy Griffiths true false 7c6dc217555b0fea264ff0dd7d0aa374 Alexandra Lee Alexandra Lee true false aa1b025ec0243f708bb5eb0a93d6fb52 0000-0003-0814-0801 Ashley Akbari Ashley Akbari true false 200c66ef0fc55391f736f6e926fb4b99 0000-0001-5196-9389 Tom Crick Tom Crick true false 2026-03-10 SOSS Children who are removed from their birth families during childhood – termed care-experienced – can be at risk for lower educational attainment and poorer school experiences, often linked to deprivation and behavioural factors. However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexities of care (e.g. timing, and placements) and evidence is needed to understand the factors that could explain the link between care-experience and attainment.We used anonymised, individual-level, population-scale linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, covering children born in Wales between 2000–2003. Children were followed to their examinations at age 10/11 and 15/16 to assess attainment. To capture the complexity of care-experiences, we conducted latent class analysis to identify distinct care profiles. Using a three-step approach, we estimated the association between these profiles and attainment at age 10/11. To explore the pathways to attainment, we applied causal mediation analysis to assess how school-related factors—school moves, free school meals, and suspension or exclusion—mediated the relationship between the care profiles and their attainment at age 15/16.We identified seven care-experience profiles. Children who were adopted had the highest attainment, while those entering foster care later had the lowest. School-related factors explained some of the lower attainment among children with short, early care who returned home.These findings highlight the complexity of care-experiences and their association with attainment. We advocate for improved support in Wales, including implementing the Virtual School Model and broader definitions to ensure inclusive support for children who may be hidden to schools. Journal Article British Educational Research Journal 0 0 0 0001-01-01 COLLEGE NANME Social Sciences School COLLEGE CODE SOSS Swansea University SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal) Health and Care Research Wales SCG-21-1861 2026-03-10T19:45:52.6880571 2026-03-10T19:42:02.8744131 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Social Sciences - Education and Childhood Studies Emily Lowthian 0000-0001-9362-0046 1 Stuart Bedston 2 Olivia Deavall 3 Lucy Griffiths 4 Alexandra Lee 5 Ashley Akbari 0000-0003-0814-0801 6 Gemma Hammerton 7 Jon Heron 8 Tom Crick 0000-0001-5196-9389 9 Donald Forrester 10
title Educational Pathways and Outcomes for Care-Experienced Children: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study
spellingShingle Educational Pathways and Outcomes for Care-Experienced Children: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study
Emily Lowthian
Stuart Bedston
Lucy Griffiths
Alexandra Lee
Ashley Akbari
Tom Crick
title_short Educational Pathways and Outcomes for Care-Experienced Children: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study
title_full Educational Pathways and Outcomes for Care-Experienced Children: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study
title_fullStr Educational Pathways and Outcomes for Care-Experienced Children: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study
title_full_unstemmed Educational Pathways and Outcomes for Care-Experienced Children: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study
title_sort Educational Pathways and Outcomes for Care-Experienced Children: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study
author_id_str_mv db5bc529b8a9dfca2b4a268d14e03479
c79d07eaba5c9515c0df82b372b76a41
d19770aa25d67560d59552cd2e8aa67b
7c6dc217555b0fea264ff0dd7d0aa374
aa1b025ec0243f708bb5eb0a93d6fb52
200c66ef0fc55391f736f6e926fb4b99
author_id_fullname_str_mv db5bc529b8a9dfca2b4a268d14e03479_***_Emily Lowthian
c79d07eaba5c9515c0df82b372b76a41_***_Stuart Bedston
d19770aa25d67560d59552cd2e8aa67b_***_Lucy Griffiths
7c6dc217555b0fea264ff0dd7d0aa374_***_Alexandra Lee
aa1b025ec0243f708bb5eb0a93d6fb52_***_Ashley Akbari
200c66ef0fc55391f736f6e926fb4b99_***_Tom Crick
author Emily Lowthian
Stuart Bedston
Lucy Griffiths
Alexandra Lee
Ashley Akbari
Tom Crick
author2 Emily Lowthian
Stuart Bedston
Olivia Deavall
Lucy Griffiths
Alexandra Lee
Ashley Akbari
Gemma Hammerton
Jon Heron
Tom Crick
Donald Forrester
format Journal article
container_title British Educational Research Journal
institution Swansea University
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Social Sciences - Education and Childhood Studies{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Social Sciences - Education and Childhood Studies
document_store_str 0
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description Children who are removed from their birth families during childhood – termed care-experienced – can be at risk for lower educational attainment and poorer school experiences, often linked to deprivation and behavioural factors. However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexities of care (e.g. timing, and placements) and evidence is needed to understand the factors that could explain the link between care-experience and attainment.We used anonymised, individual-level, population-scale linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, covering children born in Wales between 2000–2003. Children were followed to their examinations at age 10/11 and 15/16 to assess attainment. To capture the complexity of care-experiences, we conducted latent class analysis to identify distinct care profiles. Using a three-step approach, we estimated the association between these profiles and attainment at age 10/11. To explore the pathways to attainment, we applied causal mediation analysis to assess how school-related factors—school moves, free school meals, and suspension or exclusion—mediated the relationship between the care profiles and their attainment at age 15/16.We identified seven care-experience profiles. Children who were adopted had the highest attainment, while those entering foster care later had the lowest. School-related factors explained some of the lower attainment among children with short, early care who returned home.These findings highlight the complexity of care-experiences and their association with attainment. We advocate for improved support in Wales, including implementing the Virtual School Model and broader definitions to ensure inclusive support for children who may be hidden to schools.
published_date 0001-01-01T05:33:38Z
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