Journal article 1525 views
Statistical simulation of flood variables: incorporating short-term sequencing
Journal of Flood Risk Management, Volume: 1, Issue: 1, Pages: 3 - 10
Swansea University Author:
Yuzhi Cai
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DOI (Published version): 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2008.00002.x
Abstract
The pluvial and fluvial flooding in the United Kingdom over the summer of 2007arose as a result of anomalous climatic conditions that persisted for over a month.Gaining an understanding of the sequencing of storm events and representing theircharacteristics within flood risk analysis is therefore of...
| Published in: | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
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| ISSN: | 1753-318X |
| Published: |
2008
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| Online Access: |
Check full text
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| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa11979 |
| Abstract: |
The pluvial and fluvial flooding in the United Kingdom over the summer of 2007arose as a result of anomalous climatic conditions that persisted for over a month.Gaining an understanding of the sequencing of storm events and representing theircharacteristics within flood risk analysis is therefore of importance. This paperprovides a general method for simulating univariate time series data, with a givenmarginal extreme value distribution and required autocorrelation structure,together with a demonstration of the method with synthetic data. The method isthen extended to the multivariate case, where cross-variable correlations are alsorepresented. The multivariate method is shown to work well for a two-variablesimulation of wave heights and sea surges at Lerwick. This work was prompted byan engineering need for long time series data for use in continuous simulationstudies where gradual deterioration is a contributory factor to flood risk andpotential structural failure. |
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| Keywords: |
Autocorrelation; correlation structure;flood risk; marginal extremes; simulation; time series; waves; surges. |
| College: |
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences |
| Issue: |
1 |
| Start Page: |
3 |
| End Page: |
10 |