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Statistical simulation of flood variables: incorporating short-term sequencing / Y Cai, B Gouldby, P Hawkes, P Dunning, Yuzhi Cai

Journal of Flood Risk Management, Volume: 1, Issue: 1, Pages: 3 - 10

Swansea University Author: Yuzhi Cai

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Abstract

The pluvial and fluvial flooding in the United Kingdom over the summer of 2007arose as a result of anomalous climatic conditions that persisted for over a month.Gaining an understanding of the sequencing of storm events and representing theircharacteristics within flood risk analysis is therefore of...

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Published in: Journal of Flood Risk Management
ISSN: 1753-318X
Published: 2008
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa11979
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Abstract: The pluvial and fluvial flooding in the United Kingdom over the summer of 2007arose as a result of anomalous climatic conditions that persisted for over a month.Gaining an understanding of the sequencing of storm events and representing theircharacteristics within flood risk analysis is therefore of importance. This paperprovides a general method for simulating univariate time series data, with a givenmarginal extreme value distribution and required autocorrelation structure,together with a demonstration of the method with synthetic data. The method isthen extended to the multivariate case, where cross-variable correlations are alsorepresented. The multivariate method is shown to work well for a two-variablesimulation of wave heights and sea surges at Lerwick. This work was prompted byan engineering need for long time series data for use in continuous simulationstudies where gradual deterioration is a contributory factor to flood risk andpotential structural failure.
Keywords: Autocorrelation; correlation structure;flood risk; marginal extremes; simulation; time series; waves; surges.
College: School of Management
Issue: 1
Start Page: 3
End Page: 10