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European summer temperatures since Roman times / J Luterbacher, J P Werner, J E Smerdon, L Fernández-Donado, F J González-Rouco, D Barriopedro, F C Ljungqvist, U Büntgen, E Zorita, S Wagner, J Esper, Danny McCarroll, A Toreti, D Frank, J H Jungclaus, M Barriendos, C Bertolin, O Bothe, R Brázdil, D Camuffo, P Dobrovolný, Mary Gagen, E García-Bustamante, Q Ge, J J Gómez-Navarro, J Guiot, Z Hao, G C Hegerl, K Holmgren, V V Klimenko, J Martín-Chivelet, C Pfister, N Roberts, A Schindler, A Schurer, O Solomina, L von Gunten, E Wahl, H Wanner, O Wetter, E Xoplaki, N Yuan, D Zanchettin, H Zhang, C Zerefos
Environmental Research Letters, Volume: 11, Issue: 2, Start page: 024001
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The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new recons...
|Published in:||Environmental Research Letters|
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The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. We provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer temperature fields back to 755 CE based on a Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on Composite-plus-Scaling. Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and Little Ice Age are larger in reconstructions than simulations. This may indicate either inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity to external forcing on sub-hemispheric scales in the climate models and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales including the representation of internal feedback mechanisms.
College of Science