European summer temperatures since Roman times

Luterbacher, J; Werner, J P; Smerdon, J E; Fernández-Donado, L; González-Rouco, F J; Barriopedro, D; Ljungqvist, F C; Büntgen, U; Zorita, E; Wagner, S; Esper, J; McCarroll, Danny; Toreti, A; Frank, D; Jungclaus, J H; Barriendos, M; Bertolin, C; Bothe, O; Brázdil, R; Camuffo, D; Dobrovolný, P; Gagen, Mary; García-Bustamante, E; Ge, Q; Gómez-Navarro, J J; Guiot, J; Hao, Z; Hegerl, G C; Holmgren, K; Klimenko, V V; Martín-Chivelet, J; Pfister, C; Roberts, N; Schindler, A; Schurer, A; Solomina, O; Gunten, L von; Wahl, E; Wanner, H; Wetter, O; Xoplaki, E; Yuan, N; Zanchettin, D; Zhang, H; Zerefos, C

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001

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European summer temperatures since Roman times

J Luterbacher, J P Werner, J E Smerdon, L Fernández-Donado, F J González-Rouco, D Barriopedro, F C Ljungqvist, U Büntgen, E Zorita, S Wagner, J Esper, Danny McCarroll, A Toreti, D Frank, J H Jungclaus, M Barriendos, C Bertolin, O Bothe, R Brázdil, D Camuffo, P Dobrovolný, Mary Gagen

, E García-Bustamante, Q Ge, J J Gómez-Navarro, J Guiot, Z Hao, G C Hegerl, K Holmgren, V V Klimenko, J Martín-Chivelet, C Pfister, N Roberts, A Schindler, A Schurer, O Solomina, L von Gunten, E Wahl, H Wanner, O Wetter, E Xoplaki, N Yuan, D Zanchettin, H Zhang, C Zerefos

Environmental Research Letters, Volume: 11, Issue: 2, Start page: 024001

Swansea University Authors: Danny McCarroll, Mary Gagen

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DOI (Published version): 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001

Abstract

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new recons...

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Published in:	Environmental Research Letters
ISSN:	1748-9326
Published:	IOP Publishing 2016
Online Access:	Check full text
URI:	https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa26423
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spelling	2020-12-16T16:42:32.2756154 v2 26423 2016-02-18 European summer temperatures since Roman times 6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960 Danny McCarroll Danny McCarroll true false e677a6d0777aed90ac1eca8937e43d2b 0000-0002-6820-6457 Mary Gagen Mary Gagen true false 2016-02-18 FGSEN The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. We provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer temperature fields back to 755 CE based on a Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on Composite-plus-Scaling. Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and Little Ice Age are larger in reconstructions than simulations. This may indicate either inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity to external forcing on sub-hemispheric scales in the climate models and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales including the representation of internal feedback mechanisms. Journal Article Environmental Research Letters 11 2 024001 IOP Publishing 1748-9326 1 2 2016 2016-02-01 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001 COLLEGE NANME Science and Engineering - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGSEN Swansea University 2020-12-16T16:42:32.2756154 2016-02-18T12:25:46.0401165 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography J Luterbacher 1 J P Werner 2 J E Smerdon 3 L Fernández-Donado 4 F J González-Rouco 5 D Barriopedro 6 F C Ljungqvist 7 U Büntgen 8 E Zorita 9 S Wagner 10 J Esper 11 Danny McCarroll 12 A Toreti 13 D Frank 14 J H Jungclaus 15 M Barriendos 16 C Bertolin 17 O Bothe 18 R Brázdil 19 D Camuffo 20 P Dobrovolný 21 Mary Gagen 0000-0002-6820-6457 22 E García-Bustamante 23 Q Ge 24 J J Gómez-Navarro 25 J Guiot 26 Z Hao 27 G C Hegerl 28 K Holmgren 29 V V Klimenko 30 J Martín-Chivelet 31 C Pfister 32 N Roberts 33 A Schindler 34 A Schurer 35 O Solomina 36 L von Gunten 37 E Wahl 38 H Wanner 39 O Wetter 40 E Xoplaki 41 N Yuan 42 D Zanchettin 43 H Zhang 44 C Zerefos 45 26423__18671__c9f397d8505742189de4f4f3e0385c44.pdf 26423.pdf 2020-11-16T16:13:37.0327528 Output 2604445 application/pdf Version of Record true Released under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0
title	European summer temperatures since Roman times
spellingShingle	European summer temperatures since Roman times Danny McCarroll Mary Gagen
title_short	European summer temperatures since Roman times
title_full	European summer temperatures since Roman times
title_fullStr	European summer temperatures since Roman times
title_full_unstemmed	European summer temperatures since Roman times
title_sort	European summer temperatures since Roman times
author_id_str_mv	6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960 e677a6d0777aed90ac1eca8937e43d2b
author_id_fullname_str_mv	6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960_*_Danny McCarroll e677a6d0777aed90ac1eca8937e43d2b_*_Mary Gagen
author	Danny McCarroll Mary Gagen
author2	J Luterbacher J P Werner J E Smerdon L Fernández-Donado F J González-Rouco D Barriopedro F C Ljungqvist U Büntgen E Zorita S Wagner J Esper Danny McCarroll A Toreti D Frank J H Jungclaus M Barriendos C Bertolin O Bothe R Brázdil D Camuffo P Dobrovolný Mary Gagen E García-Bustamante Q Ge J J Gómez-Navarro J Guiot Z Hao G C Hegerl K Holmgren V V Klimenko J Martín-Chivelet C Pfister N Roberts A Schindler A Schurer O Solomina L von Gunten E Wahl H Wanner O Wetter E Xoplaki N Yuan D Zanchettin H Zhang C Zerefos
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description	The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. We provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer temperature fields back to 755 CE based on a Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on Composite-plus-Scaling. Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and Little Ice Age are larger in reconstructions than simulations. This may indicate either inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity to external forcing on sub-hemispheric scales in the climate models and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales including the representation of internal feedback mechanisms.
published_date	2016-02-01T03:31:42Z
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European summer temperatures since Roman times

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