Journal article 1427 views 292 downloads
Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers
Mathematical Biosciences, Volume: 274, Pages: 45 - 57
Swansea University Authors:
Igor Sazonov , Michael Gravenor
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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.mbs.2016.01.011
Abstract
We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of...
Published in: | Mathematical Biosciences |
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Published: |
2016
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Online Access: |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556416000225 |
URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa26751 |
Abstract: |
We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. |
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Keywords: |
Epidemic modeling; Population dynamics; Markov chains; Stochastic processes; Network interactions |
College: |
Faculty of Science and Engineering |
Start Page: |
45 |
End Page: |
57 |