Journal article 1167 views 262 downloads
Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers
Mathematical Biosciences, Volume: 274, Pages: 45 - 57
Swansea University Authors: Igor Sazonov , Michael Gravenor
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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.mbs.2016.01.011
Abstract
We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of...
Published in: | Mathematical Biosciences |
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2016
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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556416000225 |
URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa26751 |
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2018-01-19T18:30:45.3912929 v2 26751 2016-03-14 Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers 05a507952e26462561085fb6f62c8897 0000-0001-6685-2351 Igor Sazonov Igor Sazonov true false 70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6 0000-0003-0710-0947 Michael Gravenor Michael Gravenor true false 2016-03-14 AERO We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. Journal Article Mathematical Biosciences 274 45 57 Epidemic modeling; Population dynamics; Markov chains; Stochastic processes; Network interactions 30 4 2016 2016-04-30 10.1016/j.mbs.2016.01.011 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556416000225 COLLEGE NANME Aerospace Engineering COLLEGE CODE AERO Swansea University 2018-01-19T18:30:45.3912929 2016-03-14T17:13:29.5830444 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Aerospace Engineering Igor Sazonov 0000-0001-6685-2351 1 Mark Kelbert 2 Michael Gravenor 0000-0003-0710-0947 3 0026751-14032016171429.pdf SazonovRandomMigrationProcesses2016AM.pdf 2016-03-14T17:14:29.4730000 Output 818429 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2017-02-11T00:00:00.0000000 true |
title |
Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers |
spellingShingle |
Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers Igor Sazonov Michael Gravenor |
title_short |
Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers |
title_full |
Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers |
title_fullStr |
Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers |
title_full_unstemmed |
Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers |
title_sort |
Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers |
author_id_str_mv |
05a507952e26462561085fb6f62c8897 70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6 |
author_id_fullname_str_mv |
05a507952e26462561085fb6f62c8897_***_Igor Sazonov 70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6_***_Michael Gravenor |
author |
Igor Sazonov Michael Gravenor |
author2 |
Igor Sazonov Mark Kelbert Michael Gravenor |
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Journal article |
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Mathematical Biosciences |
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274 |
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45 |
publishDate |
2016 |
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Swansea University |
doi_str_mv |
10.1016/j.mbs.2016.01.011 |
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Faculty of Science and Engineering |
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Faculty of Science and Engineering |
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Faculty of Science and Engineering |
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School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Aerospace Engineering{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Aerospace Engineering |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556416000225 |
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description |
We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. |
published_date |
2016-04-30T03:32:12Z |
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1763751317726035968 |
score |
11.016235 |