Journal article 1360 views 829 downloads
Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union
Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, Volume: 22, Issue: 3, Pages: 330 - 334
Swansea University Authors:
Neil Bezodis , Liam Kilduff
-
PDF | Accepted Manuscript
Download (378.41KB)
DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.jsams.2018.08.008
Abstract
ObjectivesThe primary aim of this study was to examine whether accuracy of rugby union match prediction outcomes differed dependent on the method of data analysis (i.e., isolated vs. descriptively converted or relative data). A secondary aim was to then use the most appropriate method to investigate...
Published in: | Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport |
---|---|
ISSN: | 1440-2440 |
Published: |
2019
|
Online Access: |
Check full text
|
URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa43255 |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
first_indexed |
2018-08-13T18:15:56Z |
---|---|
last_indexed |
2020-07-08T19:04:16Z |
id |
cronfa43255 |
recordtype |
SURis |
fullrecord |
<?xml version="1.0"?><rfc1807><datestamp>2020-07-08T15:00:52.1401409</datestamp><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>43255</id><entry>2018-08-13</entry><title>Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>534588568c1936e94e1ed8527b8c991b</sid><ORCID>0000-0003-2229-3310</ORCID><firstname>Neil</firstname><surname>Bezodis</surname><name>Neil Bezodis</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author><author><sid>972ed9a1dda7a0de20581a0f8350be98</sid><ORCID>0000-0001-9449-2293</ORCID><firstname>Liam</firstname><surname>Kilduff</surname><name>Liam Kilduff</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2018-08-13</date><deptcode>STSC</deptcode><abstract>ObjectivesThe primary aim of this study was to examine whether accuracy of rugby union match prediction outcomes differed dependent on the method of data analysis (i.e., isolated vs. descriptively converted or relative data). A secondary aim was to then use the most appropriate method to investigate the performance indicators (PI’s) most relevant to match outcome.MethodsData was 16 PI’s from 127 matches across the 2016–17 English Premiership rugby season. Given the binary outcome (win/lose), a random forest classification model was built using these data sets. Predictive ability of the models was further assessed by predicting outcomes from data sets of 72 matches across the 2017–18 season.ResultsThe relative data model attained a balanced prediction rate of 80% (95% CI – 75–85%) for 2016–17 data, whereas the isolated data model only achieved 64% (95% CI – 58–70%). In addition, the relative data model correctly predicted 76% (95% CI – 68–84%) of the 2017–18 data, compared with 70% (95% CI – 63–77%) for the isolated data model. From the relative data model, 10 PI’s had significant relationships with game outcome; kicks from hand, clean breaks, average carry distance, penalties conceded when the opposition have the ball, turnovers conceded, total metres carried, defenders beaten, ratio of tackles missed to tackles made, total missed tackles, and turnovers won.ConclusionsOutcomes of Premiership rugby matches are better predicted when relative data sets are utilised. Basic open-field abilities based around an effective kicking game, ball carrying abilities, and not conceding penalties when the opposition are in possession are the most relevant predictors of success.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport</journal><volume>22</volume><journalNumber>3</journalNumber><paginationStart>330</paginationStart><paginationEnd>334</paginationEnd><publisher/><issnPrint>1440-2440</issnPrint><keywords>Team sport, Random forest, Performance indicators, Partial dependence plots</keywords><publishedDay>31</publishedDay><publishedMonth>3</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2019</publishedYear><publishedDate>2019-03-31</publishedDate><doi>10.1016/j.jsams.2018.08.008</doi><url/><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Sport and Exercise Sciences</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>STSC</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><lastEdited>2020-07-08T15:00:52.1401409</lastEdited><Created>2018-08-13T09:06:03.5123652</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Science and Engineering</level><level id="2">School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Sport and Exercise Sciences</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Mark</firstname><surname>Bennett</surname><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Neil</firstname><surname>Bezodis</surname><orcid>0000-0003-2229-3310</orcid><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>David A.</firstname><surname>Shearer</surname><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>Duncan</firstname><surname>Locke</surname><order>4</order></author><author><firstname>Liam</firstname><surname>Kilduff</surname><orcid>0000-0001-9449-2293</orcid><order>5</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>0043255-13082018090746.pdf</filename><originalFilename>kilduff2018(2).pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2018-08-13T09:07:46.8500000</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>355227</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Accepted Manuscript</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><embargoDate>2019-08-18T00:00:00.0000000</embargoDate><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>eng</language></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807> |
spelling |
2020-07-08T15:00:52.1401409 v2 43255 2018-08-13 Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union 534588568c1936e94e1ed8527b8c991b 0000-0003-2229-3310 Neil Bezodis Neil Bezodis true false 972ed9a1dda7a0de20581a0f8350be98 0000-0001-9449-2293 Liam Kilduff Liam Kilduff true false 2018-08-13 STSC ObjectivesThe primary aim of this study was to examine whether accuracy of rugby union match prediction outcomes differed dependent on the method of data analysis (i.e., isolated vs. descriptively converted or relative data). A secondary aim was to then use the most appropriate method to investigate the performance indicators (PI’s) most relevant to match outcome.MethodsData was 16 PI’s from 127 matches across the 2016–17 English Premiership rugby season. Given the binary outcome (win/lose), a random forest classification model was built using these data sets. Predictive ability of the models was further assessed by predicting outcomes from data sets of 72 matches across the 2017–18 season.ResultsThe relative data model attained a balanced prediction rate of 80% (95% CI – 75–85%) for 2016–17 data, whereas the isolated data model only achieved 64% (95% CI – 58–70%). In addition, the relative data model correctly predicted 76% (95% CI – 68–84%) of the 2017–18 data, compared with 70% (95% CI – 63–77%) for the isolated data model. From the relative data model, 10 PI’s had significant relationships with game outcome; kicks from hand, clean breaks, average carry distance, penalties conceded when the opposition have the ball, turnovers conceded, total metres carried, defenders beaten, ratio of tackles missed to tackles made, total missed tackles, and turnovers won.ConclusionsOutcomes of Premiership rugby matches are better predicted when relative data sets are utilised. Basic open-field abilities based around an effective kicking game, ball carrying abilities, and not conceding penalties when the opposition are in possession are the most relevant predictors of success. Journal Article Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport 22 3 330 334 1440-2440 Team sport, Random forest, Performance indicators, Partial dependence plots 31 3 2019 2019-03-31 10.1016/j.jsams.2018.08.008 COLLEGE NANME Sport and Exercise Sciences COLLEGE CODE STSC Swansea University 2020-07-08T15:00:52.1401409 2018-08-13T09:06:03.5123652 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Sport and Exercise Sciences Mark Bennett 1 Neil Bezodis 0000-0003-2229-3310 2 David A. Shearer 3 Duncan Locke 4 Liam Kilduff 0000-0001-9449-2293 5 0043255-13082018090746.pdf kilduff2018(2).pdf 2018-08-13T09:07:46.8500000 Output 355227 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2019-08-18T00:00:00.0000000 true eng |
title |
Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union |
spellingShingle |
Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union Neil Bezodis Liam Kilduff |
title_short |
Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union |
title_full |
Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union |
title_fullStr |
Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union |
title_full_unstemmed |
Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union |
title_sort |
Descriptive conversion of performance indicators in rugby union |
author_id_str_mv |
534588568c1936e94e1ed8527b8c991b 972ed9a1dda7a0de20581a0f8350be98 |
author_id_fullname_str_mv |
534588568c1936e94e1ed8527b8c991b_***_Neil Bezodis 972ed9a1dda7a0de20581a0f8350be98_***_Liam Kilduff |
author |
Neil Bezodis Liam Kilduff |
author2 |
Mark Bennett Neil Bezodis David A. Shearer Duncan Locke Liam Kilduff |
format |
Journal article |
container_title |
Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
330 |
publishDate |
2019 |
institution |
Swansea University |
issn |
1440-2440 |
doi_str_mv |
10.1016/j.jsams.2018.08.008 |
college_str |
Faculty of Science and Engineering |
hierarchytype |
|
hierarchy_top_id |
facultyofscienceandengineering |
hierarchy_top_title |
Faculty of Science and Engineering |
hierarchy_parent_id |
facultyofscienceandengineering |
hierarchy_parent_title |
Faculty of Science and Engineering |
department_str |
School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Sport and Exercise Sciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Sport and Exercise Sciences |
document_store_str |
1 |
active_str |
0 |
description |
ObjectivesThe primary aim of this study was to examine whether accuracy of rugby union match prediction outcomes differed dependent on the method of data analysis (i.e., isolated vs. descriptively converted or relative data). A secondary aim was to then use the most appropriate method to investigate the performance indicators (PI’s) most relevant to match outcome.MethodsData was 16 PI’s from 127 matches across the 2016–17 English Premiership rugby season. Given the binary outcome (win/lose), a random forest classification model was built using these data sets. Predictive ability of the models was further assessed by predicting outcomes from data sets of 72 matches across the 2017–18 season.ResultsThe relative data model attained a balanced prediction rate of 80% (95% CI – 75–85%) for 2016–17 data, whereas the isolated data model only achieved 64% (95% CI – 58–70%). In addition, the relative data model correctly predicted 76% (95% CI – 68–84%) of the 2017–18 data, compared with 70% (95% CI – 63–77%) for the isolated data model. From the relative data model, 10 PI’s had significant relationships with game outcome; kicks from hand, clean breaks, average carry distance, penalties conceded when the opposition have the ball, turnovers conceded, total metres carried, defenders beaten, ratio of tackles missed to tackles made, total missed tackles, and turnovers won.ConclusionsOutcomes of Premiership rugby matches are better predicted when relative data sets are utilised. Basic open-field abilities based around an effective kicking game, ball carrying abilities, and not conceding penalties when the opposition are in possession are the most relevant predictors of success. |
published_date |
2019-03-31T03:54:31Z |
_version_ |
1763752722213896192 |
score |
11.021648 |