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Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices

Hany Abdel-Latif, Mahmoud El-Gamal, Hany Mohamed

Energy Economics, Volume: 87, Start page: 104482

Swansea University Author: Hany Mohamed

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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104482

Abstract

This paper aims simultaneously to study the global dynamic relationship of oil prices, financial liquidity, and geopolitical risk, on the one hand, and the economic performance of oil-exports-dependent economies on the other. Global and country-specific dynamics are studied together in a Global Vect...

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Published in: Energy Economics
ISSN: 01409883
Published: Elsevier 2019
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa51339
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first_indexed 2019-08-09T16:32:05Z
last_indexed 2021-01-26T04:13:01Z
id cronfa51339
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spelling 2021-01-25T15:30:38.9698772 v2 51339 2019-08-07 Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices 2930976ccf31ef0c71f78f7cb47e2d5d Hany Mohamed Hany Mohamed true false 2019-08-07 This paper aims simultaneously to study the global dynamic relationship of oil prices, financial liquidity, and geopolitical risk, on the one hand, and the economic performance of oil-exports-dependent economies on the other. Global and country-specific dynamics are studied together in a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model that allows different lag structures for different variables in different countries. Global impulse response functions from the estimated model suggest that new waves of high oil prices are unlikely, despite the likely continuation of high global financial liquidity and heightened geopolitical risk, which had driven earlier episodes of very high oil prices. With oil remaining at modest to low prices by recent historical standards, we study the prospects for economic growth in oil-export-dependent economies through dramatic increases in domestic investment, as planned under Visions 2030 of some Arab countries, and conclude that, unfortunately, success is unlikely. Journal Article Energy Economics 87 104482 Elsevier 01409883 Geopolitics, Global Liquidity, Oil Prices, MENA Region, Arab Spring, Global VAR 31 12 2019 2019-12-31 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104482 COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University 2021-01-25T15:30:38.9698772 2019-08-07T10:52:26.1973735 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Management - Business Management Hany Abdel-Latif 1 Mahmoud El-Gamal 2 Hany Mohamed 3 0051339-07082019105514.pdf Abdel-LatifEl-Gamal2019Financial.pdf 2019-08-07T10:55:14.3430000 Output 7953878 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2021-02-13T00:00:00.0000000 Released under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License (CC-BY-NC-ND). true eng
title Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices
spellingShingle Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices
Hany Mohamed
title_short Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices
title_full Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices
title_fullStr Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices
title_full_unstemmed Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices
title_sort Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices
author_id_str_mv 2930976ccf31ef0c71f78f7cb47e2d5d
author_id_fullname_str_mv 2930976ccf31ef0c71f78f7cb47e2d5d_***_Hany Mohamed
author Hany Mohamed
author2 Hany Abdel-Latif
Mahmoud El-Gamal
Hany Mohamed
format Journal article
container_title Energy Economics
container_volume 87
container_start_page 104482
publishDate 2019
institution Swansea University
issn 01409883
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104482
publisher Elsevier
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Management - Business Management{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Management - Business Management
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description This paper aims simultaneously to study the global dynamic relationship of oil prices, financial liquidity, and geopolitical risk, on the one hand, and the economic performance of oil-exports-dependent economies on the other. Global and country-specific dynamics are studied together in a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model that allows different lag structures for different variables in different countries. Global impulse response functions from the estimated model suggest that new waves of high oil prices are unlikely, despite the likely continuation of high global financial liquidity and heightened geopolitical risk, which had driven earlier episodes of very high oil prices. With oil remaining at modest to low prices by recent historical standards, we study the prospects for economic growth in oil-export-dependent economies through dramatic increases in domestic investment, as planned under Visions 2030 of some Arab countries, and conclude that, unfortunately, success is unlikely.
published_date 2019-12-31T04:03:11Z
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score 10.999547

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