Journal article 718 views 284 downloads
Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup
,
David Shearer,
Liam Kilduff ,
David Andrew Shearer
European Journal of Sport Science, Volume: 21, Issue: 3, Pages: 312 - 320
Swansea University Authors:
Mark Bennett, Neil Bezodis , David Shearer, Liam Kilduff , David Andrew Shearer
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DOI (Published version): 10.1080/17461391.2020.1743764
Abstract
The primary aim of this paper was to produce a model that predicts outcome in the group-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup and to determine the relevance and importance of performance indicators (PIs) that are significant in predicting outcome. A secondary aim investigated whether this model accurate...
| Published in: | European Journal of Sport Science |
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| ISSN: | 1746-1391 1536-7290 |
| Published: |
Informa UK Limited
2021
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| Online Access: |
Check full text
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| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa53805 |
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| Abstract: |
The primary aim of this paper was to produce a model that predicts outcome in the group-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup and to determine the relevance and importance of performance indicators (PIs) that are significant in predicting outcome. A secondary aim investigated whether this model accurately predicted match outcome in the knockout-phase of the competition. Data was the PIs from the 40 group-phase games of the 2015 RWC. Given the binary outcome (win/lose), a random forest classification model was built using the data sets. The outcome of the knockout-phase was predicted using this model and accuracy of prediction of the model from the group-phase. The model indicated that thirteen PIs were significant in predicting match outcome in the group-phase and provided accurate prediction of match outcome in the knockout-phase. These PIs were tackle-ratio, clean breaks, average carry, lineouts won, penalties conceded, missed tackles, lineouts won in the opposition 22, defenders beaten, metres carried, kicks from hand, lineout success, penalties in opposition 22 m and scrums won. For the group-phase matches tackle ratio, clean breaks and average carry were accurate standalone predictors of match outcome and respectively predicted 75%, 70% and 73% of match outcomes. The model based on the group-phase predicted correctly 7 from 8 (87.5%) knockout-phase matches. In the knockout-phase clean breaks predicted 7 from 8 outcomes, whilst tackle ratio and average carry predicted 6 from 8 outcomes. |
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| Keywords: |
Rugby World Cup, random forest, performance indicators, LIME |
| College: |
Faculty of Science and Engineering |
| Issue: |
3 |
| Start Page: |
312 |
| End Page: |
320 |