E-Thesis 757 views
Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory / EVAN KERRANE
Swansea University Author: EVAN KERRANE
DOI (Published version): 10.23889/SUthesis.57736
Abstract
A debate between liberal and realist international relations theories centres on the influence oftrade interdependence on state action. While liberal theorists tend to see interdependence as onlya mechanism for peace, realists view trade dependency as a potential for state vulnerability. DaleCopelan...
| Published: |
Swansea
2021
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| Institution: | Swansea University |
| Degree level: | Doctoral |
| Degree name: | Ph.D |
| Supervisor: | Collins, Alan; Furmanski, Louis |
| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa57736 |
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| Abstract: |
A debate between liberal and realist international relations theories centres on the influence oftrade interdependence on state action. While liberal theorists tend to see interdependence as onlya mechanism for peace, realists view trade dependency as a potential for state vulnerability. DaleCopeland’s trade expectations theory offers a bridge to this divide by arguing perception offuture trade accounts for whether states perceive trade as a vulnerability or mechanism forcooperation. Copeland’s novel theory argues when states possess a positive expectation of futuretrade, they will continue to pursue trading relationships, as argued in liberal theory. However,once these expectations turn negative, states may face a trade-security crisis stemming from thetrade vulnerabilities.This thesis applies Copeland’s theory the Russian experience leading up to the 2013 – 2014Ukraine Crisis. The application of the theory addresses two key criticisms of trade expectationstheory: first, the question of what constitutes “reasonableness” within the expectations of trade,and second, grounding the theory within the broader international relations literature. Copeland’sreliance on a “reasonable man” test of trade expectations lacks a nuanced understanding of whata reasonable perception of a state is. Through the addition of militarism as a state bias and belief,this thesis shows the theory’s logic developing within a defensive realist framework. The thesisapplies the case study to a two-level security dilemma, grounding the theory’s core contribution,the trade-security dilemma, within defensive realism. Placing Copeland’s theory within thisframework reveals trade expectations to be an intervening variable within a balance of powercompetition. Finally, the application of trade expectations theory to Russia and the UkraineCrisis gives greater depth in understanding Moscow’s dilemma. Framing a trade-securitydilemma within the broader balance of power dynamic exposes the Russian trade crisis whichoccurred as Kyiv shifted towards the West. |
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| Item Description: |
Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory © 2021 by Evan M. Kerrane is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 |
| Keywords: |
Trade expectations, realism, security dilemma, Russia, Ukraine, Putin, militarism, trade,military industry |
| College: |
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences |