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Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory / EVAN KERRANE

Swansea University Author: EVAN KERRANE

  • E-Thesis – open access under embargo until: 24th August 2026

DOI (Published version): 10.23889/SUthesis.57736

Abstract

A debate between liberal and realist international relations theories centres on the influence oftrade interdependence on state action. While liberal theorists tend to see interdependence as onlya mechanism for peace, realists view trade dependency as a potential for state vulnerability. DaleCopelan...

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Published: Swansea 2021
Institution: Swansea University
Degree level: Doctoral
Degree name: Ph.D
Supervisor: Collins, Alan; Furmanski, Louis
URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa57736
first_indexed 2021-08-31T12:03:23Z
last_indexed 2021-09-03T03:22:00Z
id cronfa57736
recordtype RisThesis
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spelling 2021-09-02T15:22:27.0386653 v2 57736 2021-08-31 Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory ed478f3fc8bb83eb5656e0d1d767a8a5 EVAN KERRANE EVAN KERRANE true false 2021-08-31 A debate between liberal and realist international relations theories centres on the influence oftrade interdependence on state action. While liberal theorists tend to see interdependence as onlya mechanism for peace, realists view trade dependency as a potential for state vulnerability. DaleCopeland’s trade expectations theory offers a bridge to this divide by arguing perception offuture trade accounts for whether states perceive trade as a vulnerability or mechanism forcooperation. Copeland’s novel theory argues when states possess a positive expectation of futuretrade, they will continue to pursue trading relationships, as argued in liberal theory. However,once these expectations turn negative, states may face a trade-security crisis stemming from thetrade vulnerabilities.This thesis applies Copeland’s theory the Russian experience leading up to the 2013 – 2014Ukraine Crisis. The application of the theory addresses two key criticisms of trade expectationstheory: first, the question of what constitutes “reasonableness” within the expectations of trade,and second, grounding the theory within the broader international relations literature. Copeland’sreliance on a “reasonable man” test of trade expectations lacks a nuanced understanding of whata reasonable perception of a state is. Through the addition of militarism as a state bias and belief,this thesis shows the theory’s logic developing within a defensive realist framework. The thesisapplies the case study to a two-level security dilemma, grounding the theory’s core contribution,the trade-security dilemma, within defensive realism. Placing Copeland’s theory within thisframework reveals trade expectations to be an intervening variable within a balance of powercompetition. Finally, the application of trade expectations theory to Russia and the UkraineCrisis gives greater depth in understanding Moscow’s dilemma. Framing a trade-securitydilemma within the broader balance of power dynamic exposes the Russian trade crisis whichoccurred as Kyiv shifted towards the West. E-Thesis Swansea Trade expectations, realism, security dilemma, Russia, Ukraine, Putin, militarism, trade,military industry 31 8 2021 2021-08-31 10.23889/SUthesis.57736 Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory © 2021 by Evan M. Kerrane is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University Collins, Alan; Furmanski, Louis Doctoral Ph.D 2021-09-02T15:22:27.0386653 2021-08-31T12:52:42.0500307 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Culture and Communication - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations EVAN KERRANE 1 Under embargo Under embargo 2021-09-02T15:18:24.3831830 Output 5833196 application/pdf E-Thesis – open access true 2026-08-24T00:00:00.0000000 Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory © 2021 by Evan M. Kerrane is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
title Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory
spellingShingle Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory
EVAN KERRANE
title_short Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory
title_full Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory
title_fullStr Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory
title_full_unstemmed Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory
title_sort Russia and the Ukraine Crisis: An Analysis of Trade Expectations Theory
author_id_str_mv ed478f3fc8bb83eb5656e0d1d767a8a5
author_id_fullname_str_mv ed478f3fc8bb83eb5656e0d1d767a8a5_***_EVAN KERRANE
author EVAN KERRANE
author2 EVAN KERRANE
format E-Thesis
publishDate 2021
institution Swansea University
doi_str_mv 10.23889/SUthesis.57736
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Culture and Communication - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Culture and Communication - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations
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description A debate between liberal and realist international relations theories centres on the influence oftrade interdependence on state action. While liberal theorists tend to see interdependence as onlya mechanism for peace, realists view trade dependency as a potential for state vulnerability. DaleCopeland’s trade expectations theory offers a bridge to this divide by arguing perception offuture trade accounts for whether states perceive trade as a vulnerability or mechanism forcooperation. Copeland’s novel theory argues when states possess a positive expectation of futuretrade, they will continue to pursue trading relationships, as argued in liberal theory. However,once these expectations turn negative, states may face a trade-security crisis stemming from thetrade vulnerabilities.This thesis applies Copeland’s theory the Russian experience leading up to the 2013 – 2014Ukraine Crisis. The application of the theory addresses two key criticisms of trade expectationstheory: first, the question of what constitutes “reasonableness” within the expectations of trade,and second, grounding the theory within the broader international relations literature. Copeland’sreliance on a “reasonable man” test of trade expectations lacks a nuanced understanding of whata reasonable perception of a state is. Through the addition of militarism as a state bias and belief,this thesis shows the theory’s logic developing within a defensive realist framework. The thesisapplies the case study to a two-level security dilemma, grounding the theory’s core contribution,the trade-security dilemma, within defensive realism. Placing Copeland’s theory within thisframework reveals trade expectations to be an intervening variable within a balance of powercompetition. Finally, the application of trade expectations theory to Russia and the UkraineCrisis gives greater depth in understanding Moscow’s dilemma. Framing a trade-securitydilemma within the broader balance of power dynamic exposes the Russian trade crisis whichoccurred as Kyiv shifted towards the West.
published_date 2021-08-31T08:08:20Z
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score 11.048085

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