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Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati

Audrius Sabūnas, Takuya Miyashita, Nobuki Fukui, Tomoya Shimura, Nobuhito Mori

Frontiers in Built Environment, Volume: 7

Swansea University Author: Nobuhito Mori

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DOI (Published version): 10.3389/fbuil.2021.752599

Abstract

The Pacific region consists of numerous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), one of the most vulnerable to flooding caused by compound effects of sea level rise (SLR) and storms. Nevertheless, individual studies regarding the impact assessment for SIDS, such as the low-lying Kiribati, remain scarc...

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Published in: Frontiers in Built Environment
ISSN: 2297-3362
Published: Frontiers Media SA 2021
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa58892
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spelling 2021-12-31T13:01:23.5173084 v2 58892 2021-12-06 Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati 2cab1605807300324c85b4ec1a1a93c6 Nobuhito Mori Nobuhito Mori true false 2021-12-06 FGSEN The Pacific region consists of numerous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), one of the most vulnerable to flooding caused by compound effects of sea level rise (SLR) and storms. Nevertheless, individual studies regarding the impact assessment for SIDS, such as the low-lying Kiribati, remain scarce. This study assessed the impact of climate change-induced storm surge and SLR compounding effects on Tarawa, the most populous atoll of Kiribati, the largest coral atoll nation. It projected the impact using a combined dynamic surge and SLR model based on the IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios and 1/100 and 1/50 years return period storm events. This approach allows estimating the inundation scope and the consecutive exposed population by the end of the 21st century. The results of this study show that the pace of SLR is pivotal for Tarawa, as the sea level rise alone can claim more than 50% of the territory and pose a threat to over 60% of the population under the most intense greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Furthermore, most coasts on the lagoon side are particularly vulnerable. In contrast, the contribution of extreme events is generally minimal due to low wind speeds and the absence of tropical cyclones (TC). Despite this, it is clear the compound effects are critical and may inescapably bring drastic changes to the atoll nations by the end of this century. The impact assessment in this study draws attention to the social impact of climate change on SIDS, most notably atoll islands, and evaluates their adaptation potential. Journal Article Frontiers in Built Environment 7 Frontiers Media SA 2297-3362 Kiribati, sea level rise, population displacement, social impact of climate change, inundation, exposedpopulation, SIDS 10 11 2021 2021-11-10 10.3389/fbuil.2021.752599 COLLEGE NANME Science and Engineering - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGSEN Swansea University A part of this research is supported by the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) Grant Number JPMXD0717935498 by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), and the Climate Adaptation Program by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES). 2021-12-31T13:01:23.5173084 2021-12-06T10:35:58.7797003 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Uncategorised Audrius Sabūnas 1 Takuya Miyashita 2 Nobuki Fukui 3 Tomoya Shimura 4 Nobuhito Mori 5 58892__21794__ae3dc7288c1a4e7980bc5d742fb06242.pdf fbuil-07-752599.pdf 2021-12-06T10:35:58.7796516 Output 3805422 application/pdf Version of Record true This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
spellingShingle Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
Nobuhito Mori
title_short Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
title_full Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
title_fullStr Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
title_full_unstemmed Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
title_sort Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
author_id_str_mv 2cab1605807300324c85b4ec1a1a93c6
author_id_fullname_str_mv 2cab1605807300324c85b4ec1a1a93c6_***_Nobuhito Mori
author Nobuhito Mori
author2 Audrius Sabūnas
Takuya Miyashita
Nobuki Fukui
Tomoya Shimura
Nobuhito Mori
format Journal article
container_title Frontiers in Built Environment
container_volume 7
publishDate 2021
institution Swansea University
issn 2297-3362
doi_str_mv 10.3389/fbuil.2021.752599
publisher Frontiers Media SA
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
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hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Uncategorised{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Uncategorised
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description The Pacific region consists of numerous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), one of the most vulnerable to flooding caused by compound effects of sea level rise (SLR) and storms. Nevertheless, individual studies regarding the impact assessment for SIDS, such as the low-lying Kiribati, remain scarce. This study assessed the impact of climate change-induced storm surge and SLR compounding effects on Tarawa, the most populous atoll of Kiribati, the largest coral atoll nation. It projected the impact using a combined dynamic surge and SLR model based on the IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios and 1/100 and 1/50 years return period storm events. This approach allows estimating the inundation scope and the consecutive exposed population by the end of the 21st century. The results of this study show that the pace of SLR is pivotal for Tarawa, as the sea level rise alone can claim more than 50% of the territory and pose a threat to over 60% of the population under the most intense greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Furthermore, most coasts on the lagoon side are particularly vulnerable. In contrast, the contribution of extreme events is generally minimal due to low wind speeds and the absence of tropical cyclones (TC). Despite this, it is clear the compound effects are critical and may inescapably bring drastic changes to the atoll nations by the end of this century. The impact assessment in this study draws attention to the social impact of climate change on SIDS, most notably atoll islands, and evaluates their adaptation potential.
published_date 2021-11-10T04:15:47Z
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