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Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia

Sotaro Mori, Tomoya Shimura Orcid Logo, Takuya Miyashita Orcid Logo, Adrean Webb Orcid Logo, Nobuhito Mori

Coastal Engineering Journal, Volume: 64, Issue: 4, Pages: 630 - 647

Swansea University Author: Nobuhito Mori

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DOI (Published version): 10.1080/21664250.2022.2145682

Abstract

We analyzed tropical cyclones (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) and Maximum Potential Surge (MPS) for a long-term assessment of extreme TC intensity and storm surge heights. We investigated future changes in the MPI fields and MPS for different global warming levels based...

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Published in: Coastal Engineering Journal
ISSN: 2166-4250 1793-6292
Published: Informa UK Limited 2022
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa62098
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Abstract: We analyzed tropical cyclones (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) and Maximum Potential Surge (MPS) for a long-term assessment of extreme TC intensity and storm surge heights. We investigated future changes in the MPI fields and MPS for different global warming levels based on 150-year continuous scenario projections (HighResMIP) and large ensemble climate projections (d4PDF/d2PDF). Focusing on the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP), we analyzed future changes in the MPI and found that it reached a maximum in the latitudinal range of 30–40°N in September. We also analyzed future changes in the MPS in major bays of East Asia and along the Pacific coast of Japan. Future changes in the MPS were projected, and it was confirmed that changes in the MPS are larger in bays where large storm surge events have occurred in the past.
Keywords: Climate change; extreme storm surge; maximum potential intensity; maximum potential surg
College: Faculty of Science and Engineering
Funders: This work was conducted by the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU Program, Grant Number JPMXD0717935498) and SENTAN Program (Grant Number JPMXD072267853) supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) 19H00782.
Issue: 4
Start Page: 630
End Page: 647

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