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Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia

Sotaro Mori, Tomoya Shimura Orcid Logo, Takuya Miyashita Orcid Logo, Adrean Webb Orcid Logo, Nobuhito Mori

Coastal Engineering Journal, Volume: 64, Issue: 4, Pages: 630 - 647

Swansea University Author: Nobuhito Mori

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DOI (Published version): 10.1080/21664250.2022.2145682

Abstract

We analyzed tropical cyclones (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) and Maximum Potential Surge (MPS) for a long-term assessment of extreme TC intensity and storm surge heights. We investigated future changes in the MPI fields and MPS for different global warming levels based...

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Published in: Coastal Engineering Journal
ISSN: 2166-4250 1793-6292
Published: Informa UK Limited 2022
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa62098
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first_indexed 2023-01-10T08:47:37Z
last_indexed 2023-01-13T19:23:19Z
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spelling 2023-01-10T08:49:58.8116759 v2 62098 2022-12-01 Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia 2cab1605807300324c85b4ec1a1a93c6 Nobuhito Mori Nobuhito Mori true false 2022-12-01 FGSEN We analyzed tropical cyclones (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) and Maximum Potential Surge (MPS) for a long-term assessment of extreme TC intensity and storm surge heights. We investigated future changes in the MPI fields and MPS for different global warming levels based on 150-year continuous scenario projections (HighResMIP) and large ensemble climate projections (d4PDF/d2PDF). Focusing on the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP), we analyzed future changes in the MPI and found that it reached a maximum in the latitudinal range of 30–40°N in September. We also analyzed future changes in the MPS in major bays of East Asia and along the Pacific coast of Japan. Future changes in the MPS were projected, and it was confirmed that changes in the MPS are larger in bays where large storm surge events have occurred in the past. Journal Article Coastal Engineering Journal 64 4 630 647 Informa UK Limited 2166-4250 1793-6292 Climate change; extreme storm surge; maximum potential intensity; maximum potential surg 21 11 2022 2022-11-21 10.1080/21664250.2022.2145682 COLLEGE NANME Science and Engineering - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGSEN Swansea University This work was conducted by the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU Program, Grant Number JPMXD0717935498) and SENTAN Program (Grant Number JPMXD072267853) supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) 19H00782. 2023-01-10T08:49:58.8116759 2022-12-01T09:33:40.4616090 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Uncategorised Sotaro Mori 1 Tomoya Shimura 0000-0001-8284-0668 2 Takuya Miyashita 0000-0002-3196-2726 3 Adrean Webb 0000-0002-0677-3560 4 Nobuhito Mori 5 62098__26220__89948b136e494a4d95fbed25fb5fe56f.pdf 62098.pdf 2023-01-10T08:49:04.5784124 Output 14209803 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2022 The Author(s). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
title Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia
spellingShingle Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia
Nobuhito Mori
title_short Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia
title_full Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia
title_fullStr Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia
title_full_unstemmed Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia
title_sort Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia
author_id_str_mv 2cab1605807300324c85b4ec1a1a93c6
author_id_fullname_str_mv 2cab1605807300324c85b4ec1a1a93c6_***_Nobuhito Mori
author Nobuhito Mori
author2 Sotaro Mori
Tomoya Shimura
Takuya Miyashita
Adrean Webb
Nobuhito Mori
format Journal article
container_title Coastal Engineering Journal
container_volume 64
container_issue 4
container_start_page 630
publishDate 2022
institution Swansea University
issn 2166-4250
1793-6292
doi_str_mv 10.1080/21664250.2022.2145682
publisher Informa UK Limited
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Uncategorised{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Uncategorised
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description We analyzed tropical cyclones (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) and Maximum Potential Surge (MPS) for a long-term assessment of extreme TC intensity and storm surge heights. We investigated future changes in the MPI fields and MPS for different global warming levels based on 150-year continuous scenario projections (HighResMIP) and large ensemble climate projections (d4PDF/d2PDF). Focusing on the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP), we analyzed future changes in the MPI and found that it reached a maximum in the latitudinal range of 30–40°N in September. We also analyzed future changes in the MPS in major bays of East Asia and along the Pacific coast of Japan. Future changes in the MPS were projected, and it was confirmed that changes in the MPS are larger in bays where large storm surge events have occurred in the past.
published_date 2022-11-21T04:21:27Z
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score 11.012723

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