Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen

Oerlemans, Johannes; Kohler, Jack; Luckman, Adrian

doi:10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022

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Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen

Johannes Oerlemans

, Jack Kohler, Adrian Luckman

The Cryosphere, Volume: 16, Issue: 5, Pages: 2115 - 2126

Swansea University Author: Adrian Luckman

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DOI (Published version): 10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022

Abstract

The 26 km long tidewater glacier Tunabreen is the most frequently surging glacier in Svalbard, with four documented surges in the past 100 years. We model the evolution of this glacier with a minimal glacier model (MGM), in which ice mechanics, calving, and surging are parameterized. The model geome...

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Published in:	The Cryosphere
ISSN:	1994-0424
Published:	Copernicus GmbH 2022
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URI:	https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa62731
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spelling	2023-03-08T14:21:13.5744608 v2 62731 2023-02-24 Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen 008cb668b2671b653a88677f075799a9 0000-0002-9618-5905 Adrian Luckman Adrian Luckman true false 2023-02-24 SGE The 26 km long tidewater glacier Tunabreen is the most frequently surging glacier in Svalbard, with four documented surges in the past 100 years. We model the evolution of this glacier with a minimal glacier model (MGM), in which ice mechanics, calving, and surging are parameterized. The model geometry consists of a flow band to which three tributaries supply mass. The calving rate is set to the mean observed value for the period 2012–2019 and kept constant. For the past 120 years, a smooth equilibrium line altitude (ELA) history is reconstructed by finding the best possible match between observed and simulated glacier length. There is a modest correlation between this reconstructed ELA history and an ELA history based on meteorological observations from Longyearbyen.Runs with and without surging show that the effect of surging on the long-term glacier evolution is limited. Due to the low surface slope and associated strong height–mass-balance feedback, Tunabreen is very sensitive to changes in the ELA. For a constant future ELA equal to the reconstructed value for 2020, the glacier front will retreat by 8 km during the coming 100 years. For an increase in the ELA of 2 m a−1, the retreat is projected to be 13 km, and Tunabreen becomes a land-terminating glacier around 2100.The calving parameter is an important quantity: increasing its value by 50 % has about the same effect as a 35 m increase in the ELA, with the corresponding equilibrium glacier length being 17.5 km (as compared to 25.8 km in the reference state).Response times vary from 150 to 400 years, depending on the forcing and on the state of the glacier (tidewater or land-terminating). Journal Article The Cryosphere 16 5 2115 2126 Copernicus GmbH 1994-0424 1 6 2022 2022-06-01 10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022 COLLEGE NANME Geography COLLEGE CODE SGE Swansea University 2023-03-08T14:21:13.5744608 2023-02-24T13:17:26.4291864 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Johannes Oerlemans 0000-0001-5701-4161 1 Jack Kohler 2 Adrian Luckman 0000-0002-9618-5905 3 62731__26776__2fc34bda278246eba14f3e3a53c1e0f1.pdf 62731_VoR.pdf 2023-03-08T14:19:54.2862283 Output 2174810 application/pdf Version of Record true © Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title	Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen
spellingShingle	Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen Adrian Luckman
title_short	Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen
title_full	Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen
title_fullStr	Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen
title_sort	Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen
author_id_str_mv	008cb668b2671b653a88677f075799a9
author_id_fullname_str_mv	008cb668b2671b653a88677f075799a9_***_Adrian Luckman
author	Adrian Luckman
author2	Johannes Oerlemans Jack Kohler Adrian Luckman
format	Journal article
container_title	The Cryosphere
container_volume	16
container_issue	5
container_start_page	2115
publishDate	2022
institution	Swansea University
issn	1994-0424
doi_str_mv	10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022
publisher	Copernicus GmbH
college_str	Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id	facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title	Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id	facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title	Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str	School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
document_store_str	1
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description	The 26 km long tidewater glacier Tunabreen is the most frequently surging glacier in Svalbard, with four documented surges in the past 100 years. We model the evolution of this glacier with a minimal glacier model (MGM), in which ice mechanics, calving, and surging are parameterized. The model geometry consists of a flow band to which three tributaries supply mass. The calving rate is set to the mean observed value for the period 2012–2019 and kept constant. For the past 120 years, a smooth equilibrium line altitude (ELA) history is reconstructed by finding the best possible match between observed and simulated glacier length. There is a modest correlation between this reconstructed ELA history and an ELA history based on meteorological observations from Longyearbyen.Runs with and without surging show that the effect of surging on the long-term glacier evolution is limited. Due to the low surface slope and associated strong height–mass-balance feedback, Tunabreen is very sensitive to changes in the ELA. For a constant future ELA equal to the reconstructed value for 2020, the glacier front will retreat by 8 km during the coming 100 years. For an increase in the ELA of 2 m a−1, the retreat is projected to be 13 km, and Tunabreen becomes a land-terminating glacier around 2100.The calving parameter is an important quantity: increasing its value by 50 % has about the same effect as a 35 m increase in the ELA, with the corresponding equilibrium glacier length being 17.5 km (as compared to 25.8 km in the reference state).Response times vary from 150 to 400 years, depending on the forcing and on the state of the glacier (tidewater or land-terminating).
published_date	2022-06-01T04:23:03Z
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score	11.012678

Modelling the mass budget and future evolution of Tunabreen, central Spitsbergen

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