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Assessing the predictive performance of creep models using absolute rather than squared prediction errors: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel and 316H stainless steel
Materials at High Temperatures, Pages: 1 - 12
Swansea University Author:
Mark Evans
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© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).
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DOI (Published version): 10.1080/09603409.2023.2268332
Abstract
A reliable means of assessing the accuracy of a creep model’s predictions is fundamental to safe power plant operation. This paper introduces a method of decomposing the mean absolute prediction error for such a purpose to overcome the limitations that are inherent in the traditional approach of squ...
| Published in: | Materials at High Temperatures |
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| ISSN: | 0960-3409 1878-6413 |
| Published: |
Informa UK Limited
2023
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| Online Access: |
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| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64687 |
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| Abstract: |
A reliable means of assessing the accuracy of a creep model’s predictions is fundamental to safe power plant operation. This paper introduces a method of decomposing the mean absolute prediction error for such a purpose to overcome the limitations that are inherent in the traditional approach of squaring prediction errors to prevent over and underestimates of life offsetting each other. When this method is applied to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel and 316 H stainless steel, it was found that squared errors leads to overestimates of the average prediction error associated with a particular creep model, and it also dramatically underestimates the proportion of this error that is systematic in nature. These differences were more noticeable for 316 H stainless steel. |
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| Keywords: |
Mean percentage squared error, mean percentage absolute error, error decomposition, parametric creep models, life assessment |
| College: |
Faculty of Science and Engineering |
| Funders: |
Swansea University |
| Start Page: |
1 |
| End Page: |
12 |